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2025年9月钢铁PMI解读:钢铁行业供需两端承压运行 10月需求或回暖支撑价格回升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 02:10
Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a decline in demand and production, with the PMI for September at 47.7%, indicating a continuous decrease for two months, and the traditional peak season characteristics are not evident [1][3][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Weak real estate investment and slowing infrastructure construction have contributed to a lackluster demand in the steel market, with the new orders index dropping to 45.2%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points [3][4]. - The production index for the steel industry fell to 45.7%, down 2.3 percentage points, indicating a continued slowdown in production activities [8][12]. - Despite a slight increase in average daily crude steel production in early September, overall production levels have decreased compared to the previous month [8][12]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - Finished product inventory pressure is rising, with the inventory index reaching 54%, marking a two-month expansion and the highest level in nine months [8][12]. - Raw material prices remain high, with the purchasing price index above 60% for three consecutive months, leading to increased cost pressures for steelmaking [12][14]. - Steel prices showed minor fluctuations, with the Shanghai rebar price index indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous month, compressing profit margins for steel mills [14][16]. Future Outlook - October is expected to see a rebound in steel demand due to the resumption of outdoor construction post-holidays and the easing of extreme weather impacts [16][17]. - Steel mills are anticipated to increase production in response to rising demand, with a business activity expectation index of 67.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the coming month [17].
螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石:价格谨慎看多,策略各不同
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 04:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a weakening trend in the rebar and hot-rolled coil markets, driven by expectations of anti-involution policies and awaiting results from important meetings [1] - Rebar spot prices in Hangzhou and Guangzhou decreased by 20, with a significant drop in small sample construction steel transactions to 90,900 tons [1] - The market is currently influenced more by policy expectations than by fundamentals, maintaining a cautious bullish judgment and suggesting holding a sell position on out-of-the-money put options (RB2510P3000) [1] Group 2 - Hot-rolled coil prices also weakened, with declines of 20 in Shanghai and Lecong, driven by similar policy expectations and a decrease in new export orders for steel mills [1] - The market is characterized by a successful transfer of steel mill inventory to midstream, but terminal replenishment remains low, indicating a cautious bullish outlook with a strategy of observation [1] - In the iron ore sector, expectations of anti-involution policies provide support for industrial product prices, with healthy supply-demand structures for imported ore, although long-term trends may favor coal over iron ore [1]