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烧碱:高利润背景下估值承压
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 01:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In June, the maintenance of caustic soda and alumina restocking can still support the market, but after restocking, the market may tend to short the chlor-alkali profit under the negative demand feedback [2]. - There are still many new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Although the profit is not in the red, the manufacturers' load is generally at a high level. The impact of chlorine-consuming downstream on caustic soda supply needs attention [2]. - Considering the overall decline in coal and electricity prices this year, self - supplied power plant enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - connected power enterprises still have a large profit margin, which will open up the downward space for caustic soda valuation. The change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2308, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot in Shandong is 850, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong is equivalent to 2656 on the futures market, and the basis is 348 [1]. - After the price of liquid caustic soda of major enterprises in Shandong was lowered over the weekend, the prices of other enterprises remained unchanged, but the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises was large. The focus today is still on the change in delivery volume [1]. Market Condition Analysis - Alumina restocking and caustic soda maintenance in June can support the market. If an alumina enterprise in Shandong restocks, the next price cut may occur after late June. After restocking, the market may short the chlor - alkali profit under negative demand feedback [2]. - There are many new maintenance plans for caustic soda in June, especially in Shandong. Manufacturers' load is generally high due to non - loss profits. The impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply needs attention, though it was limited in Q1 due to high caustic soda profits [2]. - Considering the decline in coal and electricity prices this year, self - supplied power plant enterprises have no motivation to cut production, and grid - connected power enterprises still have profit margins, which will open up the downward space for caustic soda valuation. The change in liquid chlorine price also needs attention [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is - 1, indicating a bearish trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].