氧化铝周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 弱现实与减产预期博弈 氧化铝弱势震荡不改 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，国产矿偏紧，矿价稳定。进口矿AXIS矿业公 司的工业开发许可证被撤销，但对当前进口矿影 响有限，需求端对矿石供应预期充裕，采购谨慎， 矿价依旧承压。供应端广西、山西均有氧化铝厂进 行检修，氧化铝供应略有减少，上周开工产能9590 万吨，减少40万吨。消费端电解铝行业开工产能维 稳，需求变化不大。仓单库存周内增加30282吨， 至25.4万吨，厂库0吨，持平。 ⚫ 整体，氧化铝减产规模有限，供应仍充裕，供需平 ...

国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 烧碱：震荡偏弱 PVC：趋势偏弱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：震荡偏弱 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.1%，较上周环比-0.7%。分区域来看，华北、东北负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最 大+3.9%至92.8%；华北+2.3%至77.8%，其中山东+2.0%至89.5%。华东、华中有装置检修、减产，开工下滑，华东-2.2%至79.5%，华 | | --- | --- | | | 中-0.9%至78.2%。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，由于高产量、高库存的格局，利润被持续压缩，氧化铝减产只是时间问题，本周广西、山西均有氧化铝厂进行检修。虽然年 底到明年年 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the expected alumina production cut, and future market trends depend on whether this expectation is confirmed or refuted. In the long - term, alumina production cuts will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On October 20, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2344, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was 156 [1] Spot News - On October 17, the caustic soda market in Shandong showed mixed trends. In the eastern part, inventory declined and some prices rose slightly; in the western part, high - price sales were poor and prices continued to fall [1] Market Condition Analysis - In October, there were new maintenance plans in Shandong, Hebei and other regions, so the supply pressure of caustic soda was not large. On the demand side, alumina plants in Hebei made concentrated purchases. With the subsequent shipment of orders from other provinces, Shandong was expected to continue destocking, and a sharp decline in the short - term Shandong market was unlikely. The high - output and high - inventory pattern of the alumina industry compressed profits, and marginal production capacity supply might be affected in the future. Although there was a demand for 5.6 million tons of new production capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to early next year, the low - profit situation would also lead to a decline in the inventory levels of other alumina plants. The expected impact of alumina production start - up and production cuts on caustic soda could basically offset each other. In winter, it was the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply - demand gap caused by inventory accumulation might be limited [2]