1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Coke - Supply: Coke production has increased due to the full implementation of the first round of price hikes, narrowing the losses of coke enterprises and boosting production enthusiasm [5] - Demand: Although steel mill profits have improved after consecutive price cuts, overall demand is weak during the off - season. The daily average hot metal production is expected to remain below 2.3 million tons before the Spring Festival, with limited upward drive [5] - Inventory: Steel mills have replenished their inventories, while coke enterprise inventories have decreased. Port and total coke inventories have increased. Steel mill inventory levels are currently relatively high compared to the same period, and coke enterprise inventory levels are relatively low [5] - Profit: The losses of independent coke enterprises have narrowed, with a ton - coke profit of - 10 yuan/ton (+45) as of February 6 [5] - Conclusion: The off - season demand is unlikely to improve significantly, driving the market downward. However, due to frequent external coal - related events, the cost support for coke may strengthen in the medium to long term. A medium - to - long - term bullish and volatile approach is recommended, with the coke index expected to operate between 1660 - 1790. Attention should be paid to risk control during the holiday season [5] Coking Coal - Supply: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mine production has decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has declined. Coking coal supply is expected to continue to weaken before the festival [7] - Demand: Coking coal daily consumption has increased due to the rise in coke production. However, during the pre - festival off - season, the daily average hot metal production is expected to remain below 2.3 million tons, with limited demand improvement [7] - Inventory: Steel mill and coke enterprise inventories have increased, while coal mine and port inventories have decreased. The total coking coal inventory has increased [7] - Conclusion: Frequent external coal - related events may drive up international coking coal prices, providing some support for domestic prices. A medium - to - long - term bullish and volatile approach is recommended, with the coking coal index expected to operate between 1110 - 1240. Attention should be paid to risk control before the festival [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - As of February 6, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 631,400 tons (+300), and that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 472,400 tons (+230). The total output of all - sample coking enterprises and 247 steel mills was 1.1038 million tons (+530) [5][17] Profit - As of February 6, the ton - coke profit of independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton (+45) [21] Demand - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal production was 2.2858 million tons (+6000); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8.199 million tons (- 32,700); the steel mill profit rate was 39.39% (+0); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.69% (+0.22); and the blast furnace operating rate was 79.53% (+0.53) [5][25] Inventory - As of February 6, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 827,400 tons (- 16,500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.9238 million tons (+141,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 2.011 million tons (+30,400), and the total coke inventory was 9.7622 million tons (+155,800) [5][29] Inventory Available Days - As of February 6, the inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants was 12.76 days (+0.22) [32] Basis and Spread - As of February 6, the basis of the 05 contract was - 83, a decrease of 18 from the previous week; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 70.5, a decrease of 4.5. The basis and spread have weakened, and the current basis is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [36] Coking Coal Supply - As of February 6, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.9253 million tons (- 52,900), with an operating rate of 86.67% (- 2.46); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26,310 tons (- 460), with an operating rate of 35.54% (- 1.26) [8][43] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has decreased [45] Demand - As of February 6, the total coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 1.09469 million tons (+593,500), with available days of 16.51 days (+0.79), corresponding to a daily consumption of 663,000 tons (+44,000); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 824,200 tons (+98,400), with available days of 13.12 days (+0.09), corresponding to a daily consumption of 628,200 tons (+32,000); the total daily consumption was 1.2912 million tons (+76,000) [50] Inventory - As of February 6, the total port inventory was 2.7276 million tons (- 136,200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 824,200 tons (+98,400); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1.30239 million tons (+676,000); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 264,650 tons (- 25,300); the total coking coal inventory was 2.664 million tons (+612,900) [8][57] Inventory Available Days - As of February 6, the coking coal inventory available days of 230 independent coking plants was 16.51 days (+0.79); the coking coal inventory available days of 247 steel enterprises was 13.12 days (+0.09) [57] Basis and Spread - As of February 6, the basis of the 05 contract was 69, an increase of 3 from the previous week; the 5 - 9 contract spread was - 79, an increase of 5.5 from the previous week. The basis and spread have strengthened, and the coking coal market shows a contango structure [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are further relaxed. The coking coal and coke markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices running weakly. The mid - to long - term strategy is to adopt a bearish approach on rallies. The coke index is expected to operate in the range of 1500 - 1650, and the coking coal index in the range of 950 - 1030 - 1110 [6][8] - An important meeting will be held in mid - December, which may change market expectations and sentiment Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, raw material prices continue to decline, and coke enterprises still have positive profits, with high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the resumption of production of some overhauled coke enterprises, the coke production of coke enterprises and steel mills has increased month - on - month. As of December 5, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 64.53 tons (+0.77), and that of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 46.62 tons (+0.3), with a total output of 111.15 tons (+1.07) [7][15] Profit - After the first round of coke price cuts, the coking profit has narrowed. As of December 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 30 yuan/ton (-16) [6][19] Demand - Terminal demand is poor, steel spot prices are under pressure, steel mills' profits are poor, and the willingness to overhaul is strong. The molten iron output has declined month - on - month. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the molten iron output is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the daily average molten iron output was 232.3 tons (-2.38); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 828.95 tons (-26.76); the profitability rate of steel mills was 36.36% (+1.3); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.08% (-0.9); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.16% (-0.93) [7][23] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has increased month - on - month, and there may be some inventory accumulation pressure in the future; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month; the total coke inventory has decreased month - on - month. As of December 5, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 76.44 tons (+4.68); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 625.25 tons (-0.27); the total inventory of four major ports was 181.3 tons (-6.1), and the total coke inventory was 882.99 tons (-1.69) [7][27] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills' sample coking plants were 11.29 days (+0) [30] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1594 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 9, a decrease of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 149, an increase of 7.5 compared with last week. After the coke price cut, the spot price has fallen more, so the basis has weakened. The far - month contracts are more affected by the coking coal futures, so the spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [34] Coking Coal Supply - Some coal mines in the main production areas have resumed production. Near the end of the year, some coal mines are close to completing their production plans, and the production rhythm may slow down, resulting in a month - on - month decline in domestic coal mine supply. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal will arrive at ports successively in December, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market. As of December 5, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 190.42 tons (-0.92), with an operating rate of 85.59% (-0.42); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 27.12 tons (+0.54), with an operating rate of 36.53% (+0.21) [8][41] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased month - on - month and is at a high level [43] Demand - The coke production has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption of coking coal has increased. However, the molten iron output is still in a downward channel, and the medium - to long - term demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 857.43 tons (-3.5), with available days of 12.68 days (-0.16), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 67.62 tons (-3.5); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03), with available days of 12.88 days (-0.13), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 61.98 tons (+0.39); the total daily consumption was 129.6 tons (+0.99) [8][48] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory levels of coke enterprises and steel mills are at the median level in the same period over the years. The coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month, and there may be an inventory accumulation expectation in the future; the port inventory has increased month - on - month and is at the median level in the same period over the years. The total coking coal inventory has increased. As of December 5, the total port inventory was 296.5 tons (+2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1009.2 tons (-1.1); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 247.01 tons (+23.09); the total coking coal inventory was 2350.98 tons (+20.96) [8][55] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants were 12.68 days (-0.16); and those for 247 steel enterprises were 12.88 days (-0.13) [55] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1168 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 112, an increase of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 84, an increase of 1 compared with last week. Both the spot and futures prices of coking coal have weakened. The expected arrival of seaborne coal and the continuous weakening of demand have led to a larger decline in the futures market, so the basis has strengthened, and the spread has slightly strengthened. The coking coal contracts in different months show a contango structure, indicating that the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [59]