Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are further relaxed. The coking coal and coke markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with prices running weakly. The mid - to long - term strategy is to adopt a bearish approach on rallies. The coke index is expected to operate in the range of 1500 - 1650, and the coking coal index in the range of 950 - 1030 - 1110 [6][8] - An important meeting will be held in mid - December, which may change market expectations and sentiment Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, raw material prices continue to decline, and coke enterprises still have positive profits, with high production enthusiasm. Coupled with the resumption of production of some overhauled coke enterprises, the coke production of coke enterprises and steel mills has increased month - on - month. As of December 5, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 64.53 tons (+0.77), and that of 247 steel mills' coking plants was 46.62 tons (+0.3), with a total output of 111.15 tons (+1.07) [7][15] Profit - After the first round of coke price cuts, the coking profit has narrowed. As of December 5, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 30 yuan/ton (-16) [6][19] Demand - Terminal demand is poor, steel spot prices are under pressure, steel mills' profits are poor, and the willingness to overhaul is strong. The molten iron output has declined month - on - month. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the molten iron output is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the daily average molten iron output was 232.3 tons (-2.38); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 828.95 tons (-26.76); the profitability rate of steel mills was 36.36% (+1.3); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.08% (-0.9); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.16% (-0.93) [7][23] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has increased month - on - month, and there may be some inventory accumulation pressure in the future; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month; the total coke inventory has decreased month - on - month. As of December 5, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 76.44 tons (+4.68); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 625.25 tons (-0.27); the total inventory of four major ports was 181.3 tons (-6.1), and the total coke inventory was 882.99 tons (-1.69) [7][27] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coke inventory for 247 steel mills' sample coking plants were 11.29 days (+0) [30] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1594 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 9, a decrease of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 149, an increase of 7.5 compared with last week. After the coke price cut, the spot price has fallen more, so the basis has weakened. The far - month contracts are more affected by the coking coal futures, so the spread has strengthened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [34] Coking Coal Supply - Some coal mines in the main production areas have resumed production. Near the end of the year, some coal mines are close to completing their production plans, and the production rhythm may slow down, resulting in a month - on - month decline in domestic coal mine supply. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal will arrive at ports successively in December, which has a certain negative impact on the futures market. As of December 5, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 sample mines was 190.42 tons (-0.92), with an operating rate of 85.59% (-0.42); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 27.12 tons (+0.54), with an operating rate of 36.53% (+0.21) [8][41] Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased month - on - month and is at a high level [43] Demand - The coke production has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption of coking coal has increased. However, the molten iron output is still in a downward channel, and the medium - to long - term demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline. As of December 5, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 857.43 tons (-3.5), with available days of 12.68 days (-0.16), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 67.62 tons (-3.5); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03), with available days of 12.88 days (-0.13), and the corresponding daily consumption of coking coal was 61.98 tons (+0.39); the total daily consumption was 129.6 tons (+0.99) [8][48] Inventory - Steel mills maintain just - in - time procurement, and their inventory has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory of coke enterprises has slightly decreased month - on - month; the inventory levels of coke enterprises and steel mills are at the median level in the same period over the years. The coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month, and there may be an inventory accumulation expectation in the future; the port inventory has increased month - on - month and is at the median level in the same period over the years. The total coking coal inventory has increased. As of December 5, the total port inventory was 296.5 tons (+2); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 798.27 tons (-3.03); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1009.2 tons (-1.1); the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 247.01 tons (+23.09); the total coking coal inventory was 2350.98 tons (+20.96) [8][55] Inventory Available Days - As of December 5, the available days of coking coal inventory for 230 independent coking plants were 12.68 days (-0.16); and those for 247 steel enterprises were 12.88 days (-0.13) [55] Basis and Spread - As of December 5, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1168 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was 112, an increase of 11 compared with last week; the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts was - 84, an increase of 1 compared with last week. Both the spot and futures prices of coking coal have weakened. The expected arrival of seaborne coal and the continuous weakening of demand have led to a larger decline in the futures market, so the basis has strengthened, and the spread has slightly strengthened. The coking coal contracts in different months show a contango structure, indicating that the market is pessimistic about the supply - demand pattern of near - month contracts [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - **Coke**: The sixth round of coke price increase has been implemented, leading to positive profits for coke enterprises and a rebound in coke production. Hot metal production remains at a high level, strongly supporting the demand side. Coke supply and demand are tight, and the total coke inventory is decreasing. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, so attention should be paid to coal mine supply. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coke index expected to trade between 1600 - 1780. Key events to watch include coke price increases/decreases, hot metal production, steel sales, and coke enterprise inventories [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production is at a low level, and the upcoming September 3 parade may further reduce production. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The downstream replenishment intensity has slowed down, with middle and lower - stream inventories decreasing and upstream coal mine inventories increasing. There may be an expected increase in seaborne coal imports. Adopt a volatile trading strategy, with the coking coal index expected to trade between 1120 - 1300. Key events to watch include domestic coal mine production, hot metal production, Mongolian coal customs clearance, and downstream replenishment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coke Supply - After the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits turned positive, coke production of coke enterprises rebounded, while that of steel mills declined, but the total coke production increased. As of August 15, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.38 million tons (+0.28), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.73 million tons (-0.07), and the total output was 112.11 million tons (+0.21) [16]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase led to positive profits for coke enterprises. As of August 15, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 20 yuan/ton (+36) [20]. Demand - Last week, hot metal production increased slightly month - on - month. Supported by non - five major steel products demand and good steel mill profits, the seasonal decline in hot metal production is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, strongly supporting coke demand. As of August 15, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons (+0.34); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 8716300 tons (+24200); the steel mill profitability rate was 65.8% (-2.6); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.22% (+0.13); the blast furnace operating rate was 83.59% (-0.16) [24]. Inventory - Last week, coke inventories at all levels decreased. Steel mills actively purchased, and the inventory of upstream coke enterprises continued to decline. The total coke inventory decreased. As of August 15, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 625100 tons (-72200); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6098000 tons (-94800); the total inventory of four major ports was 2151100 tons (-30400), and the total coke inventory was 8874200 tons (-197400) [28]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants decreased to 10.83 days (-0.08) [32]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1605 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 125, the May contract was - 227, and the September contract was - 48. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [35]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 76.5, and the January - May contracts was - 102. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [39]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production continued to decline, and the September 3 parade is expected to further reduce production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100000 tons. Seaborne coal may have a certain increase, which will have a bearish impact on the futures market. As of August 15, the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1879100 tons (-3600), with an operating rate of 83.73% (-0.16); the daily average output of 314 sample coal washing plants was 26400 tons (+360), with an operating rate of 36.51% (+0.29) [44]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has reached over 100000 tons [46]. Demand - Coke production increased month - on - month but is at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 15, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 8294100 tons (-33400), with available days of 11.93 days (-0.11), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 695200 tons (+3600); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600), with available days of 12.97 days (-0.02), and the converted daily consumption was 621300 tons (-1200); the total daily consumption was 1316500 tons (+2300) [51]. Coal Washing Plant Inventory - Due to reduced downstream replenishment enthusiasm, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased. As of August 15, the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 2970300 tons (+89200) [55]. Inventory - After a period of replenishment, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has weakened. Last week, coke enterprises, steel mills, and ports all reduced their inventories, while coal mine inventories increased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of August 15, the total port inventory was 2554900 tons (-218500); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8058000 tons (-28600); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9768800 tons (-110400); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 2576700 tons (+120100); the total coking coal inventory was 22958400 tons (-237400). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.93 days (-0.11); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.97 days (-0.02) [62]. Basis - As of August 15, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1008 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 223, the May contract was - 279, and the September contract was - 73. The current basis has no significant impact on the futures price [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 15, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 149.5, and the January - May contracts was - 56. There are currently no calendar spread trading opportunities [71].