Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coke market is expected to continue its short - term rebound, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5/10 - day moving averages and the pressure near the previous high [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of February 27, the inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 7.54 tons to 107.82 tons, reaching an 8 - month high; port coke inventory decreased slightly by 2.16 tons to 261.7 tons; steel mill coke inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 675.11 tons. The comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.77% to 1044.63 tons, ending a 9 - consecutive - increase trend [1] - Profit: During the Spring Festival, the coke price remained stable. This week, the profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants remained stable at - 8 yuan/ton, and the profit per ton in each region basically remained unchanged [1] - Downstream Demand: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production in steel mills increased, and supply rebounded. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.09% to 80.22% month - on - month and 1.93% year - on - year; the profitability rate increased by 1.3% to 39.83% month - on - month and decreased by 10.39% year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output increased by 2.79 tons to 233.28 tons, reaching the highest level in nearly three months [1] - Upstream Coking Coal: During the Spring Festival, coal mines were on holiday and production stopped, and coking coal supply decreased. After the holiday consumption, the inventories of coking enterprises and steel mills decreased. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal decreased by 278.4 tons to 2647.31 tons month - on - month, 3.94% lower year - on - year [1] News - The press conference of the 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held this afternoon. The spokesperson said that the supporting conditions and basic trend of China's long - term economic growth remain unchanged [2] - The comprehensive coke inventory stopped increasing and started to decline; the hot metal output increased this week. During the important meetings, attention should be paid to the maintenance intensity of steel mills. The Political Bureau meeting at the macro - level sent positive signals, and as the Two Sessions are approaching, policy expectations still exist [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing fluctuations with recent price adjustments and varying profitability among different regions, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [6]. Supply - As of November 13, the average daily production of coking coal from independent coking plants is 630,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 tons. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is 462,000 tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,092,000 tons per day, which is a decrease of 5,000 tons week-on-week [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, reflecting an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week. The blast furnace operating rate is 82.81%, down by 0.32% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 88.80%, up by 1.00% week-on-week. The profit margin for steel mills stands at 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [4]. Inventory - As of November 13, the total inventory of coking coal is 9.4 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 74,000 tons. Independent coking plants hold 582,000 tons, down by 2,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills have 6.224 million tons, decreasing by 42,000 tons week-on-week. Port inventories are at 2.595 million tons, down by 30,000 tons week-on-week [5]. Price Trends - As of November 17, coking coal futures are experiencing low volatility with a significant drop in night trading. The main contract for coking coal (2601) increased by 40.5 (+2.43%) to 1710.0, while the far-month contract (2605) rose by 35.5 (+1.96%) to 1847.5. The price gap between contracts has strengthened to -138.0 [1]. Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal across 30 independent coking plants is -34 yuan. In specific regions, the average profit for Shanxi's primary coking coal is -37 yuan, while Shandong's primary coking coal shows a profit of 26 yuan. Inner Mongolia's secondary coking coal has an average loss of 90 yuan, and Hebei's primary coking coal has a profit of 16 yuan [2]. Market Sentiment - The recent market sentiment indicates a divergence between futures and spot prices, with port trade quotes declining. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal has been implemented, but there are still plans for further increases. The supply side shows some price easing in Shanxi, while demand is pressured by low steel mill profits and environmental regulations affecting production [6]. Strategy Outlook - The market is viewed with a bearish bias, with a trading range reference of 1600-1750, suggesting a cautious approach in the current environment [6].