Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the downward trend of coke was driven by increased coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, along with policy factors. However, in December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward pressure on coke may ease, and the main contract is expected to gradually stabilize. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Market Situation of Coke Futures - In November, the J2601 contract of coke futures dropped 11.4%, with the lowest price at 1562.0 yuan/ton. As of December 3, the main contract closed at 1624.5 yuan/ton, down 1.23% daily [2] Spot Market Situation - Since mid - November, coking coal prices have weakened due to increased supply and futures drag. As of November 28, the daily output of coking coal in 523 mines was 76.4 tons, up 2.6 tons/day from November 7. In November, the Ganqimaodu Port's cumulative customs clearance increased by 38.6% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. The coking coal auction failure rate rose to 30% - 60% in mid - to - late November. On December 3, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropped significantly from the November high. On December 1, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, but the subsequent price cut space may be limited [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the short term, coke supply has increased while demand has decreased. As of November 28, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 110.08 tons, up 1.19 tons week - on - week. The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 234.68 tons, down 1.60 tons week - on - week. In the future, the demand pressure on coke is expected to ease [4] Overall Conclusion - In November, coke futures declined due to negative factors in the fundamentals and policies. In December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the negative drivers for coke are weakening, and the main contract is expected to stabilize at the lower edge of the shock range. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, on December 1st, the first round of price cut was implemented. The FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port dropped by 50 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton, and the ex - warehouse price was 1,450 yuan/ton. There is still an expectation of further price cuts in the market. In terms of supply and demand, the latest data from Steel Union shows that the daily average coke output was 110.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons; the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills dropped to 35.06%, with large - scale losses in steel mills and pressure on the demand side remaining. Overall, there is still uncertainty in the coking coal supply in December, and there is some resistance to further decline in coke futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the actual production situation of coal mines [6][35]. - For coking coal, there is no obvious difference in the demand side, and the supply side is the core factor leading the market trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. In addition, the recent coking coal output was not affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic that previously supported the upward trend of coal prices. The market sentiment gradually faded, and coking coal futures have continued to correct since November. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expectation of coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, there is some resistance to further decline in coking coal futures. The main contract rebounded at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, and the subsequent focus lies on the coal mine production situation [6][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, the average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.68%. The average price of second - hand residential buildings was 13,143 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. High - end improvement projects in core cities drove up the price of new residential buildings, while the second - hand housing market faced downward pressure due to high listing volume and weak expectations [8]. - On December 2nd, the online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan market dropped. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1,430 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1,444 yuan/ton, and 40,000 tons were traded, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared with November 28th and a cumulative decrease of 158 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The FOB price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared with the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,450 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 10.49%, and a decrease of 13.69% compared with the same period [13]. - The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared with the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 5.37%, and a decrease of 3.09% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,710 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month and year - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%, and an increase of 1.18% compared with the same period [13]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke contract was 1,629.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.45%. The highest price was 1,629.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,606 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 14,257, a decrease of 11,760, and the open interest was 30,635, a decrease of 1,966 [14]. - The closing price of the active coking coal contract was 1,096.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86%. The highest price was 1,103.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,085 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 369,820, a decrease of 222,199, and the open interest was 397,617, a decrease of 25,719 [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - Charts related to coke inventory include the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory [15][16][20]. - Charts related to coking coal inventory include the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants [21][24][31]. - Other charts include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [28][30][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlook is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current price situation, supply - demand relationship, and the key role of coal mine production in the future market trend [35][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the coke主力合约 closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86% intraday. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment changed, and the coke futures rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and the coking coal supply in July should be monitored [5][33]. - On June 26, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 819.5 points, up 3.60% intraday. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month, and the import volume was also restricted. After the coking coal price reached a multi - year low in early June, the contract started to rise. The recovery of Shanxi's production in July should be focused on [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From April to May 2025, the number of global new shipbuilding orders decreased by 46, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month. Compared with May 2024, the number decreased by 111, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, and South Korea ranked second [8]. - On June 26, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from June 5. All 102,400 tons were sold at the base price [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade flat - price coke is 1,220 yuan/ton, down 3.94% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price is 1,140 yuan/ton, down 2.56% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 865 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 1.65% week - on - week; the price of Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke主力合约 was 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 and an open interest of 51,299, an increase of 24 from the previous trading day [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal主力合约 was 819.5 points, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 and an open interest of 564,662, an increase of 40,404 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [14][21][27]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term rebound of coke futures and the upward trend of coking coal contracts, and suggesting to pay attention to the coking coal supply in July and the production recovery in Shanxi [33][34].