Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways with a wide - range oscillation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to support near the previous low, with a low - buying mindset [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand. Downstream steel mills are announcing shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and pre - holiday restocking is nearing completion, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses are further expanding, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Coupled with a generally warm macro - environment and frequent fiscal and monetary policy announcements, there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of January 23, due to the expansion of losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 51 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 8 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintains off - season characteristics. Although steel mill profits have slightly recovered, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side remains limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points from last week to 40.69%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly recovered to 85.51%, and the daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, recently, 4 steel mills have released maintenance plans, and shutdown and maintenance plans for steel mills during the Spring Festival are being announced one after another [2]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: January 27, 2026 [1] 2. Price Information Spot Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1,483.00, with a daily change of 57.00, weekly change of 57.00, monthly change of 33.00, and annual change of 11.76% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 1,040.00, with a daily change of 24.00, weekly change of -5.00, monthly change of 70.00, and annual change of 13.04% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Mongolian No. 5 is 1,400.00, with no daily change, weekly change of 60.00, monthly change of 60.00, and annual change of 2.94% [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1,640.00, with no daily change, weekly change of 20.00, monthly change of 40.00, and annual change of 17.14% [2] International Prices - The latest price of Peak Downs is 260.00, with a daily change of 2.00, weekly change of 18.00, monthly change of 32.00, and annual change of 64.00 [2] - The latest price of Goonyella is 260.00, with a daily change of 0.40, weekly change of 17.00, monthly change of 31.00, and annual change of 61.00 [2] Futures Prices - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1,151.00, with a daily change of 7.00, weekly change of 1.00, monthly change of 24.00, and annual change of 0.35% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 1,227.50, with a daily change of 9.00, no weekly change, monthly change of 23.00, and annual change of 0.37% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 1,394.50, with a daily change of 7.50, weekly change of 3.00, monthly change of 351.50, and annual change of 11.78% [2] 3. Inventory Information - The total inventory is 4,099.62, with a weekly change of 12.02, monthly change of 88.22, and annual change of -15.89% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 274.35, with a weekly change of 1.98, monthly change of -8.55, and annual change of -37.42% [2] - The port inventory is 298.90, with a weekly change of -0.90, monthly change of 12.73, and annual change of -35.20% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 802.20, with a weekly change of 4.47, monthly change of -2.79, and annual change of -3.06% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 1,132.85, with a weekly change of 61.17, monthly change of 96.56, and annual change of -2.21% [2] - The coking plant coke inventory is 85.71, with a weekly change of 0.33, monthly change of 0.19, and annual change of 0.86% [2] 4. Production and Utilization Information - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.41, with a weekly change of -0.14, monthly change of 0.75, and annual change of -0.29% [2] 5. Basis and Spread Information - The basis for Futures Contract 05 is -16.75, with a daily change of -7.00, weekly change of -1.00, monthly change of 49.56, and annual change of 35.08 [2] - The basis for Futures Contract 09 is -93.25, with a daily change of -9.00, no weekly change, monthly change of 50.56, and annual change of -0.27 [2] - The basis for Futures Contract 01 is -260.25, with a daily change of -7.50, weekly change of -3.00, monthly change of -277.94, and annual change of 0.71 [2] - The spread between Futures Contract 05 and 09 is -76.50, with a daily change of -2.00, weekly change of 1.00, monthly change of 1.00, and annual change of 0.01 [2] - The spread between Futures Contract 09 and 01 is -167.00, with a daily change of 1.50, weekly change of -3.00, monthly change of -328.50, and annual change of 5.82 [2] - The spread between Futures Contract 01 and 05 is 243.50, with a daily change of 0.50, weekly change of 2.00, monthly change of 327.50, and annual change of 1.42 [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant decline in the price of coking coal, with a drop of 3.14% in the 2605 contract [2][9] Group 2 - The primary reason for the price drop is the expected increase in supply due to accelerated coal mine resumption after New Year's, with no reduction in imported coal and a rapid recovery in Mongolian coal customs clearance [3][9] - Coking coal inventories have been increasing for six consecutive weeks, while upstream coal mines have seen eight weeks of inventory accumulation, leading to market concerns despite absolute inventory levels being lower than the same period last year [3][9] - Demand recovery remains uncertain, as steel mills have reduced production, resulting in low molten iron output, and actual resumption of blast furnaces will depend on steel mill profits and expectations [3][9] - The support for thermal coal prices has weakened, with no significant improvement in fundamentals and a month-on-month decline in thermal coal prices, leading to a divergence between thermal and coking coal prices [3][9] Group 3 - Overall, the supply and demand for coking coal are relatively loose, with the accumulation trend not easing, and the market outlook remains pessimistic, resulting in weak price performance [10] - There is still an expectation for inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, which may provide some support for coal prices, but after replenishment, prices may loosen again [10]