大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-3） 焦煤： 6、预期：下游焦钢企业库存偏低，整体需求尚可，且当前铁水产量仍处相对高位，钢企减产动力不足， 焦煤刚需稳定。但当前煤价涨幅较大，利润承压下，目前焦企提产空间有限，部分小幅限产，影响原料 煤需求力度释放有限，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：目前产地供应尚未有明显提升，煤矿挺价意愿较强。焦钢企业原料库存处较低水平，补库 需求仍存，且焦炭第三轮提涨开启，带动多煤种报价继续上调，线上竞拍整体成交表现良好，成交率较 高。考虑煤矿供应紧张持续，下游用户拉运积极，市场整体供应量仍偏紧，煤企对后市仍有看涨预期； 偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1390，基差104；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has not fully recovered as coal mines in production areas are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts. The market is in a state where prices are fluctuating, with some over - inflated coal prices dropping. The overall haulage is fair, and coal mines have relatively low inventory pressure. With high - level iron ore production providing strong support for raw material demand, but considering the game between steel and coke after the sixth round of coke price increases and cautious purchasing by steel and coking enterprises for high - priced coal, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to be on the strong side [2]. - **For Coke**: The cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased as raw coal prices have declined, but the overall capacity release remains limited. Due to the military parade, Shandong coking plants have received oral notices for environmental production restrictions of 30 - 50%, further constraining coke supply. With stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price of coke is expected to be stable and on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply has not fully recovered, prices are fluctuating, and the overall haulage is good with low inventory pressure at coal mines; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1200, basis is - 113, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With high - level iron ore production, raw material demand is strongly supported. However, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there is a game between steel and coke, and purchasing of high - priced coal is cautious. Short - term price is expected to be strong [2]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Cost pressure has eased, but capacity release is limited. Shandong coking plants are facing production restrictions, further constraining supply; bullish [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1630, basis is - 182, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With tightening supply and stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price is expected to be stable and strong [5]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by steel and coking enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and rising blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Squeezed profit margins in steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [7]. **Inventory Data** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].