1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal is slightly tight but relatively stable, with some coal prices rising slightly. However, due to the terminal's rigid - demand purchasing and the pessimistic sentiment of coke price cuts, the coking coal price is under pressure. Considering the steel mills' losses, production cuts, and the expected decline of coke prices, the coking coal price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: The decline of raw coal prices has led to a decrease in coke producers' profits, and some coke producers have limited production due to environmental controls. But the overall coke supply is still loose. With the steel mills' cautious procurement and the continuous decline of raw coal prices, the third round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and the coke market is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production of coal mines is slow, supply is slightly tight and stable. Market sentiment has improved slightly, but the terminal is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the price is under pressure; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1140, with a basis of 32, and the spot is at a premium to the futures; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week; bullish [2]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is increasing; bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The coking coal price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: The decline of raw coal prices has reduced coke producers' profits, and some have limited production. But the supply is still loose, and the steel mills are controlling inventory; bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1630, with a basis of - 110, and the spot is at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; bullish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is long, and the long position is increasing; bullish [7]. - **Expectation**: The coke market is expected to be weak in the short term [7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - **Bullish Factors**: Rising hot metal production and difficult - to - increase supply [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - **Bullish Factors**: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - **Bearish Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [9]. 3.3 Price Information - **Port Metallurgical Coke Price Index (December 19, 17:30)**: The prices of different grades and types of metallurgical coke from various ports and regions are provided, with most prices remaining unchanged [10]. - **Imported Coking Coal Spot Price (December 19, 17:30)**: The prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [11]. 3.4 Inventory Information - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; the coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Producer Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coke producers is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. 3.5 Other Information - **Capacity Utilization Rate of Coke Ovens**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke producers nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Downstream coking and steel enterprises have low inventories and stable demand, with high pig iron production and limited motivation for steel mills to cut production. However, due to the large increase in coal prices and pressure on profits, coking enterprises have limited room to increase production, and some have slightly reduced production, affecting the release of raw material coal demand. It is expected that coking coal prices will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: Coking enterprises are facing profit pressure and are restricted by environmental protection policies, so their short - term production is on a downward trend. Downstream steel mills have a relatively high daily average pig iron production and still have some restocking needs. Some steel mills affected by environmental protection restrictions will soon lift the restrictions, and the subsequent procurement demand of steel mills is expected to pick up. Coupled with the strong support of coking coal prices at the raw material end, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The current supply in the producing areas has not increased significantly, and coal mines are strongly willing to hold prices. Coking and steel enterprises have low raw material inventories and still have restocking needs. The third round of coke price increases has started, driving up the quotes of many coal types. Online auctions have performed well with a high transaction rate. Considering the continuous tight supply of coal mines and the active transportation by downstream users, the overall market supply is still tight, and coal enterprises are still bullish on the future market [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1,390, and the basis is 104. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 819.3 tons. The total sample inventory is 1,895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net long, but the long position has decreased [3]. - **Positive Factors**: Pig iron production has increased, and it is difficult for supply to increase [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down their procurement of raw material coal, and steel prices are weak [5]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After two consecutive rounds of coke price increases, the loss situation of coking enterprises has improved. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the production increase space of coking enterprises is restricted, and the coking enterprise production level remains low, with the coke supply continuing to be tight [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1,710, and the basis is - 67. The spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 tons, port inventory is 195.1 tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 42.5 tons. The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Positive Factors**: Pig iron production has increased, and the blast furnace operating rate has increased simultaneously [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margin of steel mills has been squeezed, and part of the restocking demand has been overdrawn [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week. Coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week. Coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has not fully recovered as coal mines in production areas are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts. The market is in a state where prices are fluctuating, with some over - inflated coal prices dropping. The overall haulage is fair, and coal mines have relatively low inventory pressure. With high - level iron ore production providing strong support for raw material demand, but considering the game between steel and coke after the sixth round of coke price increases and cautious purchasing by steel and coking enterprises for high - priced coal, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to be on the strong side [2]. - **For Coke**: The cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased as raw coal prices have declined, but the overall capacity release remains limited. Due to the military parade, Shandong coking plants have received oral notices for environmental production restrictions of 30 - 50%, further constraining coke supply. With stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price of coke is expected to be stable and on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply has not fully recovered, prices are fluctuating, and the overall haulage is good with low inventory pressure at coal mines; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1200, basis is - 113, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With high - level iron ore production, raw material demand is strongly supported. However, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there is a game between steel and coke, and purchasing of high - priced coal is cautious. Short - term price is expected to be strong [2]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Cost pressure has eased, but capacity release is limited. Shandong coking plants are facing production restrictions, further constraining supply; bullish [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1630, basis is - 182, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With tightening supply and stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price is expected to be stable and strong [5]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by steel and coking enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and rising blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Squeezed profit margins in steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [7]. **Inventory Data** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].