大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-3） 焦煤： 6、预期：下游焦钢企业库存偏低，整体需求尚可，且当前铁水产量仍处相对高位，钢企减产动力不足， 焦煤刚需稳定。但当前煤价涨幅较大，利润承压下，目前焦企提产空间有限，部分小幅限产，影响原料 煤需求力度释放有限，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：目前产地供应尚未有明显提升，煤矿挺价意愿较强。焦钢企业原料库存处较低水平，补库 需求仍存，且焦炭第三轮提涨开启，带动多煤种报价继续上调，线上竞拍整体成交表现良好，成交率较 高。考虑煤矿供应紧张持续，下游用户拉运积极，市场整体供应量仍偏紧，煤企对后市仍有看涨预期； 偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1390，基差104；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781 ...

Market Analysis - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile and differentiated trend, with the ChiNext index showing strong performance, rising 1.58% to 3235.76 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.01% to 3853.30 points [3][5] - The market's trading volume remains active, with a total turnover of 2.39 trillion yuan, indicating sustained trading sentiment despite the upcoming holidays [3][5] - The technology sector is expected to remain a core focus for the market, with structural opportunities to be seized during the current policy vacuum [3][5] Stock Market Insights - The market is characterized by structural differentiation, with 1,474 stocks rising and 3,875 falling, highlighting the strength of the technology growth sector [5] - Contemporary market dynamics show that Ningde Times has surpassed Kweichow Moutai in market capitalization, closing at 1,806.6 billion yuan, while Kweichow Moutai stands at 1,802 billion yuan [5] - The technology sector, including server, semiconductor, and copper industries, is leading the market, while cyclical sectors like home appliances and coal are underperforming [5] Bond Market Overview - The bond market is maintaining a weak trend, with significant differentiation among various maturity contracts [6][11] - The 30-year bond contract saw a slight increase of 0.11% after hitting a new low, while shorter-term contracts experienced declines [11] - The market is currently facing short-term pressures, with no interest rate cuts expected in the near term, leading to a cautious market sentiment [11] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market is witnessing a strong performance in industrial products, particularly copper, which surged by 3.40% to reach a new high [7][11] - The rise in copper prices is attributed to supply disruptions caused by a landslide at the Grasberg mine, leading to concerns over supply shortages [11] - Precious metals are experiencing a strong upward trend due to expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties [10][11] Investment Strategy Insights - The report suggests a shift in market style from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation," with strong performance expected from specific segments within the technology sector and dividend stocks [12] - In the long term, the report remains optimistic about the A-share market, driven by global liquidity from the Fed's interest rate cuts and domestic economic recovery [12] - The report highlights the potential for long-term investments in precious and non-ferrous metals due to easing global liquidity [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a high-level oscillation phase, waiting for a direction decision. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. - The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season, and it is recommended to refer to the price range. For other non-ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to their respective fundamentals [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions [2]. - For special commodities, trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - In the new energy sector, it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is expected to enter high-level oscillation. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. It is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. Commodity Sector - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, it is recommended to go long at low prices in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to a sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, coking coal futures are expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Coke is also recommended to go long at low prices as the coking profit continues to repair [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season. Different trading strategies are given for other non-ferrous metals according to their fundamentals [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - **New Energy**: It is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 21, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1147.0, down 1.50%. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On August 21, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1664.0, down 0.95%. In the spot market, the seventh round of price increase has started. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1147.00 yuan/ton, down 15.50 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1664.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 899361.00 lots, up 450.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 47951.00 lots, down 1572.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 112662.00 lots, down 1543.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5111.00 lots, up 165.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 59.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 936.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; J main - contract basis was 56.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [2]. - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the daily output of clean coal was 25.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 294.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has not fully recovered as coal mines in production areas are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts. The market is in a state where prices are fluctuating, with some over - inflated coal prices dropping. The overall haulage is fair, and coal mines have relatively low inventory pressure. With high - level iron ore production providing strong support for raw material demand, but considering the game between steel and coke after the sixth round of coke price increases and cautious purchasing by steel and coking enterprises for high - priced coal, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to be on the strong side [2]. - **For Coke**: The cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased as raw coal prices have declined, but the overall capacity release remains limited. Due to the military parade, Shandong coking plants have received oral notices for environmental production restrictions of 30 - 50%, further constraining coke supply. With stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price of coke is expected to be stable and on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply has not fully recovered, prices are fluctuating, and the overall haulage is good with low inventory pressure at coal mines; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1200, basis is - 113, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With high - level iron ore production, raw material demand is strongly supported. However, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there is a game between steel and coke, and purchasing of high - priced coal is cautious. Short - term price is expected to be strong [2]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Cost pressure has eased, but capacity release is limited. Shandong coking plants are facing production restrictions, further constraining supply; bullish [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1630, basis is - 182, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With tightening supply and stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price is expected to be stable and strong [5]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by steel and coking enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and rising blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Squeezed profit margins in steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [7]. **Inventory Data** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal remains loose, with prices continuing to decline. The downstream procurement pace has slowed down due to the second round of coke price cuts, and new orders for mines have decreased. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak. There are factors like rising pig iron production and limited supply growth as positives, while slow procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negatives [2][5]. - **For Coke**: As the price of raw coal continues to fall, the cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased, and the production level remains high. However, the poor trading in the finished product market and the decline in steel prices have led to reduced demand from steel mills, and there is still an intention to lower prices. It is expected that coke will remain weakly stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn restocking demand are negatives [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Coking Coal**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and brands at ports in Hebei and Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged, and some varieties being out of stock [11]. - **Coke**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke showed a general downward trend, with some prices decreasing by 20 yuan, while a few showed different changes [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory was 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory was 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory was 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory was 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory was 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory was 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [28]. Production - related Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [39]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The report expects the short - term coking coal price to be weakly stable. Although the demand for raw materials from downstream enterprises remains due to high hot metal production, the current steel - coking game is obvious. Enterprises mainly consume inventory, purchase on a just - in - time basis, and are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - **焦炭**: The report anticipates that the short - term coke price will remain stable. Coke production is increasing steadily, and the pre - holiday inventory demand of downstream steel mills has been released, but the macro - expectation is average, and the steel market fluctuates, so the market sentiment is still cautious [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **焦煤**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, and the total sample inventory has decreased, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is negative. Overall, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2]. - **焦炭**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the total sample inventory has increased, which is negative. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The price is expected to remain stable [5]. Factors Affecting Prices - **焦煤**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Negative factors are the slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **焦炭**: Positive factors are the increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate. Negative factors are the squeezed profit margins of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Prices - **焦煤**: On April 28, 2025, the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia are provided, with most prices showing no change [8]. - **焦炭**: On April 28, 2025, the port prices of metallurgical coke from different ports and regions are presented, with no price changes [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [26]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].