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高位震荡分化格局延续
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-25 14:34
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 09 月 25 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号:S0120524010005 邮箱:chengqiang@tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号:S0120523070003 邮箱:gaojq@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 高位震荡分化格局延续 资料来源:Wind,德邦研究所 1)股票市场:高位震荡,宁德时代市值超越贵州茅台 高位震荡,创业板领涨。今日 A 股市场呈现结构性分化特征,1474 家上涨、3875 家下跌。创业板指延续强势表现,全天上涨 1.58%至 3235.76 点,再创阶段新高; 上证指数微跌 0.01%,收于 3853.30 点。市场成交保持活跃,全天成交额 2.39 万 亿,较前一交易日小幅放量。 宁德时代市值超越茅台。行业层面,科技成长板块走强,服务器、半导体硅片、铜 产业、核聚变等板块领涨,周期类板块表现低迷,家电、煤炭、银行等板块跌幅居 前,市场呈现"科技权重搭台、题材唱戏"的格局。个股层面, ...
广发期货日评-20250827
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:31
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a high-level oscillation phase, waiting for a direction decision. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. - The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season, and it is recommended to refer to the price range. For other non-ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to their respective fundamentals [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions [2]. - For special commodities, trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - In the new energy sector, it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is expected to enter high-level oscillation. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. It is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. Commodity Sector - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, it is recommended to go long at low prices in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to a sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, coking coal futures are expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Coke is also recommended to go long at low prices as the coking profit continues to repair [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season. Different trading strategies are given for other non-ferrous metals according to their fundamentals [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - **New Energy**: It is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2].
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 08:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 21, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1147.0, down 1.50%. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. - On August 21, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1664.0, down 0.95%. In the spot market, the seventh round of price increase has started. The market is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main - contract closing price was 1147.00 yuan/ton, down 15.50 yuan; J main - contract closing price was 1664.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 899361.00 lots, up 450.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 47951.00 lots, down 1572.00 lots [2]. - Net holding volume of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 112662.00 lots, down 1543.00 lots; net holding volume of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5111.00 lots, up 165.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 117.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread was 59.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 936.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main - contract basis was 153.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan; J main - contract basis was 56.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the monthly raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.20 million tons, up 3.30 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in full - sample was 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan; the monthly output of coke was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 18, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the 19th local time that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues and expected to meet again before November [2]. - The minutes of the Fed's July meeting showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [2]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 36.1%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the daily output of clean coal was 25.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the inventory of clean coal was 294.8 million tons, down 2.2 million tons [2].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-8-13)-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has not fully recovered as coal mines in production areas are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts. The market is in a state where prices are fluctuating, with some over - inflated coal prices dropping. The overall haulage is fair, and coal mines have relatively low inventory pressure. With high - level iron ore production providing strong support for raw material demand, but considering the game between steel and coke after the sixth round of coke price increases and cautious purchasing by steel and coking enterprises for high - priced coal, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to be on the strong side [2]. - **For Coke**: The cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased as raw coal prices have declined, but the overall capacity release remains limited. Due to the military parade, Shandong coking plants have received oral notices for environmental production restrictions of 30 - 50%, further constraining coke supply. With stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price of coke is expected to be stable and on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply has not fully recovered, prices are fluctuating, and the overall haulage is good with low inventory pressure at coal mines; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1200, basis is - 113, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With high - level iron ore production, raw material demand is strongly supported. However, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there is a game between steel and coke, and purchasing of high - priced coal is cautious. Short - term price is expected to be strong [2]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Cost pressure has eased, but capacity release is limited. Shandong coking plants are facing production restrictions, further constraining supply; bullish [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1630, basis is - 182, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With tightening supply and stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price is expected to be stable and strong [5]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by steel and coking enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and rising blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Squeezed profit margins in steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [7]. **Inventory Data** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-5-28)-20250528
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal remains loose, with prices continuing to decline. The downstream procurement pace has slowed down due to the second round of coke price cuts, and new orders for mines have decreased. The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak. There are factors like rising pig iron production and limited supply growth as positives, while slow procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices are negatives [2][5]. - **For Coke**: As the price of raw coal continues to fall, the cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased, and the production level remains high. However, the poor trading in the finished product market and the decline in steel prices have led to reduced demand from steel mills, and there is still an intention to lower prices. It is expected that coke will remain weakly stable in the short term. Positive factors include rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate, while squeezed profit margins of steel mills and over - drawn restocking demand are negatives [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Coking Coal**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of various types of coking coal from different countries and brands at ports in Hebei and Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged, and some varieties being out of stock [11]. - **Coke**: On May 27 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke showed a general downward trend, with some prices decreasing by 20 yuan, while a few showed different changes [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory was 324.8 tons, a decrease of 12.6 tons from last week; coke port inventory was 243.6 tons, a decrease of 2.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory was 819.8 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons from last week; coke inventory was 68.8 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory was 782.5 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons from last week; coke inventory was 666.4 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week [28]. Production - related Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [39]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [43].
焦煤焦炭早报(2025-4-29)-20250429
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The report expects the short - term coking coal price to be weakly stable. Although the demand for raw materials from downstream enterprises remains due to high hot metal production, the current steel - coking game is obvious. Enterprises mainly consume inventory, purchase on a just - in - time basis, and are cautious about high - priced coal [2]. - **焦炭**: The report anticipates that the short - term coke price will remain stable. Coke production is increasing steadily, and the pre - holiday inventory demand of downstream steel mills has been released, but the macro - expectation is average, and the steel market fluctuates, so the market sentiment is still cautious [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **焦煤**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, and the total sample inventory has decreased, which is positive. However, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions, which is negative. Overall, the price is expected to be weakly stable [2]. - **焦炭**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is at a discount to the futures, and the total sample inventory has increased, which is negative. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. The price is expected to remain stable [5]. Factors Affecting Prices - **焦煤**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth. Negative factors are the slowdown in raw coal procurement by coke - steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **焦炭**: Positive factors are the increase in hot metal production and blast furnace operating rate. Negative factors are the squeezed profit margins of steel mills and the partial overdraft of restocking demand [7]. Prices - **焦煤**: On April 28, 2025, the port spot prices of various types of coking coal from Russia, the United States, and Australia are provided, with most prices showing no change [8]. - **焦炭**: On April 28, 2025, the port prices of metallurgical coke from different ports and regions are presented, with no price changes [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 324.8 million tons, a decrease of 12.6 million tons from last week. Coke port inventory is 243.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.8 million tons, a decrease of 10.1 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 68.8 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 782.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.7 million tons from last week. Coke inventory is 666.4 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last week [26]. Other Indicators - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 75.3%, an increase of 1.9% from last week [37]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is - 9 yuan, an increase of 7 yuan from last week [41].