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商品日报(6月4日):“绝代双焦”再现 商品反弹还是反转?
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 11:31
Group 1 - Domestic commodities experienced a strong rebound on June 4, with coking coal rising over 7% and coke over 5%, leading to a broad market recovery [1][2] - The rebound was primarily driven by coking coal, which had seen significant price drops recently, prompting profit-taking among short sellers [2][3] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1350.34 points, up 0.51% from the previous trading day, while the Commodity Futures Index rose to 1869.74 points, also reflecting a 0.51% increase [1][6] Group 2 - Supply-side factors include temporary production halts in Shanxi coal mines and safety incidents, leading to expectations of tighter coking coal supply, although overall production remains high [3] - There are rumors regarding potential tax increases on Mongolian coal resources, but no official announcements have been made, keeping supply conditions relatively loose [3] - On the demand side, iron and steel production is expected to decline, with coking enterprises facing reduced profits and accumulating inventory, indicating a cautious outlook for future demand [3] Group 3 - The shipping industry is experiencing upward pressure on freight rates due to strong demand on the US routes, with European shipping contracts also seeing increases [4] - Despite the positive sentiment, the current supply-demand structure does not support significant price jumps, suggesting a more gradual adjustment in freight rates [4] Group 4 - The oilseed market is showing weakness, with canola oil prices dropping over 2% due to improved supply expectations following trade negotiations between Canada and China [5][7] - The increase in domestic canola planting areas and expected imports are contributing to a more favorable supply outlook, which may keep prices under pressure in the short term [5][7] - Other commodities, such as caustic soda and paper pulp, are also facing downward pressure due to oversupply and seasonal demand factors [7]