Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of anti-involution, PTA fluctuates strongly. The oil price fluctuates, and the market trades around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. In November, there are many maintenance plans for PTA, so the pressure of inventory accumulation is not great. However, after December, as demand weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation will gradually emerge. In the long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, but the spot supply in the market is relatively abundant, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The polyester start-up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month-on-month). The domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in November. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the raw material price fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - It includes the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - It involves the toluene US-Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - It includes the start-up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX start-up rates in China and Asia [26][29][30] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the sales volume of filament and short fiber, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, inventory days of filament factories, and the start-up rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - It covers the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, load of recycled cotton-type staple fiber, spread between original and recycled fibers, start-up rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn, and their production profits and processing fees [66][67][75] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the load of polyester bottle chips, bottle chip inventory days of bottle chip factories, spot processing fee of bottle chips, export processing fee of bottle chips, export profit of bottle chips, spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, and the month-on-month spreads of bottle chips [83][85][95]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 3 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铝增仓上行 1. 产业动态 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价上先抑后扬，午后国内宏观氛围回暖，有色板块整体上 行。产业层面，周一电解铜小幅累库。短期沪铜主力期价连续两日在 10 日均线触底回升，可持续关注该位置技术支撑。 沪铝 今日铝价增仓上行明显，尤其是午后，主力期价尾盘站上 2.06 万 关口。铝受国内宏观影响相对较大，近期中美贸易缓和叠加国内反内 卷预期再度上升，利好铝价。产业层面，周一电解铝小幅累库。技术 上，关注 2024 ...

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 25th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,614 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.79%. The settlement price was 4,614 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 1,628 lots. Although the anti-involution expectation still exists, the crude oil market declined during the session, weakening the cost support. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly. Pay attention to the news from the PTA meeting this week [6]. Industry News - OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production may exceed expectations again. The boost from last week's sanctions on a certain country in Europe by the US and Europe is fading. Traders doubt the implementation effect of the sanctions, and the optimistic sentiment surrounding the Sino-US trade negotiations has little impact on oil prices. International oil prices rose in the early session and then closed lower for two consecutive days. On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil December 2025 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil December 2025 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [7]. - The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $813 - $815 per ton, down $7 per ton. The price of PX in the South Korean market was estimated at $793 - $795 per ton, down $7 per ton. There were two transactions reported during the day, with an arbitrary December shipment traded at $816 per ton and an arbitrary January shipment traded at $810 per ton [7]. - The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,537 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was referenced to the futures 2601 at a discount of 77 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA price summaries, basis differences, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

变化 0 0 0 0 0 供应层面看，钢厂预计小幅复产。需求层面，刚需为主。成本方面，镍铁价格维持、铬铁小幅上涨。库存方面，锡佛两 地去库，仓单小幅去化。基本面整体维持偏弱，短期宏观面跟随反内卷预期，印尼游行事件短期平息，政策端有一定挺 价动机。 有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/10/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/09/24 40 1273 105814 27419 -693.47 68.15 57.0 59.0 -31.37 144775 11775 2025/09/25 40 2382 105814 27662 -745.90 -123.95 53.0 58.0 -31.55 144425 11400 2025/09/26 -5 2337 98779 26557 -652.74 127.20 53.0 58.0 -38.91 144400 10325 2025/09/29 -15 2077 98779 25603 -8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with a drop of 2.24% observed, and various institutions providing differing outlooks on the future market trends of coking coal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1192.0 yuan before recovering slightly to 1202.0 yuan [1]. - The decline in futures is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - **Ruida Futures**: Anticipates a bullish trend for coking coal, citing a recovery in supply as production resumes and a neutral inventory situation [3]. - **Zhonghui Futures**: Notes a supportive policy environment, with a slight recovery in coking coal production and stable import levels, leading to a strong market outlook [4]. - **Guoxin Futures**: Highlights a high level of coal supply and stable demand from downstream industries, suggesting a high-level fluctuation in the market [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Bullish [1][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Bullish [1][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Bullish [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti-involution narrative continues to boost market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up steel prices. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are relatively stable, while the downstream demand for rebar has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The iron ore market has a strong fundamental situation, with rising iron production and decreasing arrivals of foreign ores. The coking coal market is also strong, with increasing production and high imports. The coke market follows the trend of coking coal. The ferromanganese market is supported by rigid demand from iron production, and the ferrosilicon market follows the coal price trend, but the high level of warehouse receipts restricts price increases [1][4][8]. 3. Summaries by Variety Steel - **Rebar**: The anti-involution narrative boosts market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up prices. Iron production has returned to pre-parade levels, but rebar production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has increased. Currently in the demand verification stage, downstream demand has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. Policy expectations drive the market to be strong [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the anti-involution expectation boosts market confidence, leading to a strong market [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron production has recovered rapidly. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production cuts. Port inventory has increased, and steel mills have slightly replenished their stocks. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have decreased significantly, and the fundamental situation is strong. The ore price is oscillating upwards [1][8][9]. Coke - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, and coking coal leads the black series to rise. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and coking profits have decreased, but coke production is relatively stable. Iron production has increased significantly, and the demand for raw materials is high. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows the trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, strengthening market confidence. Coking coal production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased, and there is no significant short-term supply-demand contradiction. The market is strong under a favorable policy environment [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: In the context of production resumption in the production areas, supply pressure continues to increase. The recovery of iron production provides rigid support for the demand for ferromanganese. Attention should be paid to the new round of replenishment by steel mills. The supply-demand contradiction has yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the price up [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. Warehouse receipts are on a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still high, restricting price increases. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the market to follow the coal price trend [1][20][21].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The expectation of anti - involution in the black sector has resurfaced, and the negative feedback logic has encountered obstacles. The black commodity prices rebounded strongly last Friday, but whether anti - involution policies in the steel industry will be implemented remains to be observed [3]. - For steel, it is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September. It is advisable to buy on dips as the cost - performance of short - selling is low under low valuation. For coal and coke, it is recommended to conduct range trading or short - term trading and focus on the resumption of coking coal production. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct range trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first fell and then rose last week, with raw materials stronger than finished products [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The trends are differentiated, and the volatility of the black sector is relatively small. 03 Spot Prices - The prices of rebar and scrap steel fell, while the price of iron ore rose [9][10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low [11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel inventories continued to accumulate during the off - season and have exceeded last year's levels [3][13]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, while pig iron production has dropped sharply [22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has declined significantly, and inventories have been depleted again [25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has declined slightly, and coke enterprise inventories are relatively low [27]. 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mills' on - paper profits continue to decline [29]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US employment data was lower than expected, and traders bet that the Fed would further cut interest rates. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August expanded for the first time since mid - 2022 [35].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the industrial sector's performance, particularly focusing on the midstream raw materials industry, fuel processing, and black processing sectors, which benefited from rising prices of coal and steel products [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Improvement in July**: Industrial enterprises saw a marginal improvement in profit growth in July, primarily driven by the midstream raw materials sector, while revenue growth showed a slight decline [3][4]. - **Downstream Consumer Goods Sector**: The downstream consumer goods sector faced challenges due to the automotive manufacturing industry's price wars and a lull in government subsidies, leading to a noticeable drop in revenue and profit growth [5][10]. - **Inventory Trends**: There was a significant acceleration in inventory reduction in July, indicating a conservative market demand outlook. Different industries exhibited varying inventory cycles, with upstream resource sectors starting to actively reduce inventory from June [7][8]. - **Midstream Raw Materials Performance**: The midstream raw materials sector showed notable profit growth, particularly in fuel processing and black processing industries, benefiting from price increases in coal and steel products [4][11]. - **Future Outlook for Downstream Consumer Goods**: Attention is needed on the rollout of government subsidies and the potential shift from goods consumption to service consumption, which may impact corporate profitability [9][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Weak Demand Impact**: The weak demand environment has resulted in longer accounts receivable collection periods and higher inventory turnover days, constraining business operations [12]. - **Potential Risks**: The call highlighted potential risks from external factors such as U.S. tariffs and the impact of changing consumer behavior on domestic demand, which could disrupt industrial profit trends [2][13]. - **Sector-Specific Observations**: The call noted that while the midstream raw materials sector transitioned to active inventory reduction, the upstream sector had been in a passive accumulation phase until June [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the industrial sector's current state and future outlook.

Supply and Demand - Industrial production shows marginal weakening, with construction activity at seasonal lows, particularly in asphalt and cement operations[2] - Some chemical chains and automotive steel tire production rates have declined, with PX operating rates returning to historical midpoints[2] - Construction demand remains weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rod, and building materials below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold showing a generally strong trend[3] - Domestic industrial products, excluding some building materials, are experiencing a rebound in prices, with the South China comprehensive index showing an upward trend[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 16% week-on-week increase in transaction area, but still down 38% and 17% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with prices declining and transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing year-on-year decreases of 8% and 2% respectively[4] Exports - July exports are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 2.8%, and container shipping data indicating a potential increase of around 7%[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of August 1[70] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 15,675 billion yuan through reverse repos in the same period[70] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[75]