焦煤期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 9月18日盘中，焦煤期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1192.0元。截止发稿，焦煤主力合约 报1202.0元，跌幅2.24%。 中辉期货：政策偏暖氛围下焦煤偏强运行 能源局核查煤炭超产问题开始落地，部分煤矿停产整改。反内卷预期再次升温，市场信心得以加强。焦 煤产量环比回升，幅度一般。蒙煤通关量处于较高水平，进口量高位运行。铁水产量亦大幅回升，原料 需求有保证。总库存有所下降，短期供需矛盾不大，政策偏暖氛围下偏强运行。 国信期货：焦煤盘面高位震荡运行 政策扰动结束，上周国内煤矿供应恢复，高频数据显示开工率回升，煤炭产量环比增加。蒙煤通关量在 年内高位水平，进口相对充分。需求端，下游焦化企业以及钢厂利润尚可，保持开工动能，稳步复产， 开工率低位反弹。供需双增，叠加宏观情绪提振，盘面高位震荡运行，建议短线操作。 机构 核心观点 瑞达期货（002961） 焦煤震荡偏多运行对待 中辉期货 政策偏暖氛围下焦煤偏强运行 国信期货 焦煤盘面高位震荡运行 瑞达期货：焦煤震荡偏多运行对待 宏观面，美联储在本周三的议息会议上，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Bullish [1][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Bullish [1][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Bullish [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti-involution narrative continues to boost market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up steel prices. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are relatively stable, while the downstream demand for rebar has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The iron ore market has a strong fundamental situation, with rising iron production and decreasing arrivals of foreign ores. The coking coal market is also strong, with increasing production and high imports. The coke market follows the trend of coking coal. The ferromanganese market is supported by rigid demand from iron production, and the ferrosilicon market follows the coal price trend, but the high level of warehouse receipts restricts price increases [1][4][8]. 3. Summaries by Variety Steel - **Rebar**: The anti-involution narrative boosts market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up prices. Iron production has returned to pre-parade levels, but rebar production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has increased. Currently in the demand verification stage, downstream demand has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. Policy expectations drive the market to be strong [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the anti-involution expectation boosts market confidence, leading to a strong market [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron production has recovered rapidly. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production cuts. Port inventory has increased, and steel mills have slightly replenished their stocks. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have decreased significantly, and the fundamental situation is strong. The ore price is oscillating upwards [1][8][9]. Coke - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, and coking coal leads the black series to rise. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and coking profits have decreased, but coke production is relatively stable. Iron production has increased significantly, and the demand for raw materials is high. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows the trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, strengthening market confidence. Coking coal production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased, and there is no significant short-term supply-demand contradiction. The market is strong under a favorable policy environment [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: In the context of production resumption in the production areas, supply pressure continues to increase. The recovery of iron production provides rigid support for the demand for ferromanganese. Attention should be paid to the new round of replenishment by steel mills. The supply-demand contradiction has yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the price up [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. Warehouse receipts are on a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still high, restricting price increases. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the market to follow the coal price trend [1][20][21].

黑色：反内卷预期再起 负反馈逻辑遇阻 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-09-08 长江期货股份有限公司产业服务总部 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 品种 行情观点 策略 板块综述：上周黑色板块先跌后涨，原料一度大幅下跌，并带动成材价格走低，主要因为钢材需求仍处低位，钢材库存持续累积， 目前库存已经超越去年同期，盘面开始交易钢厂减产去库的负反馈逻辑。然而，上周五反内卷预期再起，黑色商品价格出现较为强势的 反弹，双焦价格更是大幅上涨，收复了前四日的跌幅。不过，钢铁行业是否有反内卷政策落地，尚需观察。 | 钢材 | 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，静态估值偏低；驱动方面，宏观端，反 | 回落做多，RB2601关注 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 内卷预期反复、美联储降息预期升温，产业端，现实供需转弱，不过9月是传统需求旺季，关注 | 【3000-3100】支撑。 | | | 需求恢复进度。预计9月价格先跌后涨，低估值下追空性价比偏低，逢回落做多为主。 | | | 煤焦 | 上周焦煤产量大幅下滑，库存再度 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the industrial sector's performance, particularly focusing on the midstream raw materials industry, fuel processing, and black processing sectors, which benefited from rising prices of coal and steel products [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Profit Improvement in July**: Industrial enterprises saw a marginal improvement in profit growth in July, primarily driven by the midstream raw materials sector, while revenue growth showed a slight decline [3][4]. - **Downstream Consumer Goods Sector**: The downstream consumer goods sector faced challenges due to the automotive manufacturing industry's price wars and a lull in government subsidies, leading to a noticeable drop in revenue and profit growth [5][10]. - **Inventory Trends**: There was a significant acceleration in inventory reduction in July, indicating a conservative market demand outlook. Different industries exhibited varying inventory cycles, with upstream resource sectors starting to actively reduce inventory from June [7][8]. - **Midstream Raw Materials Performance**: The midstream raw materials sector showed notable profit growth, particularly in fuel processing and black processing industries, benefiting from price increases in coal and steel products [4][11]. - **Future Outlook for Downstream Consumer Goods**: Attention is needed on the rollout of government subsidies and the potential shift from goods consumption to service consumption, which may impact corporate profitability [9][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Weak Demand Impact**: The weak demand environment has resulted in longer accounts receivable collection periods and higher inventory turnover days, constraining business operations [12]. - **Potential Risks**: The call highlighted potential risks from external factors such as U.S. tariffs and the impact of changing consumer behavior on domestic demand, which could disrupt industrial profit trends [2][13]. - **Sector-Specific Observations**: The call noted that while the midstream raw materials sector transitioned to active inventory reduction, the upstream sector had been in a passive accumulation phase until June [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the industrial sector's current state and future outlook.

Supply and Demand - Industrial production shows marginal weakening, with construction activity at seasonal lows, particularly in asphalt and cement operations[2] - Some chemical chains and automotive steel tire production rates have declined, with PX operating rates returning to historical midpoints[2] - Construction demand remains weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rod, and building materials below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold showing a generally strong trend[3] - Domestic industrial products, excluding some building materials, are experiencing a rebound in prices, with the South China comprehensive index showing an upward trend[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 16% week-on-week increase in transaction area, but still down 38% and 17% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with prices declining and transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing year-on-year decreases of 8% and 2% respectively[4] Exports - July exports are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 2.8%, and container shipping data indicating a potential increase of around 7%[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of August 1[70] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 15,675 billion yuan through reverse repos in the same period[70] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[75]

Group 1 - Coking coal shows signs of stabilization after a previous day of limit decline [1] - Expectations of anti-involution have cooled down but are not yet over [1] - The fourth round of price increases for coking coal has been rapidly implemented, indicating potential for further price increases in the future [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising price of lithium carbonate, which is approaching the 80,000 yuan mark, driven by frequent disturbances in the resource sector and a strengthening expectation of "anti-involution" [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the price of lithium carbonate is becoming "unstoppable," indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains at a seasonal low, with asphalt and cement dispatch rates at historical lows, and funding availability on construction sites lower than in 2024[13] - Industrial production shows a slight decline in chemical chain operating rates, while automotive steel tire operating rates have increased, indicating overall industrial activity remains at a historical high[23] - Demand in construction is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and building materials below historical levels[31] Price Trends - International commodity prices have seen a rebound in oil and gold, while non-ferrous metal prices have declined[38] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing a strong performance, with the Nanhua Composite Index showing a rebound, particularly in the black series and construction materials like asphalt and cement[40] - Agricultural product prices, including pork, have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks[48] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in major cities have decreased significantly, with a 51% drop in average transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and a year-on-year decline of 35% compared to 2023[61] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of -18%, -1%, and +8% respectively[65] Export Performance - Port container throughput increased by 3.9% year-on-year before July 20, with export growth projected at approximately +1.5%[70] - The Shanghai container ship loading index suggests a potential export growth of around +4%[70] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 and DR007 both at 1.51% as of July 18[83] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 657 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[86]