投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空交织，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1741 元/吨，日内录得 0.26%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.93 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +775 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1520 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.18%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1480 元/ 吨，周环比持平。当前，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期 和反内卷预期驱动焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：12 月 23 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1125.5 点，日内上涨 1.90%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.92 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+8361 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1140.0 元/吨，周环比持平， 折合期货仓单成本约 1116 元/吨。目前，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随 着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主 力合约低位反弹， ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：周初仍有上攻动力 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：降息预期稍有升温，但潜在利空尚存 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力体现 粕类持续回落 6 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 预计短期维持底部震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 8 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | 生猪：供应压力体现 现货逐步回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面偏弱震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 11 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 13 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：降息阻碍减少 金稳银强延续 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：交投热情过度 ...

Report General Information - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [5] - Report Type: Daily Report on Coal and Coke in the Ferrous Metals Industry [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: The latest data shows that both supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, with little change in the fundamentals. As of the week ending November 21, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 1088,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2800 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2,362,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 6000 tons, and the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%, indicating that steel mills are in a large - scale loss situation. Overall, the strong supply expectation of coking coal has cooled down, dragging down the cost support of coke. The main futures contract maintains a weak and volatile operation. Continuous attention should be paid to the supply of coking coal [6][36]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending November 21, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 758,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 38,000 tons. The combined daily average coke output of downstream coking plants and steel mills was 1088,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2800 tons. Although the profits of independent coking plants have improved significantly this week, the port market has over - anticipated price cuts in advance. There are doubts about the extent and sustainability of the improvement in downstream demand, and the positive factors on the demand side of coking coal are still insufficient. Overall, the weakening of the anti - involution expectation and the accelerated customs clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the supply - side support of coking coal. However, considering that the output of coal mines may decline after achieving production targets at the end of the year and the Politburo meeting will be held in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [6][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry News - **Electricity Consumption**: In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. The electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries and urban and rural residents all increased year - on - year, with the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents having relatively high growth rates [8]. - **Port Cargo Volume**: As of November 16, the cumulative import and export freight volume of Ganqimao Port was 35.8326 million tons, including 33.8984 million tons of imported coal. The port has completed 80% of its annual cargo volume target, with a remaining gap of about 8.7 million tons for coal. The three major ports will be closed on November 26 for the Mongolian Republic's National Day and resume customs clearance on November 27. There is a possibility of an increase in the daily customs clearance vehicle number at Ganqimao Port next week. The self - pick - up price of the mainstream Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped by 170 yuan/ton from the highest price in November [9]. 2. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change |同期 Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Coke - Rizhao Port Standard First - Class FOB** | 1670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | **Coke - Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Ex - warehouse** | 1490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 10.78% | | **Coking Coal - Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal** | 1330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | **Coking Coal - Jingtang Port Australian Coal** | 1590 yuan/ton | - 1.24% | - 4.22% | +6.71% | - 6.47% | | **Coking Coal - Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal** | 1790 yuan/ton | - 2.19% | +2.87% | +16.99% | +5.29% | [10] 3. Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Coke** | - | 1614.5 | - 1.31 | 1647.5 | 1614.5 | 16023 | - 3327 | 36556 | 80 | | **Coking Coal** | - | 1103.0 | - 1.82 | 1124.0 | 1096.0 | 620493 | - 94108 | 497103 | - 39806 | [15] 4. Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, ports and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2020 - 2025 [16][18][21]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025 [22][25][27][33]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability rate), Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production (coal washing plant clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [29][31][34][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes the weakening supply and demand of coke, the cooling of the strong coking coal supply expectation, and the insufficient positive factors on the coking coal demand side. The downward trend sustainability of coking coal futures needs further observation [36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of anti-involution, PTA fluctuates strongly. The oil price fluctuates, and the market trades around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. In November, there are many maintenance plans for PTA, so the pressure of inventory accumulation is not great. However, after December, as demand weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation will gradually emerge. In the long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, but the spot supply in the market is relatively abundant, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited. The polyester start-up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month-on-month). The domestic sales orders have improved significantly since late October. The inventory of polyester factories is not high, and the polyester load is expected to remain around 91% in November. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the raw material price fluctuations [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - It includes the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] III. International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - It involves the toluene US-Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start-up - It includes the start-up rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX start-up rates in China and Asia [26][29][30] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [33][36][37] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes the sales volume of filament and short fiber, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, inventory days of filament factories, and the start-up rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [44][46][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - It covers the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, load of recycled cotton-type staple fiber, spread between original and recycled fibers, start-up rates of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn, and their production profits and processing fees [66][67][75] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes the load of polyester bottle chips, bottle chip inventory days of bottle chip factories, spot processing fee of bottle chips, export processing fee of bottle chips, export profit of bottle chips, spread between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A-grade white bottle chips, and the month-on-month spreads of bottle chips [83][85][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose today. In the afternoon, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the non - ferrous sector as a whole went up. On the industrial level, electrolytic copper slightly increased in inventory on Monday. The short - term main contract price of Shanghai copper has rebounded from the 10 - day moving average for two consecutive days. Continuously monitor the technical support at this position [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices significantly increased with rising positions today, especially in the afternoon. The main contract price closed above the 20,600 yuan mark at the end of the session. Aluminum is relatively more affected by the domestic macro situation. Recently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the increasing expectation of anti - involution in China are beneficial to aluminum prices. On the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum slightly increased in inventory on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in November 2024 [5]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around 121,000 yuan today. The upward movement of the non - ferrous sector in the afternoon had little impact on nickel. The weakness on the industrial level makes funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in late October [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, the supply of recycled copper raw materials increased, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, leading to an increase in the output of scrap - produced anode copper smelting enterprises. The average processing fee of anode plates increased by 350 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 614,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [9]. - **Nickel**: On November 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum average price and premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum bar inventory, etc [23][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [35][37][38].

Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 25th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,614 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.79%. The settlement price was 4,614 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 1,628 lots. Although the anti-involution expectation still exists, the crude oil market declined during the session, weakening the cost support. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly. Pay attention to the news from the PTA meeting this week [6]. Industry News - OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production may exceed expectations again. The boost from last week's sanctions on a certain country in Europe by the US and Europe is fading. Traders doubt the implementation effect of the sanctions, and the optimistic sentiment surrounding the Sino-US trade negotiations has little impact on oil prices. International oil prices rose in the early session and then closed lower for two consecutive days. On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil December 2025 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil December 2025 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [7]. - The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $813 - $815 per ton, down $7 per ton. The price of PX in the South Korean market was estimated at $793 - $795 per ton, down $7 per ton. There were two transactions reported during the day, with an arbitrary December shipment traded at $816 per ton and an arbitrary January shipment traded at $810 per ton [7]. - The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,537 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was referenced to the futures 2601 at a discount of 77 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [7]. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA price summaries, basis differences, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Grasberg's unexpected copper production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months. With no significant increase in adjusted copper mine supply this year and no increase next year without the resumption of the Panama mine, the contradiction at the mine end is further intensified. The market sentiment and capital allocation for copper are expected to turn around, and the medium - term allocation value of copper is still favored [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable. Pay attention to demand, hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern, and pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated this week. The short - term unilateral trend is weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for internal - external arbitrage, partial profit - taking can be considered for internal - external positive arbitrage [2]. - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel are generally weak. In the short term, the macro - aspect follows the anti - involution expectation, and the policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [3][4]. - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend next week, in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 [7]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, short lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton, and hold near the cost line in the medium - long term [10]. - The short - and medium - term supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a balanced state, and the long - term price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [11]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates. The price elasticity is high after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbance occurs [11]. Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary's泥石流 accident postponed Grasberg's resumption of production, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to a reduction of about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold). The adjusted copper mine supply has no significant increase this year and next year without the resumption of the Panama mine [1]. - Fund long positions are gradually increasing, but macro and bulk CTA funds are still focused on precious metals. The gold - copper ratio is at a low historical quantile. With the structural gap in copper fundamentals emerging, the market sentiment and capital allocation for copper are expected to improve [1]. - Copper currently benefits from the global fiscal and monetary double - loose policy, and there is still room for subsequent interest rate cuts. It is advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500, or selling put options below 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increase from January to August. Downstream开工 has improved, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized. Pay attention to whether overseas demand stabilizes after the decline [1]. - In September, inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected to increase seasonally in October. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand [1]. Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased further. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc mines will be marginally tighter, while overseas mine production increased more than expected in the second quarter. In August, China imported 460,000 tons of zinc ore, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43% [2]. - In October, smelting production recovered slightly month - on - month. When the domestic zinc mine processing fee declines, attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2]. - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, with limited growth but certain resilience; overseas, European demand is average, and some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2]. - Domestic social inventory fluctuates, and overseas LME inventory decreases. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge, and the export window is approaching. Some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel and stainless steel, supply is expected to see a slight resumption of production by steel mills. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Nickel - iron prices remain stable, and chromium - iron prices for stainless steel increase slightly [3][4]. - Nickel inventories in Xifu area increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories in Xifu area decreased. Warehouse receipts for both decreased slightly [3][4]. Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year - on - year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of waste batteries. With low profits, recycled lead maintains low - level production. From April to August, the operation of concentrate mines increased, but due to smelting profits, supply fell short of demand, and TC quotes declined in a chaotic manner [7]. - On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high. During the National Day holiday, battery production increased, and demand improved slightly. The refined - scrap price difference is - 75, and the long - term supply of recycled lead in Henan is tight. LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons [7]. - In August, primary lead supply remained flat, and recycled lead production decreased. In September, both production cuts and resumptions occurred in recycled lead, and primary lead supply is expected to remain flat. Demand has improved slightly, but inventory is at a high level, and the overall inventory reduction needs to be verified [7]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the processing fee for tin mines is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Yunnan Tin had maintenance in early September for about 45 days. Overseas, imports from Wa State were still low in August but gradually recovered from late September to October, and it is expected to maintain above 600 metal tons. Indonesia's tin export is expected to resume in mid - to late September [10]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, mainly supported by rigid demand. When prices declined rapidly this week, downstream replenishment willingness was strong, and combined with National Day holiday replenishment, inventory reduction was significant. Overseas, Indonesia is gradually recovering, and LME inventory has rebounded from a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - This week, leading enterprises in Xinjiang continued to resume production, with the latest number of operating furnaces reaching 82, an increase of 5 from last week. Currently, the operation in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, with a monthly output close to 120,000 tons. Some factories in the southwest may gradually cut production in the future [11]. - In September, the supply - demand was in a balanced state, and the core of the balance change is the rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng's resumption of production. In the short term, affected by the resumption rhythm of the southwest and Hesheng, the supply - demand will remain balanced in September and October. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [11]. Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated. On the raw material side, overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and traders are reluctant to sell, but salt factories have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore [11]. - On the lithium salt side, the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm was strong first and then weak this week and is now approaching the end. The spot basis is stable and weak, with some discounts expanding by 100 - 200 yuan. The transaction of electric - grade lithium carbonate in the market is still mainly at a discount, and inquiries for high - priced goods are relatively scarce [11]. - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, and the static supply - demand pattern is still in surplus. With the help of the seasonal peak season and the explosion of energy storage demand, the monthly balance after CATL's gradual production cut has turned to continuous inventory reduction, but the amplitude is average [11].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with a drop of 2.24% observed, and various institutions providing differing outlooks on the future market trends of coking coal [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1192.0 yuan before recovering slightly to 1202.0 yuan [1]. - The decline in futures is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - **Ruida Futures**: Anticipates a bullish trend for coking coal, citing a recovery in supply as production resumes and a neutral inventory situation [3]. - **Zhonghui Futures**: Notes a supportive policy environment, with a slight recovery in coking coal production and stable import levels, leading to a strong market outlook [4]. - **Guoxin Futures**: Highlights a high level of coal supply and stable demand from downstream industries, suggesting a high-level fluctuation in the market [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - The pricing of copper will return to macro trading. Without a clear recession expectation in the US, the medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate strongly under the background of loose trading. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 80,000 - 82,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, in the short term, the main contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium term, if the cost support moves down and demand does not improve significantly, prices still have downward pressure. For aluminum, in the short term, prices will maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. If subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, aluminum prices still face the risk of rising and then falling [3]. Aluminum Alloy - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, it is expected that the spot price will remain firm, the inventory accumulation rate will slow down, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to further converge. The short - term main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Against the background of improved interest - rate cut expectations, non - ferrous metals prices are generally strong, while zinc shows relatively weak performance due to the expectation of loose supply. In the short term, zinc prices may rise driven by the macro - economy, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply side remains tight, and combined with the strengthening of the US interest - rate cut expectation, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The subsequent operation range is expected to be 265,000 - 285,000. If the supply recovers smoothly, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [9]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is strong, the cost has support, there is no obvious short - term supply - demand contradiction, but the de - stocking rhythm has slowed down. In the medium term, the loose supply restricts the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 120,000 - 125,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment improves, raw material prices are firm, and cost support is strengthened, and the inventory pressure eases. However, the current peak - season demand has not been effectively realized, and the fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,800 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals maintain a tight balance. Policy window period boosts macro - expectations, and strong demand provides support for prices. In the short term, the main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 81,120 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month [1]. - In July, electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Alumina (Shandong) average price is 2,970 yuan/ton, down 0.34% [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month [3]. - In August, electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - The scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 6.98% [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month [4]. - In August, the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - The import loss is 3,294 yuan/ton, down 9.09 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month [7]. - In July, refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 272,400 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9]. - LME 0 - 3 premium is - 132.00 US dollars/ton, down 277.36% [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - In July, SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.49% [11]. - The futures import loss is - 1,507 yuan/ton, up 18.32% [11]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in August was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month [11]. - Refined nickel imports in August were 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The futures - spot price difference is 400 yuan/ton, up 14.29% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [13]. - In August, stainless - steel imports were 7.30 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month [14]. - In July, lithium carbonate imports were 13,845 tons, down 21.77% month - on - month [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Bullish [1][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Bullish [1][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Bullish [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti-involution narrative continues to boost market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up steel prices. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are relatively stable, while the downstream demand for rebar has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The iron ore market has a strong fundamental situation, with rising iron production and decreasing arrivals of foreign ores. The coking coal market is also strong, with increasing production and high imports. The coke market follows the trend of coking coal. The ferromanganese market is supported by rigid demand from iron production, and the ferrosilicon market follows the coal price trend, but the high level of warehouse receipts restricts price increases [1][4][8]. 3. Summaries by Variety Steel - **Rebar**: The anti-involution narrative boosts market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up prices. Iron production has returned to pre-parade levels, but rebar production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has increased. Currently in the demand verification stage, downstream demand has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. Policy expectations drive the market to be strong [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the anti-involution expectation boosts market confidence, leading to a strong market [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron production has recovered rapidly. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production cuts. Port inventory has increased, and steel mills have slightly replenished their stocks. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have decreased significantly, and the fundamental situation is strong. The ore price is oscillating upwards [1][8][9]. Coke - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, and coking coal leads the black series to rise. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and coking profits have decreased, but coke production is relatively stable. Iron production has increased significantly, and the demand for raw materials is high. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows the trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, strengthening market confidence. Coking coal production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased, and there is no significant short-term supply-demand contradiction. The market is strong under a favorable policy environment [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: In the context of production resumption in the production areas, supply pressure continues to increase. The recovery of iron production provides rigid support for the demand for ferromanganese. Attention should be paid to the new round of replenishment by steel mills. The supply-demand contradiction has yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the price up [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. Warehouse receipts are on a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still high, restricting price increases. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the market to follow the coal price trend [1][20][21].