丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 美国缺电将拉动多大煤炭消费量？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期美国 AI 产业快速发展所引发的缺电问题备受市场关注，2025 年美国已经出现缺电问题， 并导致煤电机组利用率提升进而导致煤炭出口量明显缩减。我们认为未来缺电问题有望持续拉 动美国煤炭消费量增长，测算来看，若煤电机组利用率进一步回升，未来美国国内煤炭需求有 望回升至 5.47-6.40 亿吨，较 2025 年年化增长 27%-48%，国内供需趋紧或引发美国煤炭出口 量大幅缩减，进而打破全球煤炭贸易格局的平衡，对全球及我国煤价形成边际支撑。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 煤炭与消 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown a slight increase of 0.28% as of May 23, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Jinkong Coal Industry (601001) up by 2.55% and Shanxi Coal International (600546) up by 1.73% [1] - The current coal supply and demand situation is relatively loose, primarily due to weak demand expectations from the power, real estate, and infrastructure sectors [1] - The long-term contract prices for coal are expected to be less affected, with companies like Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal showing stable performance due to their high proportion of long-term contracts [1] Industry Analysis - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index reflects the overall performance of 100 listed companies with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, selected from state-owned enterprises [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 15.18% of the total index, with significant contributors including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2] - The coal industry may see investment opportunities if coal prices rebound, particularly for undervalued stocks with high elasticity [1]