煤炭产能短缺
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煤炭长协与市场价倒挂,底部区间或再确认 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-29 03:02
信达证券近日发布煤炭开采行业研究报告:动力煤矿井产能利用率周环比下降,炼焦煤矿井产能利用率 周环比下降。截至12月26日,样本动力煤矿井产能利用率为86.4%,周环比下降4.0个百分点;样本炼焦 煤矿井开工率为84.21%,周环比下降2.4个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要: 本期内容提要: 动力煤价格方面:本周秦港价格周环比下降,产地大同价格周环比持平。港口动力煤:截至12月27日, 秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价677元/吨,周环比下跌34元/吨。产地动力煤:截至12月26日,陕 西榆林动力块煤(Q6000)坑口价765元/吨,周环比上涨5.0元/吨;内蒙古东胜大块精煤车板价 (Q5500)628元/吨,周环比上涨4.5元/吨;大同南郊粘煤坑口价(含税)(Q5500)555元/吨,周环比持 平。国际动力煤离岸价:截至12月27日,纽卡斯尔NEWC5500大卡动力煤FOB现货价格74.0美元/吨,周 环比下跌0.5美元/吨;ARA6000大卡动力煤现货价95.0美元/吨,周环比下跌1.1美元/吨;理查兹港动力煤 FOB现货价73.0美元/吨,周环比下跌1.3美元/吨。 炼焦煤价格方面:本周京唐港价格周 ...
煤炭长协与市场价倒挂,底部区间或再确认
Xinda Securities· 2025-12-28 11:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [2][3][11] - The underlying logic of coal supply constraints since July still exists, and there's no need to overly worry about a significant decline in coal prices. The stabilization point of coal prices is approaching [2][3][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. Coal prices have established a bottom and are on a new platform, high - quality coal enterprises maintain core asset attributes, and coal assets are relatively undervalued with potential for overall valuation improvement [3][11] - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan". The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, with high certainty in the profitability and growth of high - quality coal companies [3][12] - The coal sector has a high - dividend safety margin when it adjusts downward and upward elasticity catalyzed by the expected increase in coal prices. It is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities in the coal sector [3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: The coal economy is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. This week, the utilization rate of sample thermal coal and coking coal mine production capacity decreased. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces increased, while non - power coal demand decreased. Coal prices showed a mixed trend. Although the current market is weak, after New Year's Day, the coal consumption support is expected to strengthen. The coal allocation logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate at low levels [11] - **Key Investment Recommendations**: Focus on three types of companies: those with stable operations and performance, those that have fallen sharply previously with high elasticity, and those with special and scarce global metallurgical coal resources. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Recent Key Concerns**: In November 2025, the total social electricity consumption increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, US coal production increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and Russian coal production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.89% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 rose 1.95% to 4657.24 [14] - The thermal coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 1.24%, 0.81%, and 0.49% respectively [16] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (6.42%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (5.01%), and Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. (2.75%) [19] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of December 26, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 695.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of December 27, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced thermal coal (Q5500) was 677 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton week - on - week. At the production sites, prices in some areas rose or remained flat. International thermal coal FOB prices and some arrival prices fell [27] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of December 26, port and some production - site coking coal prices remained flat, while the arrival price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China rose 0.3 US dollars/ton week - on - week [29] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: As of December 26, the vehicle - board price of Jiaozuo anthracite remained flat, while the vehicle - board prices of some pulverized coal injection decreased [38] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 86.4%, down 4.0 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 84.21%, down 2.4 percentage points week - on - week [45] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of December 26, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal increased week - on - week [41] - **Coal - fired Power Daily Consumption and Inventory**: In both inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces, coal inventory increased, daily consumption increased, and the number of available days decreased [46] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of December 26, the Myspic composite steel price index fell, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke fell, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises decreased, the profit per ton of steel for blast furnaces increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the scrap consumption ratio of pure blast furnace enterprises decreased [64][65] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of December 26, the prices of some chemical products showed different trends, the national cement price index fell, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry decreased [68][70] 3.5 Coal Inventory Status - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased, the 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased, and the production - site inventory increased [82] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of December 26, the production - site, port, coking enterprise, and steel mill coking coal inventories all increased [83] - **Coke Inventory**: As of December 26, the total coke inventory of coking plants decreased, the four - port total coke inventory increased, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills increased [85] 3.6 Coal Transportation Status - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of December 24, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell. As of December 25, the average daily coal shipment volume on the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased week - on - week [98] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio at Four Major Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of December 26, the inventory at the four major ports in the Bohai Rim decreased, the number of anchored ships remained unchanged, and the cargo - to - ship ratio decreased [96] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of December 26, the Three Gorges outbound flow increased by 0.31% week - on - week [103] - In the next 10 days (December 28, 2025 - January 6, 2026), precipitation in some areas will be higher than normal, and after January 1, the average temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will turn 1 - 2°C lower than normal [103] - In the next 11 - 14 days (January 7 - 10, 2026), precipitation and temperature in different regions will show different trends [103] 3.8 Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies - **Valuation Table**: The report provides the valuation data of key listed companies, including net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and PE from 2024A to 2027E [104] - **Key Announcements**: There are announcements from multiple companies, such as the share transfer of Jizhong Energy, the completion of the shareholding increase plan of Panjiang Co., Ltd., the acceptance of the application for asset acquisition by Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd., the guarantee provided by Kailuan Co., Ltd., and the maintenance of the credit rating of Meijin Energy [105][106][107] 3.9 This Week's Key Industry News - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% - 5% export tax on coal from 2026 [109] - In November 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 19.9% year - on - year, with thermal coal imports increasing by 7.0% month - on - month and coking coal imports increasing by 1.3% month - on - month [109] - 8000 tons of high - quality Mongolian coal arrived in Gannan [109] - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 17.1% year - on - year [109]
市场延续弱势,筑底预期趋强 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-12-22 02:03
信达证券近日发布煤炭开采行业周报:化工周度耗煤:截至12月19日,化工周度耗煤较上周上升2.58万 吨/日,周环比增加0.35%。高炉开工率:截至12月19日,全国高炉开工率78.5%,周环比下降0.16百分 点。水泥开工率:截至12月19日,水泥熟料产能利用率为37.7%,周环比下跌1.3百分点。 沿海八省日耗周环比增加,内陆十七省日耗周环比下降。沿海八省:截至12月18日,沿海八省煤炭库存 较上周下降21.80万吨,周环比下降0.63%;日耗较上周上升4.70万吨/日,周环比增加2.35%;可用天数 较上周下降0.50天。内陆十七省:截至12月18日,内陆十七省煤炭库存较上周下降64.20万吨,周环比下 降0.64%;日耗较上周下降16.60万吨/日,周环比下降4.23%;可用天数较上周上升1.00天。 化工耗煤周环比增加,钢铁高炉开工率周环比下降。化工周度耗煤:截至12月19日,化工周度耗煤较上 周上升2.58万吨/日,周环比增加0.35%。高炉开工率:截至12月19日,全国高炉开工率78.5%,周环比 下降0.16百分点。水泥开工率:截至12月19日,水泥熟料产能利用率为37.7%,周环比下跌1.3百 ...
市场延续弱势,筑底预期趋强
Xinda Securities· 2025-12-21 11:16
市场延续弱势,筑底预期趋强 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究-周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | [Table_StockAndRank] 煤炭开采 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Title] 市场延续弱势,筑底预期趋强 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 ◆ 动力煤价格方面:本周秦港价格周环比下降,产地大同价格周环比下降。 港口动力煤:截至 12 月 20 日,秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价 711 元/吨,周环比下跌 42 元/吨。产地动力煤:截至 12 月 19 日,陕 西榆林动力块煤(Q6000)坑口价 760 元/吨,周环比下跌 10.0 元/吨; 内蒙古东胜大块精煤车板价(Q5500)623 元/吨,周环比持平;大同南郊 粘煤坑口价(含税)(Q5500)555 元/吨 ...
煤价短期承压,静候企稳契机
Xinda Securities· 2025-12-14 07:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The supply-side constraints that have been in place since July remain, suggesting limited downside risk for coal prices, which are expected to stabilize [10][11] - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5%, indicating strong core asset attributes [10][11] - The coal assets are relatively undervalued, with expectations for overall valuation improvement, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market [10][11] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of December 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 753 CNY/ton, down 38 CNY/ton week-on-week [27] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 78.0 USD/ton, down 6.0 USD/ton week-on-week [27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1650 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 92.5%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point week-on-week [44] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 6.20 thousand tons/day (+1.61%) [45] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has increased by 2.00 thousand tons/day (+1.01%) [45] Inventory Situation - As of December 11, coal inventory in inland provinces has decreased by 11.90 thousand tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a reduction of 71.10 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces have decreased by 0.50 days week-on-week [45] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable operators with solid performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [11] - Pay attention to companies with higher elasticity like Yanzhou Coal, Electric Power Energy, and Guanghui Energy [11] - Consider high-quality metallurgical coal companies such as Huaibei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy [11]
需求偏弱震荡或延续,供给约束深跌亦难为
Xinda Securities· 2025-12-07 07:53
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side constraints are expected to support prices despite high inventory levels and mild weather conditions, with coal prices anticipated to exhibit a bottoming and oscillating trend [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply-demand scenario and a long-term gap still present [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of December 6, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 791 RMB/ton, down 27 RMB/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 85.5 USD/ton, down 1.8 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1650 RMB/ton, down 60 RMB/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [48] - The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces has increased by 32.10 thousand tons/day, a rise of 9.07% week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in coastal 8 provinces has increased by 10.70 thousand tons/day, a rise of 5.72% week-on-week [47] Inventory Situation - The coal inventory in inland 17 provinces has decreased by 100.60 thousand tons, a decline of 0.99% week-on-week [47] - The coal inventory in coastal 8 provinces has increased by 51.10 thousand tons, an increase of 1.48% week-on-week [47] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a positive performance with a 0.77% increase, although it underperformed compared to the broader market [14][17] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are noted for their stable operations and strong performance [12][13]
供给硬约束托底,需求慢变量助推,煤价升势可期
Xinda Securities· 2025-11-30 12:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [3][11] - The supply side remains tight, with a decrease in coal production over the past four months, providing a solid support for coal prices [3][11] - Demand is gradually increasing, particularly in power generation, which is expected to drive down inventory levels in the downstream market [3][11] - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5%, indicating strong asset attributes [3][11] - The coal sector is currently undervalued, with expectations for overall valuation improvement [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 29, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 818 RMB/ton, down 9 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][30] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang port is 1710 RMB/ton, down 80 RMB/ton week-on-week [2][32] - International thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with Newcastle coal at 87.5 USD/ton, up 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [2][30] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.3%, down 0.2 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 3,000 tons/day (+0.85%) while coastal provinces have seen a slight decrease [3][48] - The overall supply remains tight, with expectations for coal prices to trend upward due to the supply-demand dynamics [3][11] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces has increased by 557,000 tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces have seen an increase of 1,160,000 tons [3][48] - The available days of coal supply in inland provinces have decreased slightly, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][48] Company Focus - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong performance [12] - Companies with higher elasticity such as Yancoal Australia and Gansu Energy Chemical are also highlighted for potential investment [12]
继续看好,坚定逢低布局
Xinda Securities· 2025-11-23 11:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal stocks on dips [12][13] - The report highlights a tight supply situation, with coal prices stabilizing at a new platform, and emphasizes the high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yield of quality coal companies [12][13] - The report suggests that the coal sector is undervalued and has potential for valuation enhancement, with a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical elasticity [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shanxi at the pit head is 780 RMB/ton, up by 15 RMB/ton week-on-week [28] - International thermal coal prices have seen slight increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 86.5 USD/ton, up by 1.5 USD/ton [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces has increased by 14.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 4.37% week-on-week [12] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption in 8 coastal provinces has also risen by 7.5 thousand tons/day, up by 4.18% week-on-week [12] Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 25.5 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 89.1 thousand tons [12] - The report indicates a decrease in available days of coal supply in both coastal and inland regions [12] Company Performance - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to maintain stable operations and robust earnings [13] - It also highlights companies with higher elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and others, suggesting they are worth monitoring [13]
继续看涨煤价和看多板块,回调即再布局良机
Xinda Securities· 2025-11-16 06:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][12] - The coal price is expected to rise due to factors such as cold weather and low inventory levels at ports, which may drive demand quickly [4][12] - The coal sector remains undervalued, with a strong potential for price recovery and high dividend yields, making it a favorable investment opportunity [4][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1830 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.2%, up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while for coking coal it is 86.28%, up 2.5 percentage points [4][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 12.3 thousand tons/day (+3.8%), while consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 8.0 thousand tons/day (-4.26%) [4][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 464 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 2.517 million tons [4][12] Company Performance - The coal sector's performance is highlighted by companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong earnings [13][14]
旺季需求临近,煤价涨势未休
Xinda Securities· 2025-11-09 12:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [11]. - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. The coal price has established a bottom and its central level has reached a new platform. High - quality coal enterprises maintain their core asset attributes, and coal assets are still undervalued with potential for valuation improvement. The coal sector has both dividend characteristics and pro - cyclical elasticity [3]. - In the context of energy inflation, the pattern of tight coal supply and demand in the next 3 - 5 years remains unchanged. High - quality coal enterprises have high - barrier, high - cash, high - dividend, and high - dividend - yield attributes. After a short - term correction, the coal sector has shown high investment value [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: In the short - term, coal supply and demand are basically balanced, but there is a long - term gap. Coal prices are expected to rise further due to tight supply and upcoming seasonal demand. Coal assets are cost - effective, with high win - rate and high odds. The report continues to be bullish on coal and suggests allocation at low levels [11]. - **Key Concerns**: From January to October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 11.0% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, coal and coking coal imports in India decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, and in Japan decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 4.43% this week, outperforming the market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.82% [14]. - The thermal coal sector rose 4.60%, the coking coal sector rose 2.46%, and the coke sector rose 6.42% [15]. - The top three stocks in terms of gains and losses in the coal mining and washing sector were Huayang Co., Ltd. (11.50%), Jinkong Coal Industry (10.11%), and China National Coal Group Corporation (8.54%) [18] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of November 7, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 703.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23]. - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 8, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 808 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. International thermal coal FOB prices also increased [29]. - **Coking Coal Price**: As of November 7, the ex - warehouse price of primary coking coal from Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CIF price of Australian Peak View Mine hard coking coal in China was 212.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week [31]. - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of November 7, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 1020.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased [39] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91.1%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 83.76%, down 1.0 percentage points week - on - week [46]. - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of November 7, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 79.1 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 75.2 yuan/ton, down 20.1 yuan/ton week - on - week [42]. - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased, while daily consumption decreased. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory decreased, while daily consumption increased [45]. - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of November 7, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, and the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises increased [64][65]. - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of November 7, the prices of urea in some regions decreased, the national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, the synthetic ammonia price index increased, the cement price index increased slightly, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry increased [70][74][76] 3.5 Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 577.0 tons. The 55 - port thermal coal inventory decreased to 6148.7 tons as of October 31, and the production - area inventory decreased to 292.0 tons [91]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the production - area coking coal inventory increased to 165.6 tons, the six - port coking coal inventory increased to 304.3 tons, the coking enterprise inventory increased to 923.8 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased to 787.3 tons [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of November 7, the total coke inventory of coking plants, four - port coke inventory, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills all decreased [94] 3.6 Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of November 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2104.0 points, up 138.0 points week - on - week. As of November 6, the average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway increased slightly week - on - week [108]. - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of November 7, the inventory of four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1449.0 tons, the number of anchored ships was 106, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 13.7, down 4.03 week - on - week [106] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of November 7, the Three Gorges outflow was 10200 cubic meters per second, down 23.88% week - on - week. - In the next 10 days (November 9 - 18), there will be precipitation in some areas, with high - impact weather including cooling in Xinjiang and central - eastern regions. - In the next 11 - 14 days (November 19 - 22), there will be light precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be different from the normal level [113] 3.8 Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table provides the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed coal companies from 2024A to 2027E [114]. - **Key Announcements**: Companies such as Meijin Energy, China Shenhua, and Hengyuan Coal and Electricity have made announcements regarding project terminations, asset acquisitions, and corporate restructurings [115][116][118]