Group 1 - The coal industry is experiencing a cost increase, with coal prices falling below the full cost, indicating that the industry may have reached its bottom [4][10][33] - The full cost of high-quality thermal coal from the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions to Qinhuangdao port is estimated to be 630 RMB/ton in 2024, which is an increase from previous years [4][33] - The report highlights that the average production cost of self-produced coal for major companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy is around 200 RMB/ton, with China Shenhua having the lowest cost at 179 RMB/ton [21][20][10] Group 2 - The report indicates that high-cost production capacity is beginning to shrink, and supply-demand rebalancing is the core logic for the bottoming of coal prices [4][5] - Domestic low coal prices are suppressing imports, with a notable decrease in imported coal volumes since 2025, which is expected to continue [4][5] - Seasonal demand improvements for electricity generation are noted, with a decrease in port inventories since mid-May, suggesting a tightening domestic supply [4][5] Group 3 - The report recommends a strategic bullish outlook on the coal sector, particularly favoring companies with high long-term contract ratios and flexible pricing mechanisms, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5][4] - The report emphasizes that while coal prices may remain low for a period, the expectation is that supply will naturally clear over time, leading to a potential rebound in prices [5][4] - The analysis of transportation costs indicates that the average transportation cost from the pit to the Qinhuangdao port is approximately 200-250 RMB/ton, which is a critical factor in determining overall coal pricing [24][25][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover in price, supported by seasonal demand increases and a solid bottoming out of coal prices [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of June 1, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 613 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang port is 1290 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [30] - International thermal coal prices show slight fluctuations, with Newcastle coal at 67.2 USD/ton, up 0.2 USD/ton week-on-week [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 1 percentage point week-on-week [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 35.7 thousand tons/day (-11.29%) [11][12] - The high furnace operating rate is reported at 83.87%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [11][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 12.7 thousand tons, with daily consumption down by 16.5 thousand tons/day [11][12] - The inventory of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is reported at 675 thousand tons, down 7.5% week-on-week [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention should also be given to companies with significant price elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power Energy [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, making it a compelling investment opportunity [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize at a new level, supported by a slowdown in coal production growth, particularly in high-cost regions like Xinjiang, and a decrease in coal imports [11][12] - The coal sector is characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) between 10-20%, and dividend yields exceeding 5%, indicating strong core asset attributes [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of May 24, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 613 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1320 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton week-on-week [3][32] - International thermal coal prices show a mixed trend, with Newcastle thermal coal at 68.0 USD/ton, down 1.0 USD/ton week-on-week [3][30] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of thermal coal mines increased to 97.1%, while coking coal mine utilization decreased to 86.3% [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rose by 7.10 thousand tons/day (+3.93%) and in inland provinces by 6.00 thousand tons/day (+1.93%) [11][12] - The April coal production in China was 390 million tons, reflecting a 5 million ton decrease from March, indicating a contraction in supply [11][12] 3. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality coal companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12][13] - The coal sector is expected to maintain high performance and cash flow, with a favorable outlook for the next 3-5 years due to ongoing supply constraints [12][13] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector saw a 0.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 0.18% decline [15][18] - The thermal coal segment rose by 1.62%, while the coking coal segment experienced a slight decline [15][18]

关税缓和+日耗回升，煤价筑底了吗？20250518 摘要 • 港口煤价加速下跌主要受交易层面影响，秦皇岛等港口调入量大增，发运 积极性提升，但上市公司高频生产数据显示四月产量未增反降，尤其民营 企业占比较高的鄂尔多斯和榆林区域产量进一步下滑。 • 海外市场煤炭价格相对平稳，对国内煤价影响有限。澳大利亚和印尼煤炭 价格折算到岸含税价仍高于国内，欧洲天然气价格上涨支撑煤炭需求，表 明国内供需宽松下海外市场韧性较强。 • 秦皇岛港库存小幅上涨，北方总库存略有下降，电厂端库存平稳。发改委 号召电厂积极协作，电厂无进一步调运计划，总体主流港口库存处于高位， 秦皇岛和广州南方口岸短期震荡上行。 • 煤炭股表现与煤价走势背离，神华、兖矿等公司股价上涨。公募基金主动 权益持仓中煤炭占比极低，基本面向好预期增强，资金交易需求可能延续， 市场仍有向后旺季预期。 • 二季度国内煤炭生产积极性普遍不高，国企减产，民营企业因价格低迷自 主减产。鄂尔多斯前五月平均日产量低于 2023 年水平，供应端呈现边际 收缩。 Q&A 本周秦港煤价出现了显著下跌，具体情况如何？ 本周秦皇岛港的煤价从 640 元跌至 623 元，跌幅达到 2.5%以 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector assets [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term balance in supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still anticipated [11][12] - The coal price is expected to stabilize and rise, with historical patterns suggesting a potential turning point in consumption by late May as the summer electricity demand season approaches [3][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 16, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 618 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [29] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.3 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1350 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 96.1%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [3][47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 1.20 million tons/day (-0.39%), while coastal provinces saw an increase of 7.10 million tons/day (+4.09%) [3][48] - The chemical industry’s coal consumption decreased by 22.31 thousand tons/day (-3.11%) [11] Inventory Situation - As of May 15, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 337 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw a decrease of 26 thousand tons [48] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 0.20 days, while it decreased by 0.80 days in coastal provinces [48] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with a 1.65% increase in the coal sector index, outperforming the broader market [14] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others with stable operations and strong performance [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11][12] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 652 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.9%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.74%, up 1.36 percentage points [4][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 18.40 thousand tons/day (-6.21%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 9.30 thousand tons/day (+5.27%) [4][48] Inventory and Transportation - As of April 29, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 2.59% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a 0.77% increase [48] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is showing an upward trend, indicating a potential increase in demand as the summer peak approaches [4][48] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 652 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.9%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.74%, up 1.36 percentage points [4][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 18.40 thousand tons/day (-6.21%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 9.30 thousand tons/day (+5.27%) [4][48] Inventory and Transportation - As of April 29, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 2.59% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a 0.77% increase [48] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is showing an upward trend, indicating a potential increase in demand as the summer peak approaches [4][48] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The coal price is believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a rebound in demand for replenishment in mid to late May [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of April 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 657 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 70.6 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94.2%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 88.38%, up 0.68 percentage points [10][44] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10.70 thousand tons/day (-3.5%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 4.40 thousand tons/day (+2.48%) [10][45] Inventory Situation - As of April 24, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 186.10 thousand tons, while inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 24.50 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 1.60 days, while it decreased by 0.50 days in coastal provinces [45] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal and Datong Coal [11]