邱达治 华源证券煤炭分析师: 各位投资者好，我是华融证券的煤炭分析师邱达智。今天是开工的第一天，非常高兴跟各 位投资者分享一下今年的煤炭策略。在开始之前，先祝大家开工大吉。这个煤炭策略报告 是我们在 2025 年 12 月撰写的。主要的题目是供给看政策，需求看天气。紧随去库主线， 布局红利龙头。题目写的还是比较直白的，也就是说在 2026 年，煤炭的供给侧主要是政 策在发力，政策对于供给端的一个约束，会持续的发，产生影响。也是决定了供给的一个 主要的走向。 那么在需求端，天气的影响会比较大，也是说明了其实宏观的一个需求可能较为平静。那 么需，天气它不仅影响了水电的一个挤占的一个作用。另外，对于新能源的一个发力情况 在月度的影响，也会对煤炭的一个需求。产生比较大的一个作用。另外就是我们后半句的 紧随去库主线，还布局红利龙头。因为目前的煤炭总体库存还是在一个高点。往去库的一 个趋势去发展，所以全年的一个高库存和去库也是一个大家需要关注的一个。主要方向， 而红利，在全年的一个布局里面，也是一个非常的重要的主题。 我们的报告就分为动力煤、炼焦煤两个部分进行展开。动力煤，而且每个部分都是从供需 角度去分析。因为煤炭的价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tightening of supply in the coal industry is becoming an investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - The demand for coal is expected to rise as temperatures increase, resulting in higher daily coal consumption in thermal power plants, which may improve the coal supply-demand balance [1] - The current inventory depletion is faster than in previous years, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a significant increase in coal inventory at northern ports due to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth and stable demand from industries like cement and chemicals [2] Group 2 - The strong demand for coal during the summer peak in 2025 is leading to rapid inventory depletion, with the inventory dynamics reflecting changes in the supply-demand environment [3] - The investment logic suggests that elastic stocks are likely to benefit from the tightening of supply, with expectations of increased thermal coal demand due to higher summer temperatures [4] - The establishment of a policy bottom for coal prices provides a profit floor for coal companies, ensuring high dividend-paying stocks have guaranteed earnings and potential valuation increases [5]