煤炭去库

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方正证券:高温深化去库与政策共振 煤炭价格上行通道持续巩固
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 08:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the tightening of supply in the coal industry is becoming an investment theme, with the oversupply situation expected to gradually reverse, leading to a potential increase in coal prices [1] - The demand for coal is expected to rise as temperatures increase, resulting in higher daily coal consumption in thermal power plants, which may improve the coal supply-demand balance [1] - The current inventory depletion is faster than in previous years, with the first quarter of 2025 showing a significant increase in coal inventory at northern ports due to a slowdown in industrial electricity growth and stable demand from industries like cement and chemicals [2] Group 2 - The strong demand for coal during the summer peak in 2025 is leading to rapid inventory depletion, with the inventory dynamics reflecting changes in the supply-demand environment [3] - The investment logic suggests that elastic stocks are likely to benefit from the tightening of supply, with expectations of increased thermal coal demand due to higher summer temperatures [4] - The establishment of a policy bottom for coal prices provides a profit floor for coal companies, ensuring high dividend-paying stocks have guaranteed earnings and potential valuation increases [5]