煤炭反内卷政策梳理：超产核查渐落地，供给收缩仍可期 20251014 煤炭反内卷政策是如何发展的？其对行业有何影响？ 煤炭反内卷政策自今年（2025 年）7 月开始逐步出台，并经历了酝酿期、响应 期和落地期三个阶段。具体发展如下： 1. 酝酿期：7 月 10 日国家发改委签发《关于组织开展煤矿生产情况核查促 进煤炭供应平稳有序的通知》，但政策细则直到 7 月 22 日才公布。 1. 夏季持续时间长：今年夏季持续时间异常长，尤其在华南和上海地区， 这导致煤炭日耗量维持在较高水平。 2. 天气影响：北方地区进入秋季后气温下降并伴随连绵秋雨，这对煤炭的 开采、运输和出港产生了影响。 3. 市场避险需求增加：中美贸易战再起及市场对避险和防守需求增强，使 得煤炭作为防守性板块受到关注。 摘要 异常夏季延长华南和上海煤炭日耗，北方秋雨影响煤炭开采运输，中美 贸易战引发市场避险需求，多重因素叠加致节后煤价超预期上涨。 煤炭反内卷政策历经酝酿、响应、落地三阶段，通过核查超产和停产处 罚影响供给端，加剧市场对未来供应紧张的预期。 煤炭行业未来走势取决于基本面能否支撑红利股和防守性板块的预期， 关注夏季高温、北方秋雨、政策执行力 ...

行业深度："反内卷" - 煤炭执牛耳 20250922 摘要 国家首次正式出台煤炭反内卷政策（108 号文），旨在规范煤炭产量， 要求 2024 年产量不超过公告产能，2025 年上半年不超过 10%，重点 核查晋陕蒙疆等主产区，以稳定煤炭市场。 各省已自查并上报煤炭产量，内蒙古自查显示存在严重超产问题。政策 执行难点在于公告产能年份未明确，可能导致部分地区，尤其是大型先 进矿井，面临较大减产压力，预计影响量达 8,500 万吨。 内蒙古在产矿井约 300 座，合计产能 12.31 亿吨，与 2022 年 1 月公告 产能相符，意味着 2022 年后核增的约 4 亿吨产能可能不被纳入。反内 卷政策将收缩煤炭供给，部分手续不全的核增矿井或需退回。 中国历史上多次通过限制进口稳定煤价，如 2014 年商品煤质量管理办 法和 2020 年限制澳煤进口。当前国际局势复杂，直接限制进口难度大， 但国家统筹安排可防止国外供应大量涌入。 煤炭供给侧改革始于 2015 年底，通过去产能、停建项目及配套支持政 策，有效改善行业状况。目前全国一级矿井总产能达 20 亿吨，单井规 模显著增加，表明去产能政策成功。 Q&A 煤炭反内 ...

摘要 煤炭行业受反内卷政策影响，晋陕蒙新疆密集出台供应端约束措施，表 明后续政策可能继续发力，板块在低机构持仓、基本面边际改善及政策 催化下将表现良好。 7 月以来全国煤炭产量同比明显下降，体现政策约束效果。93 阅兵后供 应恢复有限，需求端铁水产量快速恢复至 240 以上，供需情况显示需求 恢复快于供应，推动价格上涨。 动力煤是电力生产主要成本，焦煤是钢铁生产关键原材料。控制煤炭成 本对提升中游产能利用率、稳定 PPI 至关重要，是反内卷政策落地的关 键。 7 月初反内卷政策引发市场热潮后有所回调，但新一轮政策再次点燃热 情。7、8 月实际产量下降，北方港口库存压力缓解，供应收缩对库存去 化效果显著。 9 月阅兵后生产恢复有限，焦煤恢复慢于动力煤，安全事故也限制生产。 晋陕蒙、新疆等地出台约束生产新政，供需边际改善明显，十一补库需 求提供支撑。 Q&A 最近煤炭行业的政策进展如何？ 最近煤炭行业的政策出台频繁，尤其是针对反内卷的措施。7 月 10 日发布的 108 号文奠定了反内卷政策框架，随后各地相继出台具体落实文件。9 月 1 日 陕西省发布了关于优化煤炭生产、促进市场平稳运行的通知，要求严格按照合 法 ...

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal production in the four provinces of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang accounts for 81.4% of the national total, with varying growth rates: Shanxi at 7.2%, Inner Mongolia flat, Xinjiang at 8.2%, and Heilongjiang at 34.1% [1][2][3] - National coal imports decreased by 13% year-on-year in the first seven months, but increased by 20% month-on-month in August, indicating fluctuating demand influenced by price and policy [1][2] - Power generation increased by 1.3% year-on-year in the first seven months, with a notable 3.1% increase in July due to high temperatures [1][2] Key Points on Supply and Demand - Total coal supply for the first seven months was 3.04 billion tons, a 2.1% increase year-on-year, with a 5.8% decrease in July [2] - Coal inventory at enterprises rose by 46% year-on-year in July, while major port inventories decreased by 3% [1][2] - The implementation of Document 108 aims to control overproduction to alleviate market pressure, but its effectiveness is contingent on cooperation from safety supervision departments [1][6][7] Market Dynamics - The trading activity in the thermal coal market has decreased, with power companies maintaining sufficient inventory and non-power sector demand not significantly increasing [5] - The price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal is expected to fluctuate between 650 and 700 RMB/ton in the second half of the year [1][21] Challenges and Risks - The coal industry faces significant downward pressure, with nearly 60% of companies reporting losses, although this is an improvement from 80% during the most challenging years [10] - Legal risks associated with overproduction have increased since the 2019 safety production law reform, making enterprises cautious about exceeding production limits [10] - Local enterprises are under economic pressure, leading to some overproduction, which requires strict regulation [10] Future Outlook - The coal supply is expected to maintain slight growth in the coming months, with production potentially increasing post-October if no further measures are implemented [4][9] - The potential for new import quota policies is low due to ongoing trade tensions, but temporary measures to reduce imports may be considered [22] Additional Insights - The implementation of the 276 working day system for capacity reduction is limited, with only a few mines potentially adopting it due to operational challenges [12] - The current coal production capacity that has not completed necessary procedures is approximately 100 million tons, mainly in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang [15] - The transportation costs for coal from Xinjiang are high, providing some support for domestic coal prices when port prices fall below 650 RMB/ton [17][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the conference call regarding the coal industry, highlighting production trends, market dynamics, challenges, and future expectations.