Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded above 700 RMB, with a current price of 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB/ton (3.53%) [3][4] - The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [4] - The report predicts that the current rebound in coal prices is at a turning point, with potential further increases expected as the market stabilizes [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 RMB [4][13] - Future expectations indicate that thermal coal prices could reach a third target price of approximately 750 RMB, with a potential peak at around 860 RMB [4][13] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 3.51% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.96 percentage points [8][25] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.59, and the PB ratio is 1.28, ranking low among all A-share industries [25][31] Coal Price Indicators - As of September 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB [20] - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang port has risen to 1670 RMB/ton, reflecting a significant increase from earlier months [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investment in coal stocks, focusing on both cyclical recovery and stable dividends, with specific stocks recommended for investment [5][14] - Key stocks identified for investment include: - Cyclical logic: Jinko Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment Energy - Growth logic: Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight price decline, but there are positive factors that may support a rebound in coal prices, particularly in the non-electric coal sector during the upcoming demand season [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of September 5, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 679 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton or 1.59% from the previous period [2]. - The current price is below 700 RMB/ton, following a rebound above this level [2]. - The market is transitioning from summer to autumn, with expectations for increased non-electric coal demand in September and October [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is at a low level of 79.5%, down 0.4 percentage points as of August 31 [2]. - Port inventories are decreasing, with the inventory in the Bohai Rim at 22.66 million tons, down 1.48% as of September 5, and Guangzhou Port inventory declining by over 7% [2]. - Non-electric coal demand, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is expected to increase, with methanol operating rates at 83.72%, up 1.41 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Coking Coal Market - As of September 5, the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1540 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July [2]. - Coking coal futures have seen a significant increase, rising from 719 RMB in early June to 1159 RMB, a cumulative increase of 61.2% [2]. - The coking coal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with supply tightening due to regulatory measures [2]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The price of thermal coal is expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above 700 RMB, with a target of around 750 RMB by 2025 [3]. - The breakeven point for power plants is estimated at around 860 RMB, which could serve as a price ceiling [3]. - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal is 2.4, with target prices for coking coal set at 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is seen as having both cyclical and dividend attributes, making it a favorable time for investment [5]. - Four main investment lines are identified: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 - Metallurgical coal: 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend potential: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified growth: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5].