开源证券近日发布煤炭行业周报：动力煤价格微跌，截至9月26日，秦港Q5500动力煤平 仓价为701元/吨，本周最高价格达到706元/吨。当前正处于夏季和秋季换挡期，叠加国庆假 期前补库需求，后续金九银十的非电煤需求有望成为亮点。截至9月26日，京唐港主焦煤报 价1750元/吨，从七月初的1230元的底部反弹；焦煤期货反弹更为明显，从6月初的719元反 弹至当前的1197元，累计涨幅达到66.48%；炼焦煤价格随着动力煤价格的波动而波动，在 2.4倍比值有非常明显的规律。 本周要闻回顾：动力煤价格再度反弹至700元之上 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资建议：周期与红利双逻辑，四主线布局 煤炭股双逻辑之一：周期弹性。当前动力煤和炼焦煤价格仍处于历史低位，为反弹提供 了空间。随着供给端"查超产"政策推动产量收缩，以及需求端"金九银十"旺季非电煤需求预 期回暖，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，两类煤种价格均具备向上弹性。其中，动力煤有长 协机制修复和"煤和火电企业盈利均分"的逻辑支撑；而炼焦煤因市场化程度更高，对供需变 化更敏感，可能展现出更大的价格弹性。煤炭股双逻辑之二：稳健红利。从中报数据看，即 便在2025年盈利整体承压 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded above 700 RMB, with a current price of 704 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB/ton (3.53%) [3][4] - The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months, particularly during the "golden September and silver October" period [4] - The report predicts that the current rebound in coal prices is at a turning point, with potential further increases expected as the market stabilizes [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 RMB [4][13] - Future expectations indicate that thermal coal prices could reach a third target price of approximately 750 RMB, with a potential peak at around 860 RMB [4][13] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 3.51% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.96 percentage points [8][25] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.59, and the PB ratio is 1.28, ranking low among all A-share industries [25][31] Coal Price Indicators - As of September 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 704 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 24 RMB [20] - The price of coking coal at the Jingtang port has risen to 1670 RMB/ton, reflecting a significant increase from earlier months [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for investment in coal stocks, focusing on both cyclical recovery and stable dividends, with specific stocks recommended for investment [5][14] - Key stocks identified for investment include: - Cyclical logic: Jinko Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining - Dividend logic: China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy - Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment Energy - Growth logic: Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy [5][14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The current prices of thermal coal and coking coal are at historical lows, providing room for a rebound due to supply-side policies and seasonal demand recovery [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side "overproduction checks" policy is leading to a contraction in output, while the demand-side expectations for the "golden September and silver October" peak season are improving non-electric coal demand [1] - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to continue improving, with both types of coal showing upward price elasticity [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Dividends - Despite the overall profit pressure expected in 2025, most coal companies maintain high dividend yields, indicating strong dividend intentions [1] - Six listed coal companies have announced mid-term dividend plans, with a total dividend scale of 24.13 billion, continuing the trend of seven companies' dividends in mid-2024 [1] - The willingness and frequency of dividends among coal enterprises have significantly increased, reflecting the dual attributes of the coal sector in terms of cycles and dividends [1] Group 3: Investment Timing - The coal sector is currently at a low holding position, and the fundamentals are at a turning point, indicating that it is an opportune time for investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a rebound in prices, particularly for thermal coal and coking coal, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [1][2][3]. Thermal Coal Summary - As of September 12, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 680 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 1 CNY/ton or 0.15% from the previous period [1][2]. - The price had previously dropped to 675 CNY/ton, which serves as the benchmark for annual long-term contracts, before rebounding [2][3]. - The transition from summer to autumn is expected to boost non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" period [2]. Coking Coal Summary - The price of coking coal at the Jing Tang port is currently 1540 CNY/ton, up from a low of 1230 CNY/ton in early July [2]. - Coking coal futures have shown a significant rebound, rising from 719 CNY in early June to 1145 CNY, marking a cumulative increase of 59.2% [1][2]. - Coking coal prices are expected to stabilize around 1540 CNY/ton, supported by current demand levels [2]. Investment Logic - The prices of thermal and coking coal are believed to be on the right side of a turning point, with expectations for further recovery towards long-term contract prices [3]. - The current market dynamics suggest that thermal coal prices may reach a target of around 750 CNY/ton by 2025, with a potential peak around 860 CNY/ton [3]. - Coking coal prices are projected based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to various thermal coal price targets [3]. Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is characterized by dual logic: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4][5]. - The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for upward movement, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand [5]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, indicating strong dividend intentions despite overall profit pressures [5]. - Key stocks to consider include those benefiting from cyclical logic (e.g., Jinko Coal, Yanzhou Coal), dividend logic (e.g., China Shenhua, China Coal Energy), and growth potential (e.g., Xinjie Energy, Guanghui Energy) [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the coal sector possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, and the current low holdings in coal indicate that the fundamentals have reached a turning point, making it an opportune time for investment [1] - The report highlights four main investment themes in coal stocks: cyclical logic, dividend logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic [1] Group 2 - In the thermal coal market, prices have slightly declined, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price at 679 RMB/ton as of September 5, down 11 RMB/ton or 1.59% from the previous period [2] - The report notes that the current coal market is in a transitional phase between summer and autumn, with non-electric coal demand expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [2] - Factors supporting a rebound in coal prices include low operating rates and decreasing port inventories, with the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 79.5%, down 0.4 percentage points [2] Group 3 - For coking coal, the price at the Jingtang Port is 1540 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July, while coking coal futures have increased by 61.2% from 719 RMB in June to the current price [3] - The report indicates that the supply side is tightening due to government measures to check overproduction, while demand is expected to be supported by projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station [3] Group 4 - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above 700 RMB [4] - The report predicts that the future price of thermal coal could reach around 750 RMB by 2025, with a potential peak price around 860 RMB [4] - For coking coal, the target prices are set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, with potential target prices of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB corresponding to different benchmarks [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a favorable fundamental outlook [4][17] - The current price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 653 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.2% increase from the lowest price earlier this year [4][35] - The supply side remains constrained with a low operating rate of 81.3% among 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [4][25] - The demand for electricity coal is high due to the summer peak season, supporting price increases [4][25] - Coking coal prices have also surged, with the price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1680 CNY/ton, a 16.67% increase [4][26] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The coal market fundamentals are favorable, and it is time to position for growth as prices are expected to recover towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY [4][17] - The price of coking coal is more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices indicating a recovery from previous lows [4][17] Market Performance - The coal index rose by 7.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.29 percentage points [28] - Major coal companies have shown significant price increases, with Lu'an Energy up by 31.22% and Jinko Coal up by 18.83% [28] Key Indicators - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.23, and the PB ratio is 1.26, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [29][32] - The port price for thermal coal has seen a slight increase, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price rising by 1.71% [35][38] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of coal mines is at a low level, which may lead to further price increases as supply tightens [4][25] - The demand for non-electric coal remains strong, with methanol production rates at historical highs [4][25] Investment Recommendations - Four main investment lines are suggested: 1. Cycle logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 for dividend potential 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][18]

Coal Industry - Coal prices have started to rebound, indicating a bottoming out of the market fundamentals as supply and demand improve since May 2025 [1] - Electricity consumption growth was only 3.1% from January to April 2025, significantly lower than 6.8% in 2024, but has increased to 4.4% in May, leading to a positive shift in thermal power generation [1] - Domestic coal production in May reached 400 million tons, with a notable decrease in imports, which fell by 17.7% year-on-year to 36.04 million tons [1] - The coal industry is expected to see a stable supply-demand balance in the medium term, with prices likely to rise during the summer peak [2] - As of June 20, 2025, the price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [3] Aviation Industry - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to see industry-wide profitability in May 2025, driven by a recovery in demand and ticket price increases [5] - Domestic ticket prices turned positive for the first time, with an estimated increase of 4% year-on-year in May, while fuel costs decreased by 19% [6] - Passenger traffic grew by 8% in May, with significant increases during the May Day holiday, indicating strong demand for family travel [6] - The summer travel season is anticipated to be optimistic, with airlines actively managing ticket sales and pricing strategies [8] - The supply of aircraft is expected to remain limited, but demand from family travel will continue to support high passenger volumes during the summer [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that coal prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with an expected turning point in June as temperatures rise and inventory decreases [1] - The recent reduction in railway freight rates for coal transportation from Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reflects significant losses in these regions, leading to a decrease in transportation costs [1] - In April, national coal production saw a substantial decrease of 50 million tons to 390 million tons, indicating a self-induced reduction in supply due to economic factors at a port price of 650 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - For thermal coal, a price rebound is anticipated in June, with the current market price for Q5500 coal at 621 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - Domestic supply remains stable while imports continue to decline, with expectations that total supply will maintain stability throughout the year [2] - The demand side shows signs of recovery, particularly in non-electric coal, which is expected to help coal prices return to an upward trajectory [2] Group 3 - In the coking coal sector, the price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is currently 1270 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton (-2.3%) from the previous week, indicating a peak in iron and steel demand [3] - The average daily iron and steel production is reported at 2.4185 million tons, showing a slight decrease, suggesting that the peak in iron and steel production has been reached [3] - The cost of domestic coking coal remains lower than that of imported coal, with a significant price advantage of 448 RMB/ton for domestic coking coal compared to Australian imports [3]

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing significant supply contraction due to falling prices, with over 53.64% of coal companies reporting losses as of April 2025, the highest level since 2018 [1][20][22] - Electricity demand is expected to rebound with the onset of summer, as average daily power generation showed a year-on-year increase of 3.32% in mid-May 2025, despite a 14.37% decline in hydroelectric power generation [1][59] - A strong expectation for a rebound in thermal coal prices is anticipated as demand increases with rising temperatures, potentially peaking during the July-August consumption high [2][59] Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal supply has contracted significantly, with April 2025 coal production down 11.64% month-on-month, primarily due to reductions in output from regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [20][59] - The decline in coal imports, which fell by 16.4% year-on-year in April 2025, is expected to support the domestic market [24][26] - The overall supply reduction is greater than the demand decrease, indicating that coal prices are currently in an oversold state [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include industry leaders with stable performance such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as growth-oriented companies like Jinkong Coal and Shanmei International [3] - The report highlights the defensive value of leading companies with low debt and high cash flow, which are expected to benefit from market confidence and potential asset injections [2][3] Price Outlook - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound due to seasonal demand increases and supply tightening, with a peak anticipated during the summer consumption high [2][59] - Coking coal prices are projected to stabilize, supported by a bottoming out of thermal coal prices and potential increases in export demand due to easing trade tensions [2][60]