1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Event-driven factors combined with valuation repair have led to subtle changes in the supply - demand structure. Coking coal and coke will maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. The recent rebound is not based on the commodity's fundamental narrative, and the game mainly focuses on two aspects. First, from a driving perspective, the core of market trading lies in concerns about the coal mine supply guarantee management in 2026. Second, from a valuation perspective, black commodities were previously at low prices. Against the backdrop of obvious rotation in the commodity sector, funds are more inclined towards undervalued varieties. The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is still accumulating. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal and coke are expected to maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended that investors try to go long on dips, and after the options are listed, they can mainly use strategies such as selling 1000P or protective call building [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Domestic supply: The operation of domestic coal mines has gradually returned to normal levels. Coal mines are selling their products smoothly, and some coal mines had all their pre - Spring Festival production contracted. The increase in pit - mouth quotes and the scope of price increases are gradually expanding. According to Mysteel's statistics on the weekly production and sales of 523 coking coal mines, the daily output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 7.9 tons week - on - week. In terms of imports, the downstream winter storage window has fully opened this week. The booming domestic coal market has led to better sales at ports, with a significant increase in trading volume compared to the previous period, and the inventory in the supervision area is gradually being depleted [3]. 3.2 Demand - Coke has started the first round of price hikes. The number of routine blast furnace overhauls increased this week, and the molten iron output decreased slightly by 1.49 tons to 228.01 tons. After the overhauls end, the molten iron output is expected to rise again, and the rigid demand for raw materials remains supported [6]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 128.4 tons week - on - week, with a significant increase in the data at the mine level, up 17.7 tons week - on - week. Some coking and steel enterprises have started winter storage replenishment, and the inventory is beginning to shift downstream. The inventory in the independent coking sector increased by 61.2 tons compared to last week, and the inventory in the steel mill coking sector increased by 4.5 tons week - on - week [6]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 862.95 (+36.57); FW clean coal 439.21 (+19.19); Independent coking plant daily average 63.4 (-0.1); Steel mill coking enterprise daily average 46.7 (-0.2) | | | Demand | Molten iron output 228.01 (-1.49) | Molten iron output 228.01 (-1.49) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +128.4; Mine raw coal - 21.45; Mine clean coal - 27.63; Independent coking - 4.3; Independent coking +61.2; Steel mill +4.6; Steel mill coking +4.5; Port +16.0; Port +17.8; Port of entry +6.6 | MS total inventory +16.3 | | Profit | Commodity coal 463 (+18) | Average profit of coking enterprises 10 (-13) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolia 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1232 | Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] 3.5 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply**: There are data on the weekly and monthly production of coking coal, including the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the operation rate of 523 sample mines. There are also data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. - **Inventory**: Data on coking coal inventory at pit - mouth, ports, coking plants, and steel mills are provided, including inventory volume and available days [24][26][29][34]. 3.6 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Data on the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills are presented, including the capacity utilization rate of different - scale coking plants and the daily output of coking plants and steel mills [37][43][45]. - **Inventory**: Data on coke inventory at coking plants and steel mills are provided, including total inventory, inventory by region, and available days [49][50][58]. - **Demand**: Data on coke demand in terms of pig iron production and the supply - demand difference are provided [61]. - **Profit**: Data on coke profit, including the disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, are provided [64]. 3.7 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: Information on the futures prices, trading volume, and open interest of coking coal 2605, coking coal 2609, coke 2605, and coke 2609 is provided, as well as the price trends of coking coal and coke indices [67][70]. - **Spot**: Information on the spot prices of coking coal and coke, including the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the ex - factory prices of different types of coke, is provided [78]. - **Spread**: Information on the monthly spreads of coking coal and coke is provided [73][76]. - **Basis**: Information on the basis of coking coal and coke is provided [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to event - driven factors and valuation repair, along with subtle changes in the supply - demand structure, coal and coke will maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern. The recent rebound is not based on the commodity's fundamental narrative, and the market game focuses on two aspects. Firstly, there are concerns about coal mine supply - guarantee management in 2026, and the potential withdrawal of some coal mines from supply - guarantee measures. Secondly, black commodities were previously at low prices, and funds are more interested in undervalued varieties. With the expected tightening of domestic supply and issues in Mongolian coal imports, the contradiction between industry and capital behavior needs further attention. Before the Spring Festival, coal and coke will likely continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended that investors try to go long on dips and, after the option is listed, use strategies such as selling 1000P or covered call strategies [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly View Supply - Domestic coal supply has recovered rapidly as previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coal mines this week was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons. Mongolian coal's year - end volume rush has ended, and high port inventories are expected to affect subsequent customs clearance. Mongolian coal customs clearance is expected to decline in January [3] Demand - This week, the hot metal output increased by 20,700 tons to 2.295 million tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for raw material procurement has increased compared to the previous period, which supports coking coal prices. However, the resumption rhythm of downstream steel mill blast furnaces still needs to be observed. It is expected that the hot metal output will remain in a low - level oscillation in the first ten days of January and will rebound significantly in the middle and late ten days [4] Inventory - This week, the total inventory of coking coal in all links increased by 144,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly in independent coking plants and ports. The inventory in independent coking plants increased by 192,000 tons week - on - week, and the port coking coal inventory increased by 170,000 tons compared to last week [5] Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal was 8.2638 billion tons (+208.2 million tons), FW clean coal was 4.2002 billion tons (+97.6 million tons), the daily average of independent coking plants was 636,000 tons (+80,000 tons), and the daily average of steel mill coking enterprises was 469,000 tons (+10,000 tons) [8] - **Demand**: The hot metal output was 2.295 million tons (+20,700 tons) [8] - **Inventory**: The MS total inventory increased by 597,000 tons, the mine raw coal inventory decreased by 34,000 tons, the mine clean coal inventory increased by 104,300 tons, the independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, the independent coking plant inventory increased by 192,000 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 17,000 tons, the steel mill coking plant inventory decreased by 45,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the port inventory increased by 170,000 tons while the port inventory decreased by 109,000 tons [8] - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 445 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton) [8] - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - dry quenched coke in ports was 1,700 yuan/ton [8] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly data shows the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the开工 rate of 523 sample mines. The monthly data shows the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. The data on Mongolian coal customs clearance shows the customs clearance volume of different ports [10][12][14] Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 28,900 tons week - on - week to 2.1926 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 48,400 tons week - on - week to 1.5336 million tons [25] - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.998 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [27] - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of coking plants is presented, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days by different production capacities [30][32][34] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory data of steel mills is provided, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days [36] 02 Coke Fundamental Data Supply - **Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, and by different production capacities and regions, are shown [39] - **Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises is presented [41] - **Output - Coking Plant**: The daily output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises is shown [47] - **Output - Steel Mill**: The daily output of 247 steel enterprises is presented [49] Inventory - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of coking plants, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, is shown [51] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory data of steel mills, including total inventory, inventory by region, inventory available days by region, and the total inventory of the full - sample, is presented [52][54][59] Demand - Pig Iron - The supply - demand difference of coke, daily supply, daily demand, and the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises are shown [63] Profit - The profit data of coke, including the disk profit of coking per ton and the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton, is presented [66] 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [69] Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [74] Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [77][79] Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are shown [83] Coal and Coke Basis - The basis data of coking coal and coke are presented [86]