当下，全球经济格局深度调整、新质生产力加速崛起，商品市场正迎来前所未有的变革。 薛鹤翔认为，与传统周期中"黄金—工业金属—原油"的轮动路径相比，本轮轮动呈现出显著的独特性。 驱动源上，传统轮动由地产、基建等传统周期主导，而本轮轮动则由AI、新能源等新兴需求驱动；品 种结构上，铂、锡、电力等趋势新星加入"战局"，碳酸锂"反内卷"，镍、橡胶、棉花"低位掘金"，轮动 更加细分、多元；节奏把控上，保证金高频调整与跨市场联动加剧，轮动周期从年度级压缩至季度级， 对投资者的交易节奏提出了更高要求。 极端行情应对：风控纠偏下的市场新生态 2026年年初，贵金属市场上演了惊心动魄的一幕，白银价格单日暴跌超35%，创46年来纪录，芝商所一 周内两度调整贵金属期货保证金。对此，薛鹤翔表示，此次保证金调整呈现出"高频动态、精准差异 化"的显著特征，本质是极端行情下的风控纠偏。 市场基调之变：从政策托底到基本面兑现 "当前商品市场最核心的特征，是'万物通胀'背景下的结构分化与轮动加速。"薛鹤翔开门见山地表示， 站在百年维度，通胀回升、中美经济共振以及AI应用的蓬勃兴起，共同推动商品市场发生深刻变革。 曾经单一的品种行情逐渐退出舞台， ...

Core Insights - The commodity market is transitioning from a "broad increase" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][3] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy (crude oil, coal) has become a defining feature of the current market [3][4] - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a unique combination of financial and strategic attributes, driven by structural narratives rather than traditional economic growth [7][12] Market Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship for green metals is tight due to rigid supply and explosive demand, while traditional energy faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [3][4] - The global supply chain is shifting from "efficiency-first" globalization to "security-first" regionalization, impacting commodity pricing and availability [4][20] - Recent price movements, such as a 30% increase in LME copper prices in January 2026, reflect the new characteristics of the market [4] Historical Context - The current commodity cycle shows similarities to the 1970s, with a focus on the restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions [11][12] - The previous commodity supercycle was driven by China's industrialization and urbanization, while the current cycle is influenced by AI infrastructure and green transitions [7][12] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on the fundamental differences among commodities to identify structural opportunities [4][13] - Key commodities to watch include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [15][24] - The chemical sector is anticipated to see growth due to domestic policy changes and supply optimization, with specific attention to products with strong export expectations [14] Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue exhibiting significant differentiation, with traditional rotation patterns being disrupted [13][24] - The focus on strategic resources like gold, silver, copper, and tin is likely to lead to a scenario where these commodities experience upward price pressure while others may lag [24]

Group 1 - The current commodity market is transitioning from a "general rise" to "structural differentiation," with funds shifting towards undervalued sectors with solid fundamentals [1][2] - Precious metals are leading the market, followed by industrial metals, while energy and chemical sectors are starting to rise from low levels [1][2] - The historical divergence between "green metals" (copper, lithium, nickel) and traditional energy sources (crude oil, coal) is becoming evident, with the former experiencing tight supply and explosive demand, while the latter faces relaxed supply and slowing demand [2][3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is more akin to a recovery phase rather than overheating, driven by demand growth from the AI technology revolution rather than traditional economic overheating [3] - The supply chain is shifting from a focus on efficiency to a focus on security, with resource country policies becoming key price drivers [3][4] - The recent price fluctuations in gold and silver are seen as corrections rather than reversals of long-term trends, with the long-term upward logic for these metals remaining intact [3][4] Group 3 - The current commodity cycle is characterized by a paradigm shift, with the strong performance of precious and strategic metals driven by structural narratives rather than robust global economic growth [5][6] - The traditional sequence of commodity price movements is being disrupted, with the new sequence being gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → electric infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [10][11] - The market is witnessing significant differentiation, with precious and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance while traditional economic growth-related sectors remain weak [10][11] Group 4 - The current commodity market is in a critical transition phase, similar to the 1970s, but with new variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [9][10] - The price resilience of commodities is stronger, but the volatility is also more extreme due to the combination of historical inflation and new demand drivers like AI and green transition [9][10] - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the new market dynamics and structural changes rather than relying on historical patterns [10][11]

Core Insights - The current commodity cycle is similar to the 1970s, characterized by a restructuring of the global monetary system and ongoing supply chain disruptions, with precious metals playing a crucial role [1] - The current inflation exhibits structural characteristics, differing from the persistent high inflation of the 1970s, although both periods experience high volatility in inflation rates [1] - The current commodity rotation is in a long-cycle mid-to-late transition phase, marked by structural, phased, and policy-driven characteristics [1] Group 1: Commodity Cycle Characteristics - The current commodity cycle can be compared to the 1970s' "stagflation + geopolitical conflict," but with added variables such as energy transition and weakening dollar credit [2] - Both cycles are in the downturn phase of the Kondratiev wave, with commodity prices influenced by "supply shocks + monetary easing," leading to a wave-like price movement [2] - New demand drivers like AI infrastructure and green transition have replaced traditional real estate infrastructure in the current cycle [2] Group 2: Market Differentiation - The most notable feature of the current commodity rotation is increasing differentiation, stemming from differences in sector logic and variety logic [3] - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals are showing strong performance, while oil prices are under pressure from trade wars and inflation uncertainties, indicating potential for rotation and upward movement [3] - The traditional rotation chain of gold → copper → oil → agricultural products has been disrupted, with a new chain emerging: gold → new energy metals (copper/silver/lithium) → power infrastructure (aluminum/zinc) → strategic minor metals (tungsten/tin/cobalt) [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The chemical sector is expected to perform well by 2026 due to domestic "anti-involution" policies, capacity exits from Europe, Japan, and South Korea, and the transmission of crude oil costs [4] - Key signals to watch in the short term include the ongoing impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices and the rotation opportunities in black metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and soft commodities following the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies [4] - Key commodities for the next rotation phase include zinc, wheat, iron ore, and platinum, which are recommended for focused attention [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The commodity market is currently influenced more by supply-side risks than demand-side drivers, indicating that a supercycle is not present [1][4] - The energy sector is experiencing relative oversupply, while non-ferrous and precious metals still hold investment value for 2026 [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Dynamics**: The recent significant pullback in commodity prices, especially in precious metals, is attributed to market adjustments to new Federal Reserve policies and cooling market sentiment [2] - **Gold Price Influences**: Gold prices are under pressure from tightening monetary policy, easing inflation, and expectations of central bank gold sales. The market has already reacted to these factors, leading to a reasonable pullback in gold prices, although overall support levels remain high [6][7] - **Copper and Oil Supply/Demand**: Copper supply is constrained due to insufficient new capacity, supporting prices in the long term, but previous high prices have already been reflected. Oil supply is gradually improving from previous oversupply conditions, suggesting potential price recovery [8][9] - **OPEC+ Supply Uncertainty**: OPEC+ has seen a decline in actual production increase rates, with geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply from countries like Russia and Iran. This uncertainty is expected to persist throughout 2026 [9][10] Additional Important Content - **Natural Gas Market Trends**: The U.S. natural gas market is expected to see a price increase due to rising LNG exports and reduced associated gas supply. European markets are facing low inventory levels, necessitating increased LNG imports [3][15] - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: Investors are advised to focus on timing and specific commodities rather than simply following trends. The anticipated copper shortage from 2025 to 2026 contrasts with the gradual narrowing of oil oversupply [5][8] - **Future Oil Price Projections**: Oil prices are expected to stabilize between $60 and $70 per barrel in the first half of 2026, with potential for a rise to $70-$80 in the latter half as supply-demand dynamics improve [13] Conclusion - The current commodity market is characterized by significant volatility, with specific sectors like precious metals and energy showing distinct trends. Investors should remain vigilant about timing and market signals to capitalize on emerging opportunities while navigating the inherent risks associated with geopolitical factors and supply chain dynamics.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to event - driven factors and valuation repair, along with subtle changes in the supply - demand structure, coal and coke will maintain a high - level oscillatory pattern. The recent rebound is not based on the commodity's fundamental narrative, and the market game focuses on two aspects. Firstly, there are concerns about coal mine supply - guarantee management in 2026, and the potential withdrawal of some coal mines from supply - guarantee measures. Secondly, black commodities were previously at low prices, and funds are more interested in undervalued varieties. With the expected tightening of domestic supply and issues in Mongolian coal imports, the contradiction between industry and capital behavior needs further attention. Before the Spring Festival, coal and coke will likely continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended that investors try to go long on dips and, after the option is listed, use strategies such as selling 1000P or covered call strategies [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coal and Coke Weekly View Supply - Domestic coal supply has recovered rapidly as previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coal mines this week was 1.899 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,000 tons. Mongolian coal's year - end volume rush has ended, and high port inventories are expected to affect subsequent customs clearance. Mongolian coal customs clearance is expected to decline in January [3] Demand - This week, the hot metal output increased by 20,700 tons to 2.295 million tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for raw material procurement has increased compared to the previous period, which supports coking coal prices. However, the resumption rhythm of downstream steel mill blast furnaces still needs to be observed. It is expected that the hot metal output will remain in a low - level oscillation in the first ten days of January and will rebound significantly in the middle and late ten days [4] Inventory - This week, the total inventory of coking coal in all links increased by 144,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory increase was mainly in independent coking plants and ports. The inventory in independent coking plants increased by 192,000 tons week - on - week, and the port coking coal inventory increased by 170,000 tons compared to last week [5] Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal was 8.2638 billion tons (+208.2 million tons), FW clean coal was 4.2002 billion tons (+97.6 million tons), the daily average of independent coking plants was 636,000 tons (+80,000 tons), and the daily average of steel mill coking enterprises was 469,000 tons (+10,000 tons) [8] - **Demand**: The hot metal output was 2.295 million tons (+20,700 tons) [8] - **Inventory**: The MS total inventory increased by 597,000 tons, the mine raw coal inventory decreased by 34,000 tons, the mine clean coal inventory increased by 104,300 tons, the independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, the independent coking plant inventory increased by 192,000 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 17,000 tons, the steel mill coking plant inventory decreased by 45,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the port inventory increased by 170,000 tons while the port inventory decreased by 109,000 tons [8] - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 445 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 23 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton) [8] - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan was 1,210 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - dry quenched coke in ports was 1,700 yuan/ton [8] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly data shows the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the开工 rate of 523 sample mines. The monthly data shows the production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. The data on Mongolian coal customs clearance shows the customs clearance volume of different ports [10][12][14] Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 28,900 tons week - on - week to 2.1926 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 48,400 tons week - on - week to 1.5336 million tons [25] - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.998 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [27] - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of coking plants is presented, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days by different production capacities [30][32][34] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory data of steel mills is provided, including the total inventory, inventory by region, and inventory available days [36] 02 Coke Fundamental Data Supply - **Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, and by different production capacities and regions, are shown [39] - **Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises is presented [41] - **Output - Coking Plant**: The daily output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises is shown [47] - **Output - Steel Mill**: The daily output of 247 steel enterprises is presented [49] Inventory - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of coking plants, including full - sample and 230 independent coking plants, is shown [51] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory data of steel mills, including total inventory, inventory by region, inventory available days by region, and the total inventory of the full - sample, is presented [52][54][59] Demand - Pig Iron - The supply - demand difference of coke, daily supply, daily demand, and the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises are shown [63] Profit - The profit data of coke, including the disk profit of coking per ton and the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton, is presented [66] 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices Coking Coal Futures - The futures market data of coking coal 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [69] Coke Futures - The futures market data of coke 2605 and 2609, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are shown [74] Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - The monthly spread data of coking coal and coke in different years are presented [77][79] Coal and Coke Spot - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are shown [83] Coal and Coke Basis - The basis data of coking coal and coke are presented [86]