美国国债有望连续第二天上涨，随后美国经济数据和美联储官员的讲话可能会进一步强化进一步降息的 理由。美国10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至4.18%，接近1月中旬以来的最低水平;而对政策更为敏感的 美国2年期国债收益率下跌1个基点，呈现所谓的"牛市趋平(bull-flattening,长端收益率比短端下得更 快)"走势。货币市场目前预计美联储今年降息3次(每次降息25个基点)的概率约为25%，而一周前市场预 期降息2次。 周一，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈塞特表示，未来几个月美国的就业数据可能会下降。瑞穗国际 有限公司策略师Evelyne Gomez-Liechti表示："美国国债牛市趋于平缓的势头可能会在本周非农就业报 告公布前保持在目前的水平附近。" 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克和达拉斯联储主席洛根都被视为货币鹰派，她们今年也将参与利率政策投票， 将于周二晚些时候发表讲话。美国财政部将在本周的第一阶段发行580亿美元的三年期新债券，该阶段 还将发行新的十年期和三十年期债券。 这些消息和讲话可能会影响市场对美联储下一步利率政策的预期。互换交易表明，政策制定者将在下个 月的会议上维持利率不变，将利率维持在3.5%至3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Senate election is a critical test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration, impacting future Japan-U.S. trade negotiations and economic policies [1][3] Group 1: Election Context - The election commenced on July 20, with voting ending at 19:00 Beijing time, and results expected by early July 21 [1] - A total of 125 seats are up for grabs, with the ruling coalition needing at least 50 seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][3] - Current polls indicate Ishiba's cabinet support has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical 30% threshold [3] Group 2: Political Implications - If the ruling coalition loses its majority, Ishiba's government may resign, potentially halting crucial Japan-U.S. trade talks [2][8] - The rise of the far-right "Reform Party" reflects a shift in political dynamics, with predictions of winning 10 to 15 seats [4][8] - A "twisted parliament" scenario could emerge, complicating legislative processes and leading to a political deadlock [4][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the market has priced in the likelihood of the ruling coalition losing its majority, anticipating a complex political landscape [5][7] - If the ruling coalition performs better than expected, a "bull flattening" in the market may occur; conversely, a poor performance could lead to a steepening of the yield curve [7][8] Group 4: Economic Policies - Nomura warns that a loss of majority could accelerate tax increases and disrupt ongoing trade negotiations [8][9] - Deutsche Bank views the election as a referendum on "financial repression" policies, with voters demanding tax cuts and cash subsidies [10][11] - The public's growing discontent with negative real interest rates and inflation is becoming a central issue in the election [13][15]