根据美国财政部数据，8月28日收盘，2年期国债到期收益率降至3.59%，创下自2024年9月27日以来的 最低水平，甚至低于2025年4月市场动荡期间的最低点。 收益率曲线是理解当前动态的关键。2023年，曲线深度倒挂，2年-10年利差达纪录负值，反映市场预期 短期利率因美联储加息而上升，但长期利率因经济前景黯淡而保持低位。这与2021年曲线开始扁平化一 致，当时市场已预见疫情后遗症和供给冲击的负面影响。 2024年8月底，曲线开始解除倒挂，2年-10年利差从负值转为正值1个基点，随后在美联储9月首次降息 50基点后扩大至25基点。这一过程并非异常，而是典型"牛市陡峭化"。在牛市陡峭化中，短期收益率下 降更快，导致曲线从前端陡峭，而长端收益率相对稳定或微升。这与"熊市陡峭化"（长端收益率大幅上 升）形成对比。 为什么会出现牛市陡峭化？首先，美联储降息信号翻转了风险回报参数。倒挂期，投资者偏好长端国债 避险；降息启动后，短期国债潜力更大，因为美联储一旦开始降息，往往难以停止。历史周期显示，每 次美联储首降后，短期收益率加速下行，长端则因经济不确定性而持稳。2024年9月后，长端收益率短 暂回升，但这并非"拒绝" ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Senate election is a critical test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration, impacting future Japan-U.S. trade negotiations and economic policies [1][3] Group 1: Election Context - The election commenced on July 20, with voting ending at 19:00 Beijing time, and results expected by early July 21 [1] - A total of 125 seats are up for grabs, with the ruling coalition needing at least 50 seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][3] - Current polls indicate Ishiba's cabinet support has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical 30% threshold [3] Group 2: Political Implications - If the ruling coalition loses its majority, Ishiba's government may resign, potentially halting crucial Japan-U.S. trade talks [2][8] - The rise of the far-right "Reform Party" reflects a shift in political dynamics, with predictions of winning 10 to 15 seats [4][8] - A "twisted parliament" scenario could emerge, complicating legislative processes and leading to a political deadlock [4][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the market has priced in the likelihood of the ruling coalition losing its majority, anticipating a complex political landscape [5][7] - If the ruling coalition performs better than expected, a "bull flattening" in the market may occur; conversely, a poor performance could lead to a steepening of the yield curve [7][8] Group 4: Economic Policies - Nomura warns that a loss of majority could accelerate tax increases and disrupt ongoing trade negotiations [8][9] - Deutsche Bank views the election as a referendum on "financial repression" policies, with voters demanding tax cuts and cash subsidies [10][11] - The public's growing discontent with negative real interest rates and inflation is becoming a central issue in the election [13][15]