以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍&段明珠 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 段明珠 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 这是最糟糕的时候，也是最需要冷静审视的时刻。 才两三天的时间， 金银崩完，美股崩，随后加密货币跟着崩 ， 周一开盘大A也会迎来"疾风骤雨" 。 梳理下顺序。 2026年1月30日，COMEX黄金跌破了5000美元/盎司，最大跌幅一度达到16%；白银的调整更为猛 烈，COMEX白银从高点121.785美元/盎司，最低下探至74美元/盎司，最大跌幅高达39%。疯狂之 后，金银终究还是迎来了暴跌。 同日，美股也迎来一次腥风血雨，三大股指集体收跌，大型科技股也普遍下跌。 而1月31日，比特币一度暴跌10%，跌破8万美元整数关口。这可看做一次风险预演，意味着周一资 本市场不会太平静。 为何金银突然暴跌？这是见顶还是倒车接人？美股（ 科技股 ）为何也跟着崩？对大A有何影响？普 通投资者该怎么做？本篇将一一分析。 金银为何会突然暴跌？ 导火索就是美联储降息预期出现了大反转 。 1月29日晚间，市场传出凯 ...

这一过程清晰地暴露了信用货币体系的根本性弊端。现代法币的价值高度依赖于发行国政府的财政纪律 与长期责任感。货币当局必须在刺激经济以实现充分就业、与维持币值稳定以保障物价平稳这两个核心 目标之间，进行极其艰难的权衡。理想的路径是追求经济的长期健康发展，避免为短期政治或经济博弈 而过度透支信用。 2026年1月29日国际黄金价格上演"过山车"行情，创历史新高后盘中暴跌近6%（伦敦金现一度失守5100 美元/盎司关口），纽约4月黄金期价最终下跌37美元收于每盎司5410.8美元，跌幅0.68%。尽管经历了 剧烈波动，2026年，国际金价累计上涨仍然已经接近30%。这种涨势并非偶然的商品周期波动，而是全 球资本在不确定性加剧环境下，进行的一次深刻的价值重估。 其背后最核心的驱动力，是投资者对以国家主权信用为背书的法定货币体系日益增长的担忧。 从东京到华盛顿，政策制定者们正面临增长与债务的艰难平衡，而市场则用真金白银的买入，表达了 对"纸信用"可能被稀释的集体忧虑。这预示着，一场关于财富储存形式的深刻转变或许已经拉开序幕。 日元困境：G7最弱货币的信用透支样本 在全球主要发达经济体中，日元已成为信用货币体系脆弱性的一个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in 2026, debt issues will be a global challenge, and there are three main ways to address this: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction) [1] - AI and gold are expected to benefit from these pathways, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] - The A-share market is anticipated to continue a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a significant change in corporate profit structures despite weaknesses in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] Group 2 - Non-financial companies in the A-share market have stabilized their net asset return on equity (ROE) over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries increasing to 38% [1] - Companies with overseas revenue have seen their overseas revenue proportion rise to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive overall ROE recovery in the A-share market [1] - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension, suggesting potential for valuation improvement if profits recover [1] Group 3 - Investment direction should focus on industries with supply constraints and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other areas of interest include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for spring rallies, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unique phenomenon of "AI tech stocks and resource commodities (gold, copper) rising simultaneously" in 2025 reflects a common pricing strategy among major economies addressing the core issue of debt. The resolution of debt relies on technological advancements to enhance total factor productivity (AI path) or through inflation to dilute debt (resource path), representing two sides of the same macroeconomic logic [1][8]. Group 1: Changes in Profit Structure - The profit structure of China's A-share market has fundamentally changed, evolving from a previous "80/20" model to a current "60% traditional domestic demand + 40% emerging industries and overseas" model. The overseas segment shows higher profit quality than domestic operations, becoming a core support for market resilience [1][9]. - The overseas revenue share of A-share companies has exceeded 20% and continues to rise, with overseas business margins significantly higher than domestic ones, indicating that overall profitability will not experience systemic decline even if domestic profits remain under pressure [9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - A-share ROE is expected to show a clearer upward trend, transitioning from a "fast bull" to a healthier "slow bull" market due to valuation constraints, enhanced regulatory oversight, and the entry of long-term incremental funds [1][16]. - The period from December to January is identified as a critical "buy the dip" window, with expectations of a "spring rally" in February to March, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments [4][22]. Group 3: Global Market Review - The performance of major markets, including the US, Germany, China, Japan, and South Korea, has shown a strong correlation in the rise of technology and resource sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [5][6]. - The simultaneous rise of technology and resource assets, particularly gold and AI stocks, reflects a dual pricing strategy addressing the global debt issue, with both sectors benefiting from the same macroeconomic conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Supply Constraints and Industry Trends - Supply constraints are becoming a dominant variable in various industries, including AI computing power, semiconductors, and resource sectors, indicating that as long as supply cannot be rapidly expanded, industry trends are unlikely to change [20][21]. - The copper price is expected to replicate the upward trajectory of gold, driven by historically low global inventories and anticipated recovery in manufacturing due to fiscal and monetary easing [3][14][15]. Group 5: Funding Sources and Market Dynamics - Three relatively certain sources of incremental funds are identified: long-term funds represented by state-owned enterprises, insurance funds with increasing equity allocation, and high-net-worth individuals reallocating from low-yield fixed income to equities [18][19]. - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" rather than a rapid bull market, with traditional macro indicators losing significance while industry trends, global demand, and supply constraints become more critical pricing factors [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there are three methods for debt reduction without substantial defaults: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction) [1] - AI and gold are expected to ultimately benefit from the aforementioned debt reduction pathways [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of comprehensive social security and how it benefits individuals in the long run, contrasting it with the skepticism some people have towards it [1][19][20] - It highlights the financial support from the government behind social security and medical insurance, emphasizing that these systems are not merely burdens on individuals [4][6] - The article argues that companies that cannot cover basic costs, including social security contributions, should not exist, suggesting that competitive businesses should not exploit employees by avoiding these responsibilities [9][11] Group 2 - The piece mentions that comprehensive social security can lead to an increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is seen as a positive outcome [22] - It addresses the misconception that comprehensive social security will lead to job losses, asserting that technological advancements, such as AI, will naturally change the job landscape [15][18] - The article suggests that the future of social security and welfare benefits is promising, with the potential for improved living standards for the general population [19][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Senate election is a critical test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration, impacting future Japan-U.S. trade negotiations and economic policies [1][3] Group 1: Election Context - The election commenced on July 20, with voting ending at 19:00 Beijing time, and results expected by early July 21 [1] - A total of 125 seats are up for grabs, with the ruling coalition needing at least 50 seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][3] - Current polls indicate Ishiba's cabinet support has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical 30% threshold [3] Group 2: Political Implications - If the ruling coalition loses its majority, Ishiba's government may resign, potentially halting crucial Japan-U.S. trade talks [2][8] - The rise of the far-right "Reform Party" reflects a shift in political dynamics, with predictions of winning 10 to 15 seats [4][8] - A "twisted parliament" scenario could emerge, complicating legislative processes and leading to a political deadlock [4][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the market has priced in the likelihood of the ruling coalition losing its majority, anticipating a complex political landscape [5][7] - If the ruling coalition performs better than expected, a "bull flattening" in the market may occur; conversely, a poor performance could lead to a steepening of the yield curve [7][8] Group 4: Economic Policies - Nomura warns that a loss of majority could accelerate tax increases and disrupt ongoing trade negotiations [8][9] - Deutsche Bank views the election as a referendum on "financial repression" policies, with voters demanding tax cuts and cash subsidies [10][11] - The public's growing discontent with negative real interest rates and inflation is becoming a central issue in the election [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful Act" signed by President Trump represents a significant shift in U.S. fiscal policy, emphasizing tax cuts and spending reductions while exacerbating wealth inequality and increasing national debt [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Overview - The act includes a $4 trillion tax cut over the next decade and a $1.5 trillion reduction in spending, alongside a $5 trillion increase in the federal debt ceiling, marking a substantial acceleration of previous fiscal reforms [1][9]. - The passage of the act was contentious, with a narrow vote of 51-50 in the Senate and 218-214 in the House, highlighting deep political divisions [5][6]. Group 2: Political Implications - The act reflects a direct clash between the interests of Republican and Democratic voter bases, with Republicans favoring tax cuts and deregulation, while Democrats advocate for increased taxes on the wealthy and expanded social welfare [6][7]. - Trump's push for the act is seen as a strategy to solidify his political agenda and maintain control over the Republican Party amidst significant opposition [7][8]. Group 3: Economic Consequences - The act is expected to create a $2.5 trillion deficit gap, which will necessitate increased borrowing, further exacerbating the national debt, projected to exceed $41 trillion [9][10]. - The increase in debt is likely to lead to higher borrowing costs and could undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The act does not provide a viable solution to the existing debt crisis, leaving three potential paths—fiscal tightening, economic growth, or debt default—largely unfeasible in the current political climate [13][14]. - The most probable outcome may involve "inflationary debt," where the government allows inflation to erode the real value of its debt, potentially leading to long-term economic instability [15][16].

Core Points - The "Great and Beautiful Act" signed by President Trump on July 4, 2025, represents a significant legislative shift, extending previous tax cuts and spending controls while drastically reducing social welfare and government spending initiated during the Biden administration [1][2] - The act includes a $4 trillion tax cut over the next decade, a minimum $1.5 trillion spending cut, and a one-time increase of the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, which is unprecedented [1][6] - The act is seen as a redistribution of wealth, benefiting the wealthy while exacerbating the plight of the poor, reflecting a deep political divide between the Republican and Democratic parties [1][5] Legislative Process - The act passed through a contentious political process, with a tie-breaking vote from the Vice President, showcasing the intense partisan divide [2][3] - The final vote in the House was narrowly won, indicating significant opposition from Democrats and some Republicans concerned about the implications for national debt [2][3] Political Implications - Trump's push for the act aligns with his "America First" agenda, aiming to fulfill promises to his voter base by reducing taxes and supporting traditional industries [3][4] - The act's provisions, such as cutting clean energy subsidies and increasing defense spending, cater to Republican supporters and solidify political support in key states [4][5] Economic Consequences - The act is projected to create a $2.5 trillion deficit over the next decade, which will necessitate increased borrowing and exacerbate the national debt crisis [6][8] - The increase in the debt ceiling from approximately $36 trillion to $41 trillion is expected to add over $3.4 trillion in new debt, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [6][8] Future Outlook - The act does not address the underlying issues of income inequality, fiscal deficits, and social security gaps, potentially worsening these problems in the long run [5][7] - The U.S. may face a prolonged period of high inflation as a means to manage debt, which could undermine the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [10][14] - The reliance on inflation to dilute debt burdens poses risks to long-term economic stability and could lead to increased financial volatility [12][14]

Group 1 - The article discusses the likelihood of a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) scenario regarding tariff negotiations, suggesting that the probability of further tariff escalation is low and that a delay in negotiations is more likely [1][2][5] - It highlights the current market's optimistic pricing, which may not align with the underlying economic fundamentals, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy's performance in the upcoming year [1][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of employment data and its implications for interest rate expectations, noting that the recent job growth figures may not be as strong as they appear due to significant contributions from government employment [6][7][9] Group 2 - The article outlines the current U.S. employment situation, indicating that while the June non-farm payrolls showed a gain of 147,000 jobs, a substantial portion came from government sectors, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [7][9][11] - It discusses the potential economic implications of Trump's policies, suggesting that they may lead to increased fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures, particularly with the anticipated combination of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing [16][17][18] - The article presents an investment strategy in light of the expected economic conditions, recommending a diversified approach with a focus on strong equities, gold, and virtual assets while being cautious of potential market corrections [20][21][28]