【环球时报记者 丁雅栀 环球时报驻美国特约记者 冯亚仁】"政府停摆会使美国陷入衰退吗？"美国广播 公司日前以此为题报道称，一些经济学家认为，如果这一僵局长期持续下去，美国可能会面临经济危 机。当地时间10月26日，美国政府关门进入第26天，"停摆"对经济的多方影响正在进一步凸显。受多方 因素影响，总部位于柏林的欧洲信用评级机构范围评级公司（Scope Ratings）日前下调美国主权信用评 级。 报道称，目前约有75万名被停薪留职的政府工作人员已经感到停摆带来的压力，他们拿不到薪水，家庭 预算也愈发紧张。据英国广播公司24日报道，被迫休假的联邦雇员开始在食品银行排队领取免费餐食， 他们表示"已经入不敷出了"。 "我们正逐渐逼近一个临界点，届时政府停摆的影响将变得更为显著。"安永会计师事务所首席经济学家 格雷戈里·达科向美国广播公司说，长期停摆可能引发"恶性循环"，美国经济前景因此变得不明朗。 穆迪分析公司首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示："如果停摆延续至感恩节到圣诞节之间的假日购物季，经济 衰退将成为切实威胁，因为这会打击本就脆弱的消费者、企业和投资者信心。" 因政府停摆而推迟数日发布的美国9月消费者价格指数（CP ...

美国政府停摆已经过去20天，国会却依旧毫无进展，社交平台上，一句"让美国再次伟大"的讽刺段子被网友反复转发，"伟大"到连CPI都发布不了。 第九次预算投票，仍旧以失败告终，51票赞成、44票反对，距离60票门槛差了整整9票，民众焦虑，市场震荡，政府却仿佛陷入了无休止的拉锯战。 而现实中，联邦雇员开始兼职送外卖，失业率节节攀升， 这已经是第九次投票失败了，10月18日，美国参议院就临时拨款法案再次表决，结果依旧令人沮丧：51票赞成、44票反对，离60票的通过门槛差了9票。 有人调侃，这场投票像"组队打副本，队友全在划水"，议员们在辩论中互相指责，却始终找不到共同语言，问题出在哪儿，归根结底是两党对预算方案的立 场南辕北辙。 共和党坚持只同意7周的短期拨款，理由是避免政府长期"无节制支出"，但他们又坚决反对恢复此前被削减的医疗补贴，尤其是对低收入人群至关重要的医 疗补助计划。 西弗吉尼亚一座以联邦机构为主要就业来源的小城，因为3000多名联邦员工无薪可领，整个城市的经济活动几近停摆，生活还在继续，但政府仿佛已经"关 机"。 两党就像两个吵架的小孩，都不愿意先让一步，而这场"谁先眨眼"的游戏，已经从政治角力演变成全 ...

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 15,452.23 tons of silver as of October 9, an increase of 36.7 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On October 9, the spot silver price closed at $49.15 per ounce, up 0.58%, with an intraday high of $51.22 and a low of $48.41 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown continues with no end in sight, as a short-term funding bill failed for the seventh time [3][4] - The next opportunity for a vote to restart the government is on October 14, with military personnel set to miss their pay on October 15 [4] - The political deadlock deepens as the Senate failed to advance the Republican short-term funding bill, indicating a potential for prolonged and intensified political maneuvering [5]

要知道，那些平日里按时发布的经济数据，可不是简单的数字罗列，它们更像是经济健康状况的 "晴雨表"，有着不可替 代的公共价值。 就拿月度就业报告来说，它通过非农就业人口增长、失业率、平均时薪等核心指标。 每一个数据的变动，都可能预示着就业市场是繁荣还是面临困境，是企业在积极扩张招人，还是陷入了裁员收缩的艰难 境地。 而每周公布的初请失业金人数数据，更是扮演着重要的角色，能迅速敏锐地捕捉到就业市场动态的细微变化，哪怕只是 一丝裁员潮兴起的迹象，或者经济有滑向衰退的苗头，它都能第一时间反馈出来。 政府停摆，就如同抽走了经济运行大厦的重要支柱，它直接切断了政策制定者和投资者们赖以生存的经济数据 "生命 线"。 劳工统计局（BLS）是美国政府停摆期间业务将暂停的关键政府机构之一。美国劳工部周一表示，若发生政府部分停 摆，其下属统计机构将暂停发布经济数据，其中包括备受关注的9月月度就业报告，非农就业数据为报告中的一个重要项 目。这份就业报告对美联储官员、企业及家庭的决策至关重要。 华盛顿的政治僵局，正让全球市场陷入一场前所未有的"信息饥荒"。当劳工统计局在10月3日暂停发布关键的就业报告 时，这不仅仅是一个数据的延迟，更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the United States has led to the suspension of military salaries, highlighting the fragility of American households and the impact of political gridlock on financial stability [1][6][11] Group 1: Economic Impact - Approximately 1.3 million active-duty military personnel and over 800,000 reservists are affected by the salary suspension due to budgetary issues [3][6] - The U.S. military budget exceeds $900 billion annually, accounting for about 3.5% of GDP, yet the inability to disburse salaries reveals significant cash flow vulnerabilities [3][5] - The household savings rate in the U.S. has dropped to just over 3%, compared to China's consistent rate above 30%, indicating a lack of financial resilience among American families [5] Group 2: Political Context - The current budget impasse is part of a long history of government shutdowns, with the U.S. experiencing 20 shutdowns since 1976, but this instance is notable for its direct impact on military personnel [6][8] - Political dynamics, particularly the influence of key figures like Donald Trump, play a crucial role in the ongoing budget negotiations and the potential resolution of the shutdown [8][10] Group 3: Social Implications - A significant portion of American households, approximately 40%, cannot cover an emergency expense of $400, reflecting broader societal financial insecurity [8][11] - The reliance on credit and family support for military personnel stationed abroad raises concerns about their financial stability when domestic salaries are halted [10][11] - The systemic vulnerabilities in American society are exposed by the combination of high consumption, low savings, and political stalemate, suggesting a precarious situation for many families [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Senate election is a critical test for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's administration, impacting future Japan-U.S. trade negotiations and economic policies [1][3] Group 1: Election Context - The election commenced on July 20, with voting ending at 19:00 Beijing time, and results expected by early July 21 [1] - A total of 125 seats are up for grabs, with the ruling coalition needing at least 50 seats to maintain a majority in the Senate [1][3] - Current polls indicate Ishiba's cabinet support has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical 30% threshold [3] Group 2: Political Implications - If the ruling coalition loses its majority, Ishiba's government may resign, potentially halting crucial Japan-U.S. trade talks [2][8] - The rise of the far-right "Reform Party" reflects a shift in political dynamics, with predictions of winning 10 to 15 seats [4][8] - A "twisted parliament" scenario could emerge, complicating legislative processes and leading to a political deadlock [4][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the market has priced in the likelihood of the ruling coalition losing its majority, anticipating a complex political landscape [5][7] - If the ruling coalition performs better than expected, a "bull flattening" in the market may occur; conversely, a poor performance could lead to a steepening of the yield curve [7][8] Group 4: Economic Policies - Nomura warns that a loss of majority could accelerate tax increases and disrupt ongoing trade negotiations [8][9] - Deutsche Bank views the election as a referendum on "financial repression" policies, with voters demanding tax cuts and cash subsidies [10][11] - The public's growing discontent with negative real interest rates and inflation is becoming a central issue in the election [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, urges political parties in Kosovo to break the political deadlock and form a government [1] Group 1 - The call for action comes amid ongoing political instability in Kosovo, which has hindered governance and decision-making processes [1] - Borrell emphasizes the importance of unity among political factions to ensure effective governance and address pressing issues facing the country [1] - The EU's involvement highlights the significance of Kosovo's political situation in the broader context of European stability and integration [1]