Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Wynn Macau's Q3 property EBITDA is $308 million, benefiting from an increase in VIP win rate to 4.26% compared to 2.97% in the previous quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The adjusted property EBITDA, assuming a theoretical VIP win rate of 3.4%, would be $285 million, reflecting a quarterly growth of 7% and an annual growth of 9%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The market share of gaming revenue increased by 1.1 percentage points to 13.1% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 2: Management Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the Macau gaming industry and the company's business prospects, highlighting strong performance in the high-end market, which supports a double-digit year-on-year growth in gaming volume for October [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs assumes a market share of 12.6% and anticipates additional costs due to more events at year-end, projecting Q4 property EBITDA to be $280 million, with an annual EBITDA forecast of $1.1 billion [1] - The firm has adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 4% to an increase of 1%, with a slight decrease in target price from HKD 7.5 to HKD 7.4, maintaining a "Neutral" rating due to expected market share decline in October and higher costs in Q4 limiting EBITDA and stock price upside [1]

Core Insights - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Wynn Macau (01128) achieved a 17% year-on-year increase in property EBITDA for Q3, reaching 2.405 billion HKD, which is 2% higher than market expectations but 3% lower than the bank's own forecast [1] - The property EBITDA margin expanded by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 30.8% [1] - The target price is set at 9 HKD, maintaining an "outperform" rating, with the belief that the company has robust cash flow generation due to the absence of significant expansionary capital expenditures, which supports its valuation [1] Financial Performance - The contribution from the VIP gaming room's win rate was a positive 179 million HKD to EBITDA, which largely offset the additional operating expenses of 195 million HKD caused by Typhoon Haikui [1] - The company has maintained its full-year capital expenditure guidance unchanged [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Wynn Macau's Q3 property EBITDA increased by 17% year-on-year to HKD 2.405 billion, which is 2% higher than market expectations but 3% lower than the bank's own forecast [1] - The property EBITDA margin expanded by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 30.8% [1] - The high win rate in the VIP room contributed HKD 179 million positively to EBITDA, offsetting the additional operational expenses of HKD 195 million caused by Typhoon Haikui [1] Group 2 - The bank maintains a "Outperform" rating for Wynn Macau with a target price of HKD 9, citing the company's robust cash flow generation as a supportive factor for its valuation [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a slowdown in Macau's total gaming revenue growth to 8% to 10% in November, while maintaining a short-term positive outlook on Wynn Macau [2]