Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing an unusual situation where the expected seasonal demand during winter is not materializing, leading to downward pressure on prices. Group 1: Consumer Demand - In southern markets, consumer purchasing volume for pork has significantly decreased despite the season being ideal for producing cured meats like sausages and preserved pork [3] - Current prices for pork cuts are lower than last year, with prices for pork belly at 9 yuan per jin and leg meat at 8 yuan per jin, down by 3 to 4 yuan per jin compared to the same period last year, yet sales volume remains below last year's levels [5] Group 2: Seasonal Factors - The slow decline in temperatures in southern regions has resulted in lower-than-expected demand for cured meats, impacting overall consumption [7] - The timing of the upcoming Spring Festival, which is relatively late next year, has delayed some concentrated purchasing demand, further limiting support for pork prices [7] Group 3: Supply Side Pressure - The pork supply remains high due to previous years of profitable pig farming, leading to an expansion in industry capacity. As of the end of Q3 2025, the national pig stock is at 437 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [10] - The average daily slaughter volume for monitored enterprises in December is 211,200 heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%, indicating that supply remains ample due to high levels of breeding sows and increased production efforts as the year ends [12]

Core Insights - The national average price for external three-yuan pigs is reported at various prices across different provinces, with the highest being 14.8 yuan/kg in Jinan, Shandong [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 14,135.00 yuan/ton for the main pig futures contract, reflecting a 1.07% increase [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes stabilizing pig production through capacity adjustments and policy implementation [2] Price Trends - The average weight of external three-yuan pigs for the week of July 17 is 123.49 kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 kg week-on-week, but a year-on-year increase of 0.11% [2] - The futures market indicates a daily trading volume of 14,065 contracts, with prices fluctuating between 14,060.00 yuan/ton and 14,185.00 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Leading enterprises are reportedly holding back on sales, resulting in a slight increase in the average weight of pigs being sold [3] - Supply is expected to recover in mid-July, but there are indications of reduced slaughter volumes during the off-season, leading to a gradual decline in pig prices [3] - The anticipated increase in demand towards the end of August may provide some support for prices, although risks of sustained pressure on prices remain [3]