生猪专家 2026 年行情展望电话会 20260223 摘要 2023 年猪价微亏，2024 年和 2025 年盈利较好，但 2026 年预计全年 均价在 12.3-12.45 元/公斤，自繁自养基本保本，外购仔猪育肥可能微 亏，整体盈利空间有限。 受前期利润影响，母猪去产能动力不足，虽政策要求调减，但企业减产 不积极。预计 2026 年或减产，但幅度不大，速度较慢，规模化企业抗 风险能力强。 短期内猪价仍有下行空间，受春节后季节性下跌和前期体重偏重影响， 上半年或跌破 11 元/公斤。二次育肥和冻品入库支撑力度不足。 仔猪市场总体盈利，采购需求较高，商品猪亏损未必立即导致补栏减少。 若仔猪价格上涨至 456 元左右，将支撑母猪存栏，不利于快速去产能。 2026 年生猪养殖行业或将僵持，政策要求减产，但仔猪利润支撑减产 动力不足。母猪减产趋势缓慢，自繁自养成本在 11.23-12 元/公斤，外 购仔猪育肥成本在 12-13 元/公斤。 2026 年商品猪出栏量同比增加约 4.8%，供应仍处高位，预计全年均价 低于 2025 年。冬季疫情影响有限，但 2026 年五六月份商品猪出栏量 或环比下滑。 二次育肥主要 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 01 月 29 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，28 日生猪主力 2603 合约小幅高开后冲高回落震荡走跌，尾盘收 阴，最高 11340 元/吨，最低 11230 元/吨，收盘报 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, both supply and demand are decreasing month - on - month, and the spot price will fluctuate. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of second - fattening pigs is still high compared to the same period last year, the current epidemic situation is sporadically occurring seasonally without continuous spread, and after the Spring Festival, it will enter the off - season of consumption. Therefore, the 03/05 contracts will mainly fluctuate weakly [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,600 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,600 yuan/ton, up 1.09% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,201 lots to 339,236 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high compared to the same period last year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In the second half of the month, the enthusiasm of breeders to slaughter increased, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7] - **Demand Side**: Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. After the demand for curing and sausage - making ended, the demand has decreased significantly. Terminal consumer demand is average, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. On January 22nd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 178,800 heads, an increase of 500 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and a decrease of 19,000 heads month - on - month [7] 3.2 Industry News - From January 8th - 14th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, an increase of 62 yuan/head from the previous week [10] - As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.15 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then slaughtering was 12.24 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.49 yuan/kg week - on - week [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - As of January 15th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was +25.8 yuan/head, an increase of 25.8 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was - 100.5 yuan/head, an increase of 29.3 yuan/head week - on - week [20] - In the week ending January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85kg, an increase of 0.31kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a decrease of 1.33kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and an increase of 5.89kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 4.79% [20]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be range - bound as consumption recovers and supply remains relatively abundant. The 03 futures contract is likely to trend weakly due to expected slight increase in supply, high second - fattening pressure, seasonal sporadic outbreaks of the epidemic, and the post - holiday consumption off - season [7] Content Summaries by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 19th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then fluctuated downwards after a short rise, closing in the red. The highest price was 12,140 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,400 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,705 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 278 lots to 356,946 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 19th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.30 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: The enthusiasm for second - fattening before New Year's Day increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is currently higher than the same period last year, waiting to be gradually slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. The northern breeding side is slaughtering as normal, while the southern side is controlling the volume to raise prices, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7] - **Demand Side**: Second - fattening is mainly on the sidelines. The demand for curing and sausage - making is near the end, terminal consumer consumption has increased slightly, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, with the operating rate and slaughter volume slightly increasing. On January 19th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,500, down 1,000 from the previous day, up 2,600 week - on - week, and down 16,000 month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 15th, the average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, up 62 yuan/head from the previous week [8] 3. Data Overview - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg week - on - week. The expected cost of fattening with purchased piglets was 12.24 yuan/kg, up 0.49 yuan/kg week - on - week. The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was +25.8 yuan/head, up 25.8 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 100.5 yuan/head, up 29.3 yuan/head week - on - week [16] - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85 kg, up 0.31 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week increase of 0.24%), down 1.33 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%), and up 5.89 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 4.79%) [16]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has increased, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens has slightly risen. In January, the monthly slaughter of breeding enterprises may continue to increase slightly, and the current slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable. On the demand side, second - round fattening has increased, and there is a rolling restocking demand. Post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, and there is still room for cured meat and sausage demand. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises are slowly increasing after the festival. Overall, on the spot market, post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, the overall volume is still high, supply is relatively loose, and the spot price fluctuates. In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, and the pressure of second - round fattening is still higher than the same period last year, which continues to put pressure on the market, but the previous epidemic in the north has continued to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread and remains sporadically seasonal. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest price was 11,925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,740 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,785 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,459 lots to 363,111 lots. [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.55 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] - **Supply - demand Analysis**: As mentioned in the core view, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is slowly recovering. On January 7, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,100 heads, an increase of 1,300 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 9,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,000 heads month - on - month. [9] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information, in the week of January 4, the overall slaughter proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. Due to the seasonal sporadic occurrence of the epidemic, the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period, and currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread. [10][11] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of January 4, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head from the previous week. [18] - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week. [18] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66kg, a decrease of 1.04kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%). [18]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report on the daily situation of the pig industry dated December 24, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the 23rd, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upward, closing with a positive line. The highest was 11,435 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,335 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,415 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,251 lots to 344,624 lots [7] - On the 23rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.50 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] Supply - Side Analysis - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The proportion of second - fattening and hog retention was high in October, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival [8] - According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%, and the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [8] Demand - Side Analysis - Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling restocking demand in December [8] - With the continuous drop in temperature, the demand for curing and sausage - making has increased successively, and the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise. The orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high, but after the Winter Solstice stocking, the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On December 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 195,400 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 4,500 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 21,000 heads month - on - month [8] Policy - Side Analysis - China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pork by - products from the EU, but the impact is very limited due to the extremely low proportion compared with domestic consumption [8] Overall Market Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing. After the Winter Solstice stocking, demand has weakened, and the spot market is expected to fluctuate [8] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, but the relatively concentrated second - fattening and hog retention in October, combined with the continuous release of production capacity, form double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent epidemic situation in the north is more severe year - on - year, increasing the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations [8] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets is 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week [13] - As of December 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 119.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 238.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 26.2 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising is 12.09 yuan/kg, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg for slaughter is 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [13] - As of the week of December 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 130.18 kg, an increase of 0.55 kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.42%, an increase of 1.37 kg from last month, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a decrease of 0.50 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 0.38% [13]

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing an unusual situation where the expected seasonal demand during winter is not materializing, leading to downward pressure on prices. Group 1: Consumer Demand - In southern markets, consumer purchasing volume for pork has significantly decreased despite the season being ideal for producing cured meats like sausages and preserved pork [3] - Current prices for pork cuts are lower than last year, with prices for pork belly at 9 yuan per jin and leg meat at 8 yuan per jin, down by 3 to 4 yuan per jin compared to the same period last year, yet sales volume remains below last year's levels [5] Group 2: Seasonal Factors - The slow decline in temperatures in southern regions has resulted in lower-than-expected demand for cured meats, impacting overall consumption [7] - The timing of the upcoming Spring Festival, which is relatively late next year, has delayed some concentrated purchasing demand, further limiting support for pork prices [7] Group 3: Supply Side Pressure - The pork supply remains high due to previous years of profitable pig farming, leading to an expansion in industry capacity. As of the end of Q3 2025, the national pig stock is at 437 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [10] - The average daily slaughter volume for monitored enterprises in December is 211,200 heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%, indicating that supply remains ample due to high levels of breeding sows and increased production efforts as the year ends [12]

Core Viewpoint - The pork market is experiencing a seasonal downturn despite entering the winter sales peak, leading to pressure on pork prices due to various factors affecting both demand and supply [1]. Group 1: Demand Factors - In southern China, the demand for pork products, particularly for traditional items like cured meat and sausages, has decreased significantly, with consumers purchasing less than in previous years [3]. - Current prices for pork cuts such as belly meat are around 9 yuan per jin, and leg meat is about 8 yuan per jin, which is 3-4 yuan lower per jin compared to the same period last year, yet sales volumes remain below last year's levels [5]. - The delayed timing of the upcoming Spring Festival has also postponed some concentrated purchasing demand, limiting support for pork prices from the consumer side [7]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The supply side remains under pressure due to an expansion in industry capacity following two years of high profitability in pig farming. As of the end of Q3 2025, the national pig inventory reached 437 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [7]. - The average daily slaughter volume of monitored sample enterprises was 211,200 heads in December, reflecting a modest year-on-year increase of 0.37%, indicating that supply remains ample due to high levels of breeding sows [9]. - The breeding sow inventory fell below 40 million heads for the first time in 17 months but still exceeds the normal holding level of 39 million heads, contributing to the current supply surplus [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is boosted in the short - term due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, leading to a short - term small rebound in spot prices. However, in the medium and long term, the supply - demand situation remains loose, and the prices are expected to be weak. The futures contracts are at a discount to the spot prices and are likely to continue to be weak due to the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and the expected出栏 of second - fattened pigs [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 28th, the main live pig contract 2509 opened slightly higher, then rose and fell, fluctuating downward and closing in the red. The highest price was 13,605 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,510 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,560 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,209 lots to 164,599 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 28th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 14.51 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The current price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, and the pen utilization rate is relatively high. The enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased, and most are in a wait - and - see state. With the rising temperature, the terminal demand has weakened. But in the short - term, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday stocking, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On May 28th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 151,200 heads, an increase of 3,800 heads from the previous day and 10,000 heads from a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May was 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual出栏 volume in April. At the end of the month, the breeding side was more active in出栏. With the successive出栏 of previously second - fattened pigs, the出栏 weight remained high [9] 3.2. Industry News - From May 19th - 23rd, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 627 yuan/head, down 3 yuan/head from the previous week [12] - As of May 23rd, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 138 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised by purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/head [12][13] 3.3. Data Overview - From May 19th - 23rd, the national average出栏 weight was 129.38 kg, a decrease of 0.33 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week decline of 0.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.91% [22] - From May 19th - 23rd, the slaughter volume of the slaughtering sample was 1.5964 million heads, a decrease of 500 from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 144,347 heads, a decrease of 3,194 heads from the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 2.16% [22] - As of May 23rd, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 13.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of fattening pigs by purchasing piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125kg and then出栏 was 15.06 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [22]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: May 13, 2025 - Industry: Pig Industry [1][2] Core Viewpoint - The supply of pigs is increasing, demand is weakening, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, leading to a weak spot price. Futures contracts are trading at a discount to the spot, and are expected to trade weakly due to the off - season demand and the expected supply from secondary fattening [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and trended downwards, closing at 13,870 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 506 lots to 151,384 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs across the country was 14.77 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Demand Side**: The current fattening cost is low and the breeding profit is good, but the pen utilization rate is relatively high. Secondary fattening replenishment is sporadic and continuous, not concentrated. After the festival, terminal demand weakened, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises declined. On May 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,200 heads, down 100 from the previous day and 4,500 from a week ago [7] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May is 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual slaughter volume in April. The post - festival slaughter of the breeding side is normal, and with the continuous slaughter of previously second - fattened pigs, the slaughter weight increased slightly [7] 2. Industry News - From April 30th week's data, the weekly slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.3223 million heads; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 147,408 heads, an increase of 7,798 heads from the previous week, with a daily average increase of 5.59% - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of April 30th was 649 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [10] 3. Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of April 30th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 191 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 21.5 yuan/head; the average profit per pig from purchased piglets was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [19] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: In the week of April 30th, the national average slaughter weight was 129.22 kg, an increase of 0.28 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [19]