玉米市场供需平衡

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玉米:下方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:48
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The corn supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged. Although the enthusiasm of traders in the producing areas to sell goods has increased and they have offered discounts, the actual sales are average, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is also general. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises remains high, and the enterprise prices are slightly reduced. The CBOT corn has fluctuated, and the wheat price has risen while the import corn auction has stopped. The corn starch inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak. The future price of the corn futures contract may have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the trend of the spot price [1][3][6]. 3. Section Summaries Corn Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of May 23, the national average corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. The selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was 98%, 4% faster than the same period last year [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of May 23, the futures market declined. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm of feed enterprises was average. The main contract (C2507) had a high of 2,339 yuan/ton, a low of 2,307 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2,327 yuan/ton. The basis of the main C2507 contract strengthened from - 25 yuan/ton on May 16 to - 17 yuan/ton on May 23 [2]. Corn Market Outlook - **CBOT Corn**: In the week of May 23, CBOT corn futures rose 3.61%. Rain in the US Midwest delayed sowing, raising concerns about a possible decline in the total planting area. Trump's suggestion to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1 led to a decline in CBOT corn on Friday [3]. - **Wheat Price and Corn Auction**: As of the week of May 23, the wheat price rose, and the import corn auction stopped. The成交 rate of corn procurement was 100.00%, up 29.50% from last week; the成交 rate of corn sales was 81.65%, down 13.93% from last week; the成交 rate of two - way corn trading was 76.07%, down 7.96% from last week [4]. - **Corn Starch Inventory**: As of the week of May 22, the total corn starch inventory in the main producing areas was 1,025,700 tons, up 1.29% from the previous period and 7.96% from the same period last year. Downstream demand was weak [6]. - **Market Trend**: From the perspective of supply - demand balance, the tight supply - demand pattern of corn remains unchanged. The downside space of the futures price may be limited, and attention should be paid to the trend of the spot price [6].