Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. Although the low port inventory supports prices to some extent, downstream demand is still weak. The improvement in deep - processing profitability has not significantly boosted demand, and feed consumption is mainly rigid. Despite the decrease in imported grains, wheat substitution has effectively filled the supply gap. However, as the wheat price approaches the policy bottom and the new corn harvest ends, the substitution effect of wheat is expected to weaken, and some demand may return to corn. The market is in a critical game period with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short term, the downward trend of corn has not ended, and it may continue to test the support level of 2,100 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the rhythm of new grain listing. If the current decline fully releases in time and space, the driving logic of the market may change in the future. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of new grain listing and the recovery of downstream demand [6][34][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of October, the corn index price continued to decline to around the previous low of 2,129 yuan/ton. After breaking this support level in mid - October, it rebounded to around 2,170 yuan/ton and then started a new downward trend. It is expected to continue to decline and may even experience an over - decline, falling below 2,100 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply of corn in North China has increased, but due to the high - opening and low - going price under the expectation of a bumper harvest, the price remains low. Meanwhile, the state reserve and central grain reserve are continuously rotating out grain sources, and imported substitute resources are continuously arriving at ports, increasing the market supply. The domestic downstream corn - using enterprises have sufficient inventories, and the low breeding profit and wheat substitution have suppressed the replenishment demand of feed enterprises for corn, resulting in relatively light market trading. Overall, the corn index may continue to decline [8]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows a Contango structure, with the 01 contract at a discount to the 05 contract, and the 05 contract at a discount to the 09 contract [9]. 3.2 Market行情 Analysis - **Supply - side factors**: - **Supply - demand balance and cost**: The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". Based on a survey in October 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 282 million tons, an increase of 11.13 million tons compared to 2024. The supply is abundant due to factors such as the continuous rotation of state - owned grain reserves and the arrival of imported substitute resources. The planting cost in Northeast China has decreased, and the estimated port collection price is about 2,000 yuan/ton, indicating that there is still room for the corn futures price to fall [11][13]. - **Import volume**: In September 2025, the import volume of major grains decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of corn was 930,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72%. The decrease in imports reflects the compression of import demand due to domestic inventory, consumption, and policy regulation [15]. - **Wheat substitution**: In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4% month - on - month, and the wheat market supply - demand pattern is loose, with prices under pressure. Wheat has a significant price advantage over corn, and it is expected that the substitution of wheat for corn in the feed sector will be between 20 million and 30 million tons in 2025. As the wheat price bottoms out and the corn price continues to fall, the substitution effect of wheat is expected to decrease, and the diverted demand may return to the corn market [22]. - **Demand - side factors**: - **Feed and breeding**: In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has been promoting the reduction of the inventory of reproductive sows since July. However, as of September 2025, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, and the inventory of reproductive sows was still as high as 40.35 million. The pig price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the industry is expected to further reduce production capacity. Currently, the feed consumption of corn is mainly rigid, with limited short - term growth potential [24][25]. - **Deep - processing**: Deep - processing enterprises in the north and south have generally turned profitable after the significant price decline of new - season corn. For example, the deep - processing starch profit in Heilongjiang is about 50 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [26]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the corn inventories at northern and southern ports have dropped to medium - low levels in recent years. The northern port inventory, as a distribution center for Northeast grain, has decreased, possibly due to the depletion of grassroots grain reserves and the reluctance of traders to sell. The southern port inventory, as an indicator of demand in the sales area, has also decreased, reflecting less grain arrival and stable提货 by downstream enterprises. The overall decline in port inventory weakens the buffer effect of the market, making prices more sensitive to supply and demand changes [33]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The overall supply of the new - season corn market remains loose. Although the low port inventory supports prices, downstream demand is weak. The wheat substitution effect is expected to weaken, and the market is in a critical game period. In the short term, the downward trend of corn may continue to test the 2,100 yuan/ton support level. Pay attention to the new grain listing rhythm. If the decline fully releases, the market driving logic may change in the future. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of new grain listing and the recovery of downstream demand [6][34][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The new - season corn maintains a supply - loose pattern. Although low port inventory supports prices, downstream demand lacks growth, the deep - processing industry is in continuous loss, and feed consumption is mainly rigid. Wheat substitution has effectively supplemented the market supply, but its substitution effect is expected to weaken as wheat prices approach the policy bottom and new - season corn is listed. Currently, long and short factors are intertwined, and the market is in a key game stage. In the short term, the downward trend of corn has not reversed, and it is expected to continue to test the 2100 yuan/ton support level. The listing rhythm of new - season corn should be focused on. If the decline is fully released in time and space, the market driving logic may gradually switch later. Attention should be paid to the progress of new - grain listing and the recovery of downstream demand [5][41] Summary by Directory 1. Corn Market Structure - As of the end of September, the corn index price dropped below the 2150 yuan/ton support level. It is expected to continue to decline and may even over - decline to below 2100 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply in North China has increased, and the price has been low. The rotation of state - owned grain reserves and the arrival of imported substitutes have increased market supply. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories, and the demand for corn replenishment from feed enterprises is suppressed. Overall, the corn index may decline further [7] - The overall structure presents a Contango structure, with 01 contract at a discount to 05 contract and 05 contract at a discount to 09 contract [8] 2. Market行情 Analysis 2.1 Corn Market Supply is Loose, Laying the Foundation for Low Prices - **Supply - demand balance and cost decline**: The new - season corn market shows "slightly increased supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 29,616 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. Since July 1, the import corn auction has supplemented the market, and wheat substitution has squeezed the corn consumption space. The planting cost in Northeast China has decreased, and the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, close to the current futures price [11] - **Reduction in import demand**: In August 2025, the import of major grains decreased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import of corn was 88 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 78%. The decrease in imports is related to China's policies to promote corn self - sufficiency and adjust the feed structure [15] - **Decrease in wheat substitution**: In 2025, the wheat output increased by about 4% month - on - month. Due to weak downstream demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the substitution is expected to be between 2000 - 3000 tons. As the price difference between wheat and corn narrows, the substitution will gradually decrease [18] 2.2 Downstream Demand Remains Rigid but without Increment, with Limited Boosting Effect - **Pig price and capacity reduction**: In the feed - breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of August 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, and the sow inventory was 40.48 million, still higher than the normal level. The pig price is below the cost, and the industry may further reduce capacity [22] - **Loss in deep - processing industry**: Corn consumption is mainly in feed - breeding and deep - processing. The deep - processing industry is facing continuous losses, and the profit pressure restricts the increase in the start - up rate and raw - material procurement demand [24] 2.3 Low Port Inventory Increases Price Elasticity - As of September 19, the corn inventory in northern and southern ports has decreased to a medium - low level in recent years. The decrease in northern port inventory may be due to the exhaustion of grass - roots surplus grain and the hoarding of traders, while the decrease in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrival volume and stable downstream picking - up. Low port inventory weakens the buffer effect, making price fluctuations more sensitive to supply and demand changes [37] 3. Market Outlook - The new - season corn maintains a supply - loose pattern. Low port inventory supports prices, but downstream demand lacks growth. Although the import of grains has decreased, wheat substitution still supplements the market. As wheat prices approach the policy bottom and new - season corn is listed, the substitution effect is expected to weaken. The market is in a key game stage. In the short term, the downward trend of corn has not reversed, and it is expected to test the 2100 yuan/ton support level. Attention should be paid to the listing rhythm of new - season corn and the recovery of downstream demand [41]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The corn supply - demand tight pattern remains unchanged. Although the enthusiasm of traders in the producing areas to sell goods has increased and they have offered discounts, the actual sales are average, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is also general. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises remains high, and the enterprise prices are slightly reduced. The CBOT corn has fluctuated, and the wheat price has risen while the import corn auction has stopped. The corn starch inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak. The future price of the corn futures contract may have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the trend of the spot price [1][3][6]. 3. Section Summaries Corn Market Review - **Spot Market**: As of May 23, the national average corn price was 2,376.08 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. The selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was 98%, 4% faster than the same period last year [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of May 23, the futures market declined. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm of feed enterprises was average. The main contract (C2507) had a high of 2,339 yuan/ton, a low of 2,307 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2,327 yuan/ton. The basis of the main C2507 contract strengthened from - 25 yuan/ton on May 16 to - 17 yuan/ton on May 23 [2]. Corn Market Outlook - **CBOT Corn**: In the week of May 23, CBOT corn futures rose 3.61%. Rain in the US Midwest delayed sowing, raising concerns about a possible decline in the total planting area. Trump's suggestion to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1 led to a decline in CBOT corn on Friday [3]. - **Wheat Price and Corn Auction**: As of the week of May 23, the wheat price rose, and the import corn auction stopped. The成交 rate of corn procurement was 100.00%, up 29.50% from last week; the成交 rate of corn sales was 81.65%, down 13.93% from last week; the成交 rate of two - way corn trading was 76.07%, down 7.96% from last week [4]. - **Corn Starch Inventory**: As of the week of May 22, the total corn starch inventory in the main producing areas was 1,025,700 tons, up 1.29% from the previous period and 7.96% from the same period last year. Downstream demand was weak [6]. - **Market Trend**: From the perspective of supply - demand balance, the tight supply - demand pattern of corn remains unchanged. The downside space of the futures price may be limited, and attention should be paid to the trend of the spot price [6].