1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report holds an optimistic view on corn prices in the first half of the year, but the upside potential is limited. It suggests grain - using enterprises to purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, and traders to buy low and sell high [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The corn main 2603 contract briefly pulled back after reaching a recent high of 2314. The spot price first rose and then fell. The flat - barge price of corn in Bayuquan ranged from 2330 yuan/ton to 2350 yuan/ton and then to 2335 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port was around 2450 yuan/ton. The corn basis fluctuated, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The starch main 2603 contract fluctuated up and down. The starch price was stable, with the price of Weifang Jinyu corn starch at 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened in a fluctuating manner [4] 3.2 New Grain Sales - New grain sales accelerated again after a brief slowdown. As of January 29, the total national grain sales progress was 60%, 2% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the progress in the Northeast was 60%, 4% faster; in North China, it was 54%, 1% slower; in the Northwest, it was 72%, the same as last year. With two weeks to go before the Spring Festival, the pre - holiday grain sales progress may approach 70%, and the remaining grain after the festival will be limited. CNGC's public bidding continued, and as of January 29, 1.03 million tons had been put on the market, with 823,000 tons sold, showing active trading [4] 3.3 Inventory Status - As of January 23, the corn inventory at northern ports was 1.631 million tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 706,000 tons, rising again. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 341,000 tons, falling again month - on - month; the foreign trade corn inventory was 164,000 tons, also falling month - on - month. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of January 30, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 4.405 million tons, continuing to rise month - on - month but still lower than the same period last year. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.93 days, rising again month - on - month. As the holiday approaches, the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises may be nearly completed [5] 3.4 Substitution and Import - The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, and substitution was not feasible for the time being. In December, China's corn imports rebounded significantly again, with a month - on - month increase of 44.1% and a year - on - year increase of 135.3%. The cumulative corn imports in 2025 were 2.647 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.8%. Since last October, corn imports have rebounded significantly and may continue to increase in the future to adjust the domestic corn supply and demand [5] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The U.S. corn in the external market fluctuated at a low level. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January supply and demand report increased the U.S. corn production to a record high due to increased yield per unit and harvested area, resulting in a nearly 10% increase in the ending inventory and a 44% year - on - year increase. The South American corn production was not adjusted, and the global corn ending inventory was also increased by 4.2%, but it was still 1.29% lower than last year [5] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand was strong, while deep - processing demand was insufficient. The pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head. The reduction of pig production capacity achieved certain results. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, continuing to decrease; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, showing the first month - on - month decrease in recent years and only a slight year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms also continued to decrease in December, but the production and sales of piglets increased, indicating the downstream's willingness to replenish the inventory. The inventory of commercial pigs also showed the first month - on - month decrease in recent years. There was a phenomenon of holding back pigs in the market. In the poultry sector, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding was slightly profitable again. In December, the sales volume of chicken seedlings rebounded, and the elimination of old chickens continued to increase to a recent high. The inventory of laying hens in December may have decreased slightly again. The breeding profit may drag down the future reduction of livestock and poultry production capacity, and the feed demand may remain strong. The demand of deep - processing enterprises was insufficient. The processing profit of starch processing enterprises was locally in the red, and the operating rate was insufficient. As of January 30, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 59.99%, slightly falling month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.028 million tons, continuing to decline. The alcohol processing enterprises continued to lose money, and the operating rate was 57.43%, remaining the same month - on - month. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises was strong, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was stable [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily Report" and is issued by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on August 8, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The southern port's grain inventory is being depleted slowly, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the warehouse receipt pressure is high. Although the supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, the time for the 09 contract is limited. Due to the harvest pressure of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the 11 and 01 contracts of corn are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6] Group 4: Price and Market Data Spot Prices - Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Harbin price in Heilongjiang Province is 2195 yuan/ton, unchanged. Among them, the price in Hebei Province decreased by 10 yuan [5] - Corn starch spot prices are 2750 yuan/ton in Jilin Province and 2434 yuan/ton in Henan Province, both unchanged [5] - Wheat spot prices are 2435 yuan/ton in Anhui Province, down 1 yuan, and 2434 yuan/ton in Jiangsu Province, unchanged [5] Futures Prices - The closing price of the corn main contract is 2267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract is 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] International Data - The closing price of US corn is 402.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2231.87 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported US corn is 198.13 yuan/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.18 [5] Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490 [5] Inventory Data - North port corn inventory is 210.6 tons, Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 88.2 tons, and foreign - trade corn inventory is 0.7 tons. Northeast deep - processing corn inventory is 215.9 tons, and North China deep - processing corn inventory is 114.9 tons [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The remaining grain is in short supply. Northeast grain has the demand for external transportation, and the volumes of grain collection and shipment at the north port have declined. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decrease, and the estimated port collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area has no obvious change, the new - season corn is growing well, and the supply of imported grains is expected to decrease this year due to continuous policy restrictions [5] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting the feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The price difference between wheat and corn is at a low level, feed mills are increasing their wheat purchases, the wheat substitution ratio is increasing, and they are maintaining a cautious attitude towards corn purchases. The deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, and the deep - processing demand is shrinking [5] Inventory - The north port inventory has been depleted to a low level, the southern port grain inventory is being depleted slowly, the feed enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the deep - processing corn inventory has declined this week [5]