投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 玉米系数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/8/19 | 指标 | | 8月18日 | 涨跌 | 升贴水 | 对主力基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锦州港平舱价 | 2310 | -10 | 0 | 47 | | | 鲅鱼圈港平舱价 | 2310 | 0 | 0 | 47 | | | 蛇口港市场价 | 2430 | 0 | | | | | 黑龙江省-哈尔滨 | 2180 | 0 | -195 | 112 | | | 黑龙江省-绥化 | 2180 | 0 | -195 | 112 | | | 吉林省-长春 | 2240 | -10 | -130 | 107 | | | 辽宁省-沈阳 | 2280 | 0 | -80 | 97 | | | 辽宁省-铁岭 | 2260 | 0 | -80 | 77 | | 玉米现货 | 内蒙古-通辽 | 2220 | 0 | -100 | 57 | | | 内蒙古-赤峰 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily Report" and is issued by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on August 8, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The southern port's grain inventory is being depleted slowly, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the warehouse receipt pressure is high. Although the supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, the time for the 09 contract is limited. Due to the harvest pressure of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the 11 and 01 contracts of corn are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6] Group 4: Price and Market Data Spot Prices - Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Harbin price in Heilongjiang Province is 2195 yuan/ton, unchanged. Among them, the price in Hebei Province decreased by 10 yuan [5] - Corn starch spot prices are 2750 yuan/ton in Jilin Province and 2434 yuan/ton in Henan Province, both unchanged [5] - Wheat spot prices are 2435 yuan/ton in Anhui Province, down 1 yuan, and 2434 yuan/ton in Jiangsu Province, unchanged [5] Futures Prices - The closing price of the corn main contract is 2267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract is 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] International Data - The closing price of US corn is 402.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2231.87 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported US corn is 198.13 yuan/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.18 [5] Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490 [5] Inventory Data - North port corn inventory is 210.6 tons, Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 88.2 tons, and foreign - trade corn inventory is 0.7 tons. Northeast deep - processing corn inventory is 215.9 tons, and North China deep - processing corn inventory is 114.9 tons [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The remaining grain is in short supply. Northeast grain has the demand for external transportation, and the volumes of grain collection and shipment at the north port have declined. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decrease, and the estimated port collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area has no obvious change, the new - season corn is growing well, and the supply of imported grains is expected to decrease this year due to continuous policy restrictions [5] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting the feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The price difference between wheat and corn is at a low level, feed mills are increasing their wheat purchases, the wheat substitution ratio is increasing, and they are maintaining a cautious attitude towards corn purchases. The deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, and the deep - processing demand is shrinking [5] Inventory - The north port inventory has been depleted to a low level, the southern port grain inventory is being depleted slowly, the feed enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the deep - processing corn inventory has declined this week [5]