研究所 供需偏宽松 玉米连续调整 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年12月19日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国内玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 玉米淀粉市场动态 4 国际玉米市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货震荡偏弱，期货下跌为主，主力切换到2603合约，港口基差上扬，1-3月差走强，而3-5月差走弱，2603承 受了较大压力。基本面来看，本周黑龙江及山东产区深加工企业门前到车增加，一方面是雪后放晴带来的卖压回升，另一方面 也与持粮主体看涨心态减弱有关；基层农户售粮继续推进，但东北售粮进度略有放缓，华北稳定正常，预计春节前仍有一波小 的卖粮小高峰；进口玉米来看，后期巴西进口玉米逐步到港，有利于缓解南方库存紧张的格局。需求端来看，养殖利润持续不 佳，饲料需求短期有韧性，但预期偏悲观；深加工利润依然不佳，开机率维持低位稳定的格局；从补库需求来看，饲料厂及深 加工企业原料库存连续回升，北港库存也明显增加，补库提振力度减弱。综合来看，玉米阶段性供需错配格局结束，后期在需 求不佳及供应充足的背景下，预计偏弱震荡运行为主。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 研究所 1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-01 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现货短期坚挺，盘面高位震荡 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， 中期偏空 | （1）短期基层农户惜售，但短期惜售或意味着卖压的后置，建议关注12-1月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳中略减，单产表 现良好，整体维持丰产预期。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，截至2025年10月，全国工业饲料产量2907万吨，环比减少4.2%，同比增长3.6%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为 38.0%，同比下降2.7个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支撑饲用需求，但 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米年报 供需略转宽松 宽幅震荡运行 玉米 2025 年 11 月 21 日 主要结论 分析师：覃多贵 2025/26 年国际玉米市场总体呈现宽松格局，但供应压力较大的地区主要集 中在美国。目前南美进入播种期，市场预估产量较为稳定。但考虑 ENSO 环流进 入拉尼娜模式，未来天气变化可能会对南美产量的兑现产生不利影响。国内方面， 2025 年全国玉米种植面积仍有增长，同时得益于较好的天气条件，国内单产亦 较上年有所提升，使得总的产量较上年有明显增加。不过，需要注意的是，华北 地区由于收割期受连续降水的影响，玉米品质较差，毒素偏高，限制了其在淀粉 及饲料加工等领域的使用。这使得东北产区优质玉米在饲料领域的价值明显提 升，华北及南方销区的粮商也纷纷加大在东北的收购力度，有利于缓解东北增产 带来的压力。需求方面，2025 年蛋鸡养殖大幅亏损，四季度生猪养殖利润也转 为全面亏损，叠加国家政策引导生猪行业去产能，2026 年饲料消费量预计将有 明显的缩减。深加工方面，考虑到木薯淀粉进口冲击预计有所减弱，同时，华北 质量较差的玉米进入酒精加工领域，预计全年深加工的玉米消耗量将有所恢复。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 现实博弈，震荡筑底 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-10-27 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:现实博弈，震荡筑底 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）东北产地仍面临集中上量压力，华北质量偏差的潮粮也面临保管压力，渠道上量恢复，建议关注11月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降， | | | | | 播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | | | | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年8月，全国工业饲料产量2936万吨，环比增长3.7%，同比增长3.8%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为32.9%； （2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop corn supply - demand is tightening, but there is significant warehouse receipt pressure, causing the futures market to struggle to rebound. With the expected selling pressure during the new - season corn harvest and the reduction in planting costs, a bearish view is maintained on the C11 and C01 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Corn Spot Prices**: The prices of corn at various ports and regions have different levels of change. For example, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Jilin Province corn starch spot price is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Anhui Province wheat spot price is 2433 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The corn主力 contract closing price is 2263 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the corn starch主力 contract closing price is 2614 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [5]. - **International Data**: The US corn closing price is 405.75 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2098.54 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit from importing US corn is 331.46 yuan/ton [5]. Supply Situation - The remaining old - crop grain is in short supply. The volume of grain arriving at the northern ports and the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning are at low levels. The planting cost for the 25/26 season continues to decline, and the estimated port - collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area shows a slight decrease, the new - season corn is growing well, and the import of grain is restricted, leading to a reduction in imported grain supply [5]. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The price difference between wheat and corn is low, and feed mills in North China have a high proportion of wheat as a feed substitute, so they are cautious about purchasing corn. Deep - processing downstream is in a loss state, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, resulting in a reduction in deep - processing demand [5]. Inventory Situation - The inventories at the northern and southern ports are continuously decreasing. The number of days of corn inventory in feed enterprises and the deep - processing corn inventory are both declining [5]. Spread and Other Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous contract) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490. The northern port corn inventory is 177.4 million tons, and the Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 74.8 million tons [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily Report" and is issued by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on August 8, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The southern port's grain inventory is being depleted slowly, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the warehouse receipt pressure is high. Although the supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, the time for the 09 contract is limited. Due to the harvest pressure of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the 11 and 01 contracts of corn are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6] Group 4: Price and Market Data Spot Prices - Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Harbin price in Heilongjiang Province is 2195 yuan/ton, unchanged. Among them, the price in Hebei Province decreased by 10 yuan [5] - Corn starch spot prices are 2750 yuan/ton in Jilin Province and 2434 yuan/ton in Henan Province, both unchanged [5] - Wheat spot prices are 2435 yuan/ton in Anhui Province, down 1 yuan, and 2434 yuan/ton in Jiangsu Province, unchanged [5] Futures Prices - The closing price of the corn main contract is 2267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract is 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] International Data - The closing price of US corn is 402.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2231.87 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported US corn is 198.13 yuan/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.18 [5] Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490 [5] Inventory Data - North port corn inventory is 210.6 tons, Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 88.2 tons, and foreign - trade corn inventory is 0.7 tons. Northeast deep - processing corn inventory is 215.9 tons, and North China deep - processing corn inventory is 114.9 tons [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The remaining grain is in short supply. Northeast grain has the demand for external transportation, and the volumes of grain collection and shipment at the north port have declined. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decrease, and the estimated port collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area has no obvious change, the new - season corn is growing well, and the supply of imported grains is expected to decrease this year due to continuous policy restrictions [5] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting the feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The price difference between wheat and corn is at a low level, feed mills are increasing their wheat purchases, the wheat substitution ratio is increasing, and they are maintaining a cautious attitude towards corn purchases. The deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, and the deep - processing demand is shrinking [5] Inventory - The north port inventory has been depleted to a low level, the southern port grain inventory is being depleted slowly, the feed enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the deep - processing corn inventory has declined this week [5]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 供应趋于偏紧 后市震荡偏强 玉米 2025 年 04 月 25 日 主要结论 综上所述，目前基层余粮见底，玉米及替代性能量原料进口量大幅减少，使 得供应压力逐步减轻；需求端来看，饲料需求有所恢复，深加工消费增长有限， 但总消费仍将增长。结合全渠道库存、进口、消费来看，国内玉米自身供需面偏 紧，需要寻求外源性替代品补充。同时，尽管目前小麦丰产预期仍较强，但今年 最低收购价格上调，小麦不大可能通过大幅下跌，将小麦与玉米价差打至极端低 位，去大幅挤占玉米的市场份额。因此，预计后期玉米震荡偏强运行。操作上， 逢低滚多做多为主。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 ...