1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report holds an optimistic view on corn prices in the first half of the year, but the upside potential is limited. It suggests grain - using enterprises to purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, and traders to buy low and sell high [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The corn main 2603 contract briefly pulled back after reaching a recent high of 2314. The spot price first rose and then fell. The flat - barge price of corn in Bayuquan ranged from 2330 yuan/ton to 2350 yuan/ton and then to 2335 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port was around 2450 yuan/ton. The corn basis fluctuated, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The starch main 2603 contract fluctuated up and down. The starch price was stable, with the price of Weifang Jinyu corn starch at 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened in a fluctuating manner [4] 3.2 New Grain Sales - New grain sales accelerated again after a brief slowdown. As of January 29, the total national grain sales progress was 60%, 2% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the progress in the Northeast was 60%, 4% faster; in North China, it was 54%, 1% slower; in the Northwest, it was 72%, the same as last year. With two weeks to go before the Spring Festival, the pre - holiday grain sales progress may approach 70%, and the remaining grain after the festival will be limited. CNGC's public bidding continued, and as of January 29, 1.03 million tons had been put on the market, with 823,000 tons sold, showing active trading [4] 3.3 Inventory Status - As of January 23, the corn inventory at northern ports was 1.631 million tons, continuing to rise month - on - month and at a low level in the same period in recent years. The weekly shipping volume was 706,000 tons, rising again. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 341,000 tons, falling again month - on - month; the foreign trade corn inventory was 164,000 tons, also falling month - on - month. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of January 30, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 4.405 million tons, continuing to rise month - on - month but still lower than the same period last year. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 31.93 days, rising again month - on - month. As the holiday approaches, the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises may be nearly completed [5] 3.4 Substitution and Import - The price difference between wheat and corn remained high, and substitution was not feasible for the time being. In December, China's corn imports rebounded significantly again, with a month - on - month increase of 44.1% and a year - on - year increase of 135.3%. The cumulative corn imports in 2025 were 2.647 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 80.8%. Since last October, corn imports have rebounded significantly and may continue to increase in the future to adjust the domestic corn supply and demand [5] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The U.S. corn in the external market fluctuated at a low level. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's January supply and demand report increased the U.S. corn production to a record high due to increased yield per unit and harvested area, resulting in a nearly 10% increase in the ending inventory and a 44% year - on - year increase. The South American corn production was not adjusted, and the global corn ending inventory was also increased by 4.2%, but it was still 1.29% lower than last year [5] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand was strong, while deep - processing demand was insufficient. The pig price rebounded, and the breeding profit increased. As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 115.84 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 43.35 yuan per head. The reduction of pig production capacity achieved certain results. In December, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, continuing to decrease; the national pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, showing the first month - on - month decrease in recent years and only a slight year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms also continued to decrease in December, but the production and sales of piglets increased, indicating the downstream's willingness to replenish the inventory. The inventory of commercial pigs also showed the first month - on - month decrease in recent years. There was a phenomenon of holding back pigs in the market. In the poultry sector, the egg price rebounded, and the breeding was slightly profitable again. In December, the sales volume of chicken seedlings rebounded, and the elimination of old chickens continued to increase to a recent high. The inventory of laying hens in December may have decreased slightly again. The breeding profit may drag down the future reduction of livestock and poultry production capacity, and the feed demand may remain strong. The demand of deep - processing enterprises was insufficient. The processing profit of starch processing enterprises was locally in the red, and the operating rate was insufficient. As of January 30, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 59.99%, slightly falling month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.028 million tons, continuing to decline. The alcohol processing enterprises continued to lose money, and the operating rate was 57.43%, remaining the same month - on - month. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises was strong, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was stable [6]

Core Insights - The global corn supply remains ample as the new season's corn is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a continuous decline in domestic corn prices in China. However, as supply-side pressures are fully digested and demand enters a peak season, corn prices are expected to gradually rise [1] Group 1: Production Data - The International Grains Council forecasts that global corn production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable at approximately 1.297 billion tons. In China, the corn planting area has increased by 134,000 hectares, a growth of 0.3%, while the yield per hectare has risen by 71 kg, or about 1.1%. Overall, corn production in China has increased by 4.08 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.38% [2] Group 2: Import Trends - Due to trade disputes between China and the U.S. and Canada, imports of grains, including corn, are expected to decrease. Barley imports are projected to fall below 10 million tons, while sorghum imports are estimated to be between 5.5 million and 6.5 million tons. The recent decline in corn prices has diminished the substitution advantage of other grains against corn. For the 2025-2026 period, corn imports are expected to be around 6 million tons, not exceeding the quota limit of 7.2 million tons [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand - Corn consumption in China is primarily driven by feed and deep processing sectors. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand from livestock, particularly broilers and pigs, is expected to rise, supporting corn feed demand. Additionally, after mid-October, profits for domestic starch and deep processing enterprises are anticipated to return to profitability and continue to rise, boosting production willingness. Data shows that by the end of October, the corn consumption of major deep processing enterprises increased by 6.71% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Inventory Stability - Domestic corn inventory is expected to stabilize around 41 million tons after rebounding in the 2022-2023 season. As of the end of October, the inventory of major deep processing enterprises was 2.827 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio for the new corn year remains reasonable, which will effectively buffer price fluctuations caused by supply growth. Despite a decrease in land rent, rising labor costs limit the decline in planting costs in major corn-producing regions, keeping planting returns at a relatively low level and constraining the downward space for corn prices [5]