售粮再次变快，年后余粮有限 2026年1月30日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 玉米主力2603合约触及2314的近年新高点后短暂回调。现货价格先升后降，其中鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价在2330元/吨- 2350元/吨-2335元/吨变化；蛇口港玉米到港价在2450元/吨附近。玉米基差震荡，盘面小幅贴水。 淀粉主力2603合约上下震荡。淀粉价格稳定，潍坊金玉米淀粉价格在2800元/吨，基差震荡走强。 （1）新粮销售再次变快，年后余粮或偏紧。新粮销售短暂放缓后再次加快，据钢联：截至1月29日，全国售粮总进 度为60%，同比快2%；其中东北地区为60%，同比快4%；华北地区为54%，同比慢1%；西北地区为72%，同比持平。全国售 粮进度达6成提前完成，还有2周的时间，年前售粮进度或接近7成，那么年后余粮将有限。中储粮公开竞价持续，截至1 月29日已投放103万吨，成交82.3万吨，成交较为积极。 （2）港口库存不一，下游企业继续增库。据钢联数据：截至1月23日，北港玉米库存为163.1万吨，环比继续回升， 处于近年同期低位；周度下海量为70.6万吨，再次走高。广 ...

Core Insights - The global corn supply remains ample as the new season's corn is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a continuous decline in domestic corn prices in China. However, as supply-side pressures are fully digested and demand enters a peak season, corn prices are expected to gradually rise [1] Group 1: Production Data - The International Grains Council forecasts that global corn production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable at approximately 1.297 billion tons. In China, the corn planting area has increased by 134,000 hectares, a growth of 0.3%, while the yield per hectare has risen by 71 kg, or about 1.1%. Overall, corn production in China has increased by 4.08 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.38% [2] Group 2: Import Trends - Due to trade disputes between China and the U.S. and Canada, imports of grains, including corn, are expected to decrease. Barley imports are projected to fall below 10 million tons, while sorghum imports are estimated to be between 5.5 million and 6.5 million tons. The recent decline in corn prices has diminished the substitution advantage of other grains against corn. For the 2025-2026 period, corn imports are expected to be around 6 million tons, not exceeding the quota limit of 7.2 million tons [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand - Corn consumption in China is primarily driven by feed and deep processing sectors. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand from livestock, particularly broilers and pigs, is expected to rise, supporting corn feed demand. Additionally, after mid-October, profits for domestic starch and deep processing enterprises are anticipated to return to profitability and continue to rise, boosting production willingness. Data shows that by the end of October, the corn consumption of major deep processing enterprises increased by 6.71% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Inventory Stability - Domestic corn inventory is expected to stabilize around 41 million tons after rebounding in the 2022-2023 season. As of the end of October, the inventory of major deep processing enterprises was 2.827 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio for the new corn year remains reasonable, which will effectively buffer price fluctuations caused by supply growth. Despite a decrease in land rent, rising labor costs limit the decline in planting costs in major corn-producing regions, keeping planting returns at a relatively low level and constraining the downward space for corn prices [5]