玉米期货价格走势
Search documents
玉米类市场周报:市场氛围有所好转,玉米期价震荡上涨-20260213
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, corn futures fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA's supply and demand report was slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, there is still potential import pressure in the international market, and there are also factors affecting supply in the domestic market. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has declined, but inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Performance**: This week, the main 2605 contract of corn futures closed at 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA's supply and demand report was favorable, but there is potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain and that of drying towers to purchase are not high. Feed enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and deep - processing enterprises are gradually shutting down. There are rumors that the supply of policy grains will increase after the Spring Festival. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market has gradually become inactive. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has decreased, and inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, up 3.00 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 5 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 1,212,499 lots, an increase of 350,488 lots compared to last week. The 5 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 174,854 lots, an increase of 48,601 lots compared to last week [15]. 3.2.2. Net Position Changes of the Top 20 - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures this week was - 212,341, compared with - 120,101 last week, and the net short position increased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures was - 35,300, compared with - 28,786 last week, and the net short position increased [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 88,570, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 5 - month contract of corn and the average spot price was + 52 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2790 yuan/ton in Shandong. The basis between the 5 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 62 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 5 - 7 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch was + 7 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the 5 - month contracts of starch and corn was 318 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2530.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 158.56 yuan/ton. In the 7th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 572 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 3 yuan/ton compared to last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of February 6, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 43.1 tons, a decrease of 15.10 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 8.7 tons, a decrease of 3.50 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 179.2 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 70.6 tons, the same as last week [46]. - As of February 12, the overall progress of domestic farmers selling corn was 65%, a 2% increase compared to February 5, 2026, and a 4% increase year - on - year [57]. - In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 80.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.12% and a month - on - month increase of 24.52 tons [61]. - As of February 12, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.02 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.66% [65]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase compared to the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease [69]. - As of February 6, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 38.09 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 91.42 yuan/head [73]. - As of February 12, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 628 yuan/ton, - 745 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 194 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of February 11, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 543.8 tons, an increase of 6.07% [81]. - From February 5 to February 11, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 59.74 tons, a decrease of 1.67 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 30.47 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.68%, a decrease of 2.1% compared to last week. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90% [85]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 13, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn was 11.13%, a 0.56% increase compared to last week's 10.57%. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased this week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [88].
玉米:河南小麦托市收购启动
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 11:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn futures prices are expected to continue a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The C2507 contract has a support level of 2300 and a resistance level of 2420. Corn starch futures prices are cost - driven and generally follow the corn trend, with the 07 contract expected to trade in the 2600 - 2800 range [98][151]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Review Corn - CBOT corn prices are oscillating weakly. As of June 9, the closing price of the CBOT corn main contract was 433 cents per bushel, down 1.2% week - on - week. The net long position of managed funds continued to decrease. As of June 3, the net long position was - 154,043 lots, a decrease of 53,283 lots week - on - week [9]. - Domestic corn futures prices are oscillating strongly, and the trading volume has decreased. As of June 9, the closing price of the DCE corn futures main contract was 2357 yuan/ton, up 1.38% week - on - week; the trading volume of corn futures contracts was 1,886,681 lots, down 3.73% week - on - week. The registered corn warehouse receipts are at a high level and stable, which suppresses the futures price. The previous high of 2380 is the resistance level [13][14]. - The term structure of corn futures contracts shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Compared with last week, futures prices have generally increased. The C07 - C09 spread is stable, and the spread is at an average and relatively low level. Corn prices are expected to consolidate at a high level in the third quarter and remain strong before the autumn corn harvest [18]. - Corn spot prices are rising steadily. As of June 9, the national average corn spot price was 2390.29 yuan/ton, up 0.29% week - on - week. Due to the strong oscillation of futures prices and stable spot prices, the basis of the corn main contract has narrowed. As of June 9, the basis was 33.29 yuan/ton, down 25.04 yuan/ton week - on - week [23]. Corn Starch - Last week, corn starch futures prices trended strongly, and the trading volume increased. As of June 9, the closing price of the Dalian corn starch main contract was 2687 yuan/ton, up 1.36% week - on - week; the trading volume was 338,809 lots, up 4.73% week - on - week [104]. - The number of registered corn starch warehouse receipts has declined from a high level, currently at 24,237 lots, a decrease of 235 lots week - on - week. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the weekly trading volume of corn starch futures has dropped to a low level. Last week, the trading volume was 513,300 lots, down 21.71% week - on - week [107]. - As of June 9, the aggregated average price of Grade - 1 national - standard corn starch was 2846 yuan/ton, up 0.57% week - on - week; the corn starch basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [109]. - From the term structure, all corn starch contracts have risen compared with last week, with similar increases, still showing a near - weak, middle - strong, and far - weak pattern. The spread between corn starch and corn futures contracts has oscillated narrowly. As of June 9, the spread of the 07 contract was 330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [113]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis Corn - USDA predicts that the new - season corn production in the 2025/26 season will be the same as last year, while increasing feed consumption by 5 million tons, with a narrower increase than last year, and the ending inventory will drop to a multi - year low. Huiyi.com has increased the 2024 and 2025 corn production by 5.6 million tons and 6.47 million tons respectively in its May balance sheet, and the ending inventory continues to grow [29][30]. - Although tariff negotiations have made positive progress, the actual import of US corn is still at a loss. In the short term, corn imports from the US are difficult to resume, and further negotiation results between China and the US are awaited [31]. - The planting and growth progress of US corn is normal, but the drought is more severe than in previous years, although it has eased this week [33]. - In May, grain imports increased significantly, and corn imports are expected to expand. Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have decreased significantly. In April this year, corn imports were 180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.7%; cumulative imports in 2025 were 440,000 tons, a decrease of 95.2% compared with the same period last year [36][38]. - The number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. Wheat basis sales have started. The two - way trading and sales activity of corn has decreased, procurement has basically stagnated, and corn has maintained a net rotation out. Since September last year, the net procurement volume has been 2.22 million tons [39][43]. - Port inventories have decreased rapidly. The inventories of the four northern ports and Guangdong ports have decreased to varying degrees [46][47]. - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has rebounded but is still lower than in previous years; the corn inventory of feed enterprises has decreased slightly but is still at a high level [54][55]. - The corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased slightly. In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, up 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year [59][68]. - In April, the sales volume of pig feed increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, with a relatively large increase. Pig prices have slightly decreased, and pig - raising profits have remained stable. The pig - grain ratio has continued to decline [69][75][82]. - Wheat prices have slightly decreased, the wheat - corn spread has narrowed, and the proportion of wheat used as feed substitutes has increased [85][86]. Corn Starch - The spread between corn starch and corn spot prices has narrowed [118]. - The operating rate and production of corn starch enterprises have decreased. The operating rate of corn starch enterprises was 26.79% as of June 6, down 4.70% month - on - month and 16.67% year - on - year [123][124]. - The losses of corn starch enterprises have narrowed, but the absolute loss value is still high [126]. - Corn starch inventories are oscillating at a high level [134]. - The demand for corn starch has declined [140]. Third Part: Future Outlook Corn - Brazil's second - season corn harvest is slow, the US corn export performance is higher than trade expectations, and Ukraine has lowered its expectations for grain production and exports [94][96]. - China - US trade relations have eased, and Henan has launched the minimum purchase price policy for wheat. The corn market is expected to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be established on dips [97][98]. Corn Starch - The fundamental situation of corn starch is weak. Although the spot and futures prices of corn starch have slightly increased and enterprise losses have narrowed, the absolute loss value is still high, leading to low operating willingness and decreased production. Downstream demand for corn starch has decreased week - on - week, and enterprise inventories are oscillating at a high level. Corn starch futures prices are still cost - driven and generally follow the corn trend. The 07 contract is expected to trade in the 2600 - 2800 range [151].