研究所 结构性偏紧支撑 期货近强远弱 ——国信期货玉米周报 2026年01月09日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国内玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 3 玉米淀粉市场动态 4 国际玉米市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货震荡为主，东北产区表现偏强，华北略偏弱，港口现货震荡调整。期货先弱后强，周线明显上涨，主力C03 再度逼近12月上旬的高点。锦州对C03基差走弱，C3-C5月差大幅走强，近端期货表现强于现货，主要是由于期货高贴水及仓 单持续低位下的估值修复。往后来看，供应端，本年玉米尽管增产，但年初结转库存偏低及华北玉米质量偏差的背景下，东北 玉米丰产压力得到有效承接。需求端来看，饲料企业备库到偏正常水平，而在养殖持续亏损、饲料需求预期悲观的情景下，饲 料企业进一步主动提升库存水平动力不足；深加工企业原料库存仍处于偏低水平，但环比有所回升，考虑下游消费偏弱，后期 虽有进一步补库空间，但力度也受限。从中间环节库存来看，北港库存12月下旬未能继续回升，转而下降；南方港口库存回 升，但绝对水平仍偏低，整体流通库存反映结构性偏紧情况依然未完全消除。但同时，政策性粮源的拍卖亦有序推进，有利于 补充市场 ...

东北玉米价格上涨的原因何在？郑州粮食批发市场高级分析师王向博认为，价格上涨是多种因素叠 加作用的结果。首先，国内局部产区遭遇不利天气。2025年秋收关键时期，河南、山东、河北等地连遭 阴雨，新玉米水分普遍较高，未能及时烘干的玉米发芽率、霉变较常年增加不少，使得原本具备一定自 给能力的华北产区不得不大量外调东北玉米，带动东北玉米价格上涨。其次，中储粮加大轮换收购力 度，起到了稳市场、稳预期的积极作用。此外，进口大幅收缩，增加了市场对国产玉米的需求。海关数 据显示，2025年前11个月，我国累计进口玉米185万吨，同比减少86.1%。 经济日报记者 刘慧 受价格上涨等利好因素影响，2025年东北农户种植玉米利润较好，同比增加明显。记者近日在黑龙 江、内蒙古采访时了解到，当地玉米价格已经从上市初期的每吨2050元左右上涨至2230元左右。随着玉 米价格上涨，农民惜售情绪渐涨。"我们有粮食烘干仓储设施，把玉米烘干储存起来，等待价格合适时 再卖。"内蒙古通辽经济开发区佳业种养殖专业合作社理事长朱德喜说。 与东北玉米增产增收相比，华北、黄淮地区玉米收成欠佳。黄淮海地区玉米生长期遭遇先旱后涝， 对玉米成熟和收获造成较大影响 ...

研究报告 政策托底支撑显效，盘面供需博弈加剧 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周玉米期货盘面价格先稳后扬，周五盘面显著走强，截至 上周五夜盘收盘，玉米期货主力合约 C2603 收报 2230 元/吨，涨 1%；上周 CBOT 玉米期货主力合约盘面震荡走强，截至上周收盘报 449.50 美分/蒲式耳，跌 0.33%。 【基本面分析】 全国玉米周均价为 2300 元/吨，环比跌 10 元/吨，周末价格 重心继续上移。上周东北产区玉米价格较为平稳，截至上周五， 哈尔滨二等玉米价格为 2100 元/吨，长春二等玉米价格为 2210 元 /吨，均较前周持平；华北产区玉米价格稳定运行，截至上周五， 山东潍坊寿光金玉米收购价格 2290 元/吨，较前周持平；销区及 港口玉米价格先稳后扬，截至上 ...

卓创资讯玉米市场分析师李霞 【导语】11-12月锦州港、东北产区玉米价格整体偏强运行，北方六港玉米集港量降幅大于下海量，库 存处于近三年同期最低水平。由于船期较多，北港价格优势不明显，预计12月北港玉米集港量难有明显 增加，库存增速放缓。 11-12月锦州港玉米收购价格与东北产区价格趋同 11-12月份锦州港玉米收购价格整体呈上涨趋势，与东北产区均价趋同运行。卓创资讯监测数据显示， 截至12月19日，锦州港玉米日均收购价由2085元/吨涨至2250元/吨，涨幅7.91%；东北产区玉米日均价 由2031元/吨涨至2169元/吨，涨幅6.77%；两者平均价差为88元/吨，12月出现收窄趋势。产区成本支撑 及南方市场需求旺盛是锦州港玉米收购价格偏强运行的根本原因。 北方六港玉米下海量略低于去年同期 北方港口的玉米下海量较大程度上反映了南方饲用玉米的需求量。卓创资讯监测数据显示，今年10-11 月北方六港玉米下海总量约为503万吨，较去年同期微降1.75%，主要原因是采购成本偏高。从图中可 看出，今年10月北方六港玉米下海量同比增长近一半，主要是10月份东北产区新季玉米开始上市，价格 有明显优势，且南方饲料企业库存降 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月18日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王凌辉 | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 旅鉄 | 旅跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8510 | -20 | -0.59% | | | 期分 | Y2605 | 8096 | 8172 | -76 | -0.93% | | | 墓差 | Y2605 | 364 | 338 | 26 | 7.69% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+490 | 01+490 | 0 | ւ | | | 仓单 | | 25964 | 25964 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | | 现价 期价 | 广东24度 P2605 | 8380 8398 | 8430 8 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core Views Corn - Globally, the U.S. corn is in the export season with high supply pressure, and the global and U.S. corn supply - demand is still relatively loose, suppressing international corn prices However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the U.S. corn's 2025/26 carry - over inventory forecast supports U.S. corn prices [2] - In China's Northeast region, the increased acquisition by reserve warehouses in December supports the market bottom, but high prices limit buyers' enthusiasm, and the release of grain sources due to rumors leads to a price decline In the North China and Huanghuai regions, farmers' selling enthusiasm increases slightly, and prices fluctuate slightly [2] - Corn futures prices have fallen from high levels recently after an unexpected increase, with high short - term volatility, so it's recommended to wait and see [2] Corn Starch - With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry's operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure As of December 17, the national corn starch inventory has increased However, the upcoming festivals may boost demand, and the price increase of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3] - Affected by the decline in corn prices, corn starch prices have also fallen, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2206 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2512 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Corn monthly spread (1 - 5): - 16 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3): 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 988,605 lots, up 543,683 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 132,098 lots, down 5,695 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 96,862 lots, up 6,528 lots; for corn starch: - 33,511 lots, down 193 lots [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 54,440 lots, down 1,790 lots; for corn starch: 2,500 lots, unchanged [2] - CS - C price difference of the main contract: 333 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 436 cents/bu, down 3.5 cents; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,616,139 contracts, up 13,001 contracts [2] - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn (weekly): 120,900 contracts, up 77,887 contracts [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,350.78 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,120.47 yuan/ton, down 2.11 yuan; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - International freight of imported corn: 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; basis of the main corn starch contract: 88 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 144.78 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 466 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2] Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2,517.78 yuan/ton, down 0.89 yuan; price difference between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 725 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2] - Price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 229 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the U.S. (monthly): 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the U.S. (monthly): 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil (monthly): 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil (monthly): 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina (monthly): 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina (monthly): 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in China (monthly): 295 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in China (monthly): 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2] - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine (monthly): 32 million tons, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 31.5 tons, down 20.2 tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 294 tons, up 18.6 tons [2] - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 152 tons, down 11 tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 107.4 tons, up 2.5 tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 36 tons, up 30 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 19.17 tons, up 6.39 tons [2] - Monthly feed production: 2,957 tons, down 171.7 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Shandong (daily): - 8 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 29.53 days, up 0.86 days; processing profit of corn starch in Hebei (daily): 74 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 141.67 tons, down 0.09 tons; processing profit of corn starch in Jilin (daily): - 53 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 68.22%, down 2.06%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 62.31%, down 0.53% [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 11.72%, down 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn (daily): 9.45%, down 0.03% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn (daily): 1.48%, down 7.11%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn (daily): 5.17%, down 3.41% [2] Industry News - On December 16, CGSGB invited bids for the sale of imported corn, with 103,129 tons of 2021 U.S. corn planned for auction, all of which were sold The auction reserve price was 2,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 2,070 - 2,085 yuan/ton, and the premium was 70 - 85 yuan/ton [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market prices are suppressed by high supply pressure and relatively loose supply - demand conditions, but the strong US domestic corn spot market provides support [2]. - In the domestic market, in the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell, and buyers are active. Deep - processing enterprises' prices are likely to rise. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market volume is increasing, and processing enterprises' purchase prices fluctuate slightly. Corn futures prices are generally in a strong - side shock [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure increases due to abundant raw materials and rising industry operating rates, but strong downstream demand and smooth enterprise sales lead to a decline in inventory. Starch futures prices also maintain a strong - side shock [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,287 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 14 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures positions: 938,213 lots for yellow corn and 229,123 lots for corn starch, with an increase of 3,174 lots for corn starch [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 184,321 lots for corn starch and - 40,210 lots for corn, a decrease of 7,515 lots for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 58,664 lots for yellow corn and 0 lots for corn starch; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 351 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 443.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents; total CBOT corn positions are 1,644,250 lots, down 11,481 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are 37,621 lots, down 83,343 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Average corn spot price is 2,348.63 yuan/ton, up 8.73 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Changchun is 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port is 2,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Weifang is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn CIF price is 2,095.98 yuan/ton, down 2.33 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch main - contract basis is 52 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; corn main - contract basis is - 19.27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 61.63 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 601 yuan/ton, up 147 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Predicted corn planting areas: 42.71 million hectares in the US, 13.1 million hectares in Brazil, 5.3 million hectares in Argentina, and 29.5 million hectares in China [2]. - Predicted corn yields: 364.4 million tons in the US, 22.6 million tons in Brazil, 7.5 million tons in Argentina, 44.3 million tons in China, and 32 million tons in Ukraine [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories: 59.9 million tons in southern ports, down 2.9 million tons; 140 million tons in northern ports, up 6 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventory is 105.4 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. - Corn imports are 6 million tons, down 2 million tons; corn starch exports are 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days are 27.83 days, up 1.6 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 142.34 million tons, up 4.03 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate is 71.34%, up 1.89%; starch enterprise operating rate is 61.66%, up 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.7%, up 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility is 8.59%, up 0.11% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 12.11%, up 1.94%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.11%, up 1.94% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazilian 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 138 million tons, 2 million tons lower than the previous forecast [2]. - Analysts expect US 2025/26 corn export net sales from October 30, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 2.5 million tons [2].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Corn Series Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price and Data Information Spot Prices - Corn Spot: Prices in various regions on November 21st remained mostly stable, with some exceptions like Inner Mongolia - Tongliao up 20 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia - Chifeng up 30 yuan/ton. For example, Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2220 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang - Harbin was 2030 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: Prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2534 yuan/ton, 2518 yuan/ton, and 2525 yuan/ton respectively, with Jiangsu up 2 yuan/ton [5]. Futures Prices - Corn Main Contract Closing Price: 2241 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a C01 - 05 spread of -57 [5]. - Corn Starch Main Contract Closing Price: 2590 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan, with a CS01 - 05 spread of -66 [5]. International Data - US Corn Closing Price: 437.75 cents per bushel, with an imported US corn duty - paid price of 2149.25 yuan/ton and an estimated profit of 220.75 yuan/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [5]. Spread Data - Starch - Corn (Main Continuous): 349; Starch - Corn (Jilin Spot Average): 440 [5]. Inventory Data - North Port Corn Inventory: 117.0 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Domestic: 27.3 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - Northeast: 177.5 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Foreign: 35.5 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - North China: 75.4 million tons [5] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure later, with attention on the selling pressure from December to January. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the yield per unit is good, and a bumper harvest is expected. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, and the supply of imported grains is shrinking [5]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Enterprises with low inventory have a rigid demand for replenishing corn, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs. Channel traders have a strong purchasing willingness [5]. Inventory - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, while the corn inventory at South Ports is rising. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory is increasing. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventory is low, and deep - processing corn is seasonally accumulating inventory [5]. Group 4: Core View - In the short term, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tension in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory lead to a temporary supply shortage, postponing the selling pressure. Before the supply pressure is fully released, the market's ability to accept high - priced corn is limited. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and will face pressure tests later. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, logistics, and weather [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, due to farmers' reluctance to sell and some buyers' need to replenish high - quality corn stocks, spot prices in the production areas are firm, and the futures market rebounds. However, with the expected post - ponement of selling pressure and the lack of strong upward drivers before the full release of supply pressure, the short - term rebound is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent farmers' selling rhythm and traders' stock - purchasing behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On November 13th, the flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port was 2,200 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Bayuquan Port was 2,205 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and in Shekou Port was 2,330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The prices in different regions within provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia also showed various changes. The corn starch spot price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan/ton, and in Henan was 2,514 yuan/ton. The wheat spot price in Anhui was 2,504 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 2,509 yuan/ton [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the corn main contract was 2,188 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2,490 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The closing price of US corn was 435.50 cents per bushel, the import duty - paid price of US corn was 2,180.40 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of importing US corn was 139.60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spread Data**: The starch - corn spread of the main continuous contract was 302, and the starch - corn spread of the Jilin spot average price was 460 [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventory in the northern ports was 85.2 million tons, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.3 million tons, the foreign trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.4 million tons, the deep - processing corn inventory in the Northeast was 184.4 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory in North China was 68.8 million tons [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The Northeast production area still faces the pressure of concentrated supply, and the low - quality damp grain in North China also has storage pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the selling pressure in the production areas from December to January. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the per - unit yield is good, and an overall bumper harvest is expected. The import of grains is restricted by policies, and the supply of imported grains is decreasing [5]. - **Demand**: According to the data of the Feed Industry Association, in September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by enterprises was 33.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4 percentage points. In the short term, the high inventory of livestock and poultry is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Feed enterprises have a low inventory and a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have a seasonal demand for building stocks, and traders have a strong willingness to purchase [5]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed in the northern ports is slow, and the corn inventory in the southern ports has rebounded from a low level. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory has increased. With the supplement of new - season corn, the ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprises have a low inventory, and deep - processing corn has a seasonal inventory increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For corn, as the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the recent rise in US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are still releasing sales pressure, but as multiple market entities build storage and the central reserve increases purchases, the circulation of grain sources slows down, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising due to improved processing profits, increasing supply - side pressure. However, downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed down slightly, and inventory has increased marginally. The corn starch market has oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 86 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 966186 hands, down 10833 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands, up 118210 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66351 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2479 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 7 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 226343 hands, up 261 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands, up 58773 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12453 hands [2]. Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 426.75 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total holding volume is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2243.33 yuan/ton, up 4.8 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2036.72 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 42 US dollars/ton; the basis of the main contract is 79.33 yuan/ton, down 10.2 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract is 31 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 524 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2485.33 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 322 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 235 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 427.11 million tons, up 1.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 74.2 tons, up 13.5 tons; at northern ports is 122 tons, up 14 tons; the monthly import volume is 6 tons, up 2 tons [2]. - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 113.8 tons, up 1 ton; the weekly increase rate is 0.89%, the monthly increase rate is 0.89%, and the year - on - year increase rate is 33.26% [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly output is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 24.88 days, up 0.78 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 138.18 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing: The processing profit in Shandong is 42 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Hebei is 124 yuan/ton; in Jilin is 94 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is down 1.63%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 62.77%, up 3.91% [2]. Option Market - For corn, the 20 - day historical volatility is 9.88%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.66%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 8.53%, up 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.52%, up 0.57% [2]. Industry News - The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that the global grain production in 2025 will reach a record 2.99 billion tons, a 4.4% increase from 2024. All major grain productions will increase, with corn having the largest increase and rice the smallest. Corn and rice production are expected to hit new highs [2]. - As of November 2nd, the US corn harvest is 83% complete, up from 72% a week ago [2].