投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 玉米 玉米 | 报告 2026 年 3 月 3 日 玉米 专业研究·创造价值 玉米 产销区"飘红" 需求不"买账" 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会 授 予 的 期 货 从 业 资 格 证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本 人 承 诺 以 勤 勉 的 职 业 态 度，独立、客观地出具本报 告。本报告清晰准确地反映 了本人的研究观点。本人不 会因本报告中的具体推荐意 见或观点而直接或间接接收 到任何形式的报酬。 玉米 | 报告 2026 年春节后，国内玉米产业链上游原料价格受支撑，中游加工企业面临成本压力与效 益亏损，下游需求复苏缓慢，市场观望情绪较浓。 供应偏紧 产区价格走强 春节长假结束后，玉米产区并未立即恢复常态。农户售粮节奏缓慢，导致市场粮源阶段 性供应偏紧，支撑现货价格普遍上涨。但不同产区因供需基本面差异，价格涨幅和市场情绪 有所不同。东北产区玉米价格稳中有升，呈现偏强 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 补库需求支撑 玉米偏强震荡 玉米 2026 年 2 月 27 日 主要结论 从国际市场来看，2025/26 年美国、乌克兰玉米产量增加，南美巴西、阿根 廷玉米产量相对稳定，全球玉米供需面总体偏宽松，但由于美国大豆玉米比价偏 高，26/27 年美国玉米播种面积有所减少，可能对国际玉米带来炒作题材。国内 方面，2025/26 年玉米增产明显，但华北玉米质量较差，使得用粮企业的需求更 多地转向东北玉米，较好地承接了东北玉米增产的压力。目前整体玉米售粮进度 较快，有利于减轻春季上市压力。进口来看，25/26 年度饲料谷物进口预计仍处 于偏低水平，但阶段性进口会形成一定补充。需求端来看，养殖行业持续亏损， 生猪、鸡蛋行业产能将下降，饲料需求短期有韧性，但未来趋势偏向悲观。深加 工方面，淀粉加工利润不佳，开机率低位，酒精消化劣质玉米为主。中下游库存 行为来看，经过前期消耗后，用粮企业有一定补库需求，但在整体需求预期不佳 的背景下，难有持续大幅提高库存水平的动力。综合来看，玉米市场短期下游补 库对市场形成一定支撑，但后期仍需关注北方升温后售粮节奏、替代谷物进口规 模及政策拍卖的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, corn futures fluctuated and rose. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week. The USDA's supply and demand report was slightly positive, boosting the US corn market price. However, there is still potential import pressure in the international market, and there are also factors affecting supply in the domestic market. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the main 2605 contract was 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has declined, but inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Performance**: This week, the main 2605 contract of corn futures closed at 2320 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from last week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA's supply and demand report was favorable, but there is potential import pressure. In the domestic market, the enthusiasm of farmers in the Northeast to sell grain and that of drying towers to purchase are not high. Feed enterprises' pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and deep - processing enterprises are gradually shutting down. There are rumors that the supply of policy grains will increase after the Spring Festival. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market has gradually become inactive. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [7]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2638 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of corn starch production enterprises has decreased, and inventory has increased. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, up 3.00 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 5 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 1,212,499 lots, an increase of 350,488 lots compared to last week. The 5 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and rose, with a total position of 174,854 lots, an increase of 48,601 lots compared to last week [15]. 3.2.2. Net Position Changes of the Top 20 - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures this week was - 212,341, compared with - 120,101 last week, and the net short position increased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures was - 35,300, compared with - 28,786 last week, and the net short position increased [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 88,570, and those of corn starch were 11,611 [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The basis between the active 5 - month contract of corn and the average spot price was + 52 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2700 yuan/ton and 2790 yuan/ton in Shandong. The basis between the 5 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 62 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 5 - 7 spread of corn was - 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch was + 7 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the 5 - month contracts of starch and corn was 318 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of February 12, 2026, the average spot price of wheat was 2530.72 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2372.16 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread was 158.56 yuan/ton. In the 7th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 572 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 3 yuan/ton compared to last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of February 6, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 43.1 tons, a decrease of 15.10 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 8.7 tons, a decrease of 3.50 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 179.2 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons week - on - week. The shipping volume of the four northern ports was 70.6 tons, the same as last week [46]. - As of February 12, the overall progress of domestic farmers selling corn was 65%, a 2% increase compared to February 5, 2026, and a 4% increase year - on - year [57]. - In December 2025, China's corn import volume was 80.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.12% and a month - on - month increase of 24.52 tons [61]. - As of February 12, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 33.02 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.66% [65]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, a 0.5% increase compared to the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease [69]. - As of February 6, 2026, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 38.09 yuan/head, and that of purchasing piglets was 91.42 yuan/head [73]. - As of February 12, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 71 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 628 yuan/ton, - 745 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 194 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of February 11, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 543.8 tons, an increase of 6.07% [81]. - From February 5 to February 11, 2026, the national corn processing volume was 59.74 tons, a decrease of 1.67 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 30.47 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.68%, a decrease of 2.1% compared to last week. As of February 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 102.5 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.90% [85]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis As of February 13, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn was 11.13%, a 0.56% increase compared to last week's 10.57%. The implied volatility first decreased and then increased this week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Corn - The supply - demand pattern of US corn is relatively loose, which continues to restrain the international corn market price, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [2] - In the domestic market, over 60% of corn has been sold by farmers in the Northeast. As the Spring Festival approaches, corn market trading is gradually weakening. Most enterprises have established safety inventories and the restocking is nearing completion. The price difference between Northeast and North - China corn has narrowed, and the advantage of outward transportation has declined. Some drying towers have stopped purchasing, and the spot price is slightly weak [2] - In the North - China and Huanghuai regions, the grass - roots trading is relatively stable. Low - quality corn has been mostly sold, and traders' willingness to stock has increased. Although the arrival volume of processing enterprises has decreased, it has increased compared with the previous period. The grain source distribution is uneven, and most enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling is gradually coming to an end. The purchase price is mainly fluctuating slightly [2] - The corn futures market was previously boosted by the strong spot market and showed a strong shock. However, there is still significant upward pressure, and the short - term high has declined [2] Corn Starch - As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics is about to stop, and downstream enterprises are actively picking up goods. In addition, a few enterprises in Hebei and Henan have reduced their operating rates due to environmental protection reasons, driving the industry inventory to continue to decline. As of February 4, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 99.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.30 million tons from the previous week, with a weekly decline of 3.21% and a year - on - year decline of 24.85% [3] - The corn starch futures price has slightly declined recently, generally maintaining a shock, and short - term observation is recommended [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2264 yuan/ton, with a change of - 24; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2517 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 [2] - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 552,893 lots, a decrease of 60,108; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 136,878 lots, a decrease of 5,397 [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 128,297 lots, a decrease of 2,714; for corn starch: - 29,140 lots, a decrease of 2,400 [2] - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 53,570 lots, no change; for corn starch: 11,161 lots, no change [2] - The spread between the main CS - C contracts: 307 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 [2] External Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 429 cents/bushel, with a change of 0.25; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1,707,454 contracts, an increase of 39,668 [2] - Non - commercial net long positions in CBOT corn: - 31,671 contracts, an increase of 20,033 [2] Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,368.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,610 yuan/ton, no change [2] - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang: 2,790 yuan/ton, no change [2] - CIF price of imported corn: 2,046.77 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.86; international freight for imported corn: 54 US dollars/ton, no change [2] - Basis of the main corn contract: 104.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.55; basis of the main corn starch contract: 93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 [2] Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 425.53 million tons; in Brazil: 131 million tons; in Argentina: 53 million tons; in China: 295 million tons; in Ukraine: 29 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons) [2] - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares; in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares; in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares; in China: 44.3 million hectares [2] Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports: 50.50 million tons, a decrease of 19.20 million tons; at northern ports: 180 million tons, an increase of 5 million tons [2] - Deep - processing corn inventory: 440.50 million tons, an increase of 56.70 million tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory: 99.50 million tons, a decrease of 3.30 million tons [2] - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, an increase of 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Monthly feed production: 3,008.60 million tons, an increase of 30.70 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days: 31.93 days, an increase of 0.61 days [2] - Deep - processing corn consumption: 138.54 million tons, an increase of 0.39 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate: 57.43%, an increase of 0.1%; starch enterprise operating rate: 57.79%, a decrease of 2.2% [2] - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 46 yuan/ton, no change; in Hebei: 63 yuan/ton, no change; in Jilin: - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 [2] Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.26%, a decrease of 0.87%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.99%, a decrease of 0.02% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 7.21%, a decrease of 1.56%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 7.21%, a decrease of 1.56% [2] Industry News - As of Tuesday, the first - season corn harvesting in Brazil's Parana state has reached 10%, up 7 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than 11% in the same period last year and far lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [2] - The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. Analysts expect that the net export sales of US corn for the week ending January 29, 2026, will be between 800,000 and 2 million tons [2] Key Points to Watch - The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises from Thursday to Friday by Mysteel [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is entering the pre - festival purchasing and selling sprint stage. The overall grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, but the pre - festival concentrated grain sales pressure has not been fully released. Northeast grain sales are faster than last year, while North China is slower. Pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate within a limited range. After the Spring Festival, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn Market Structure - Since the end of December, the price of the corn main contract has rebounded from a low of 2183 yuan/ton and reached a high of 2314 yuan/ton on January 26, then entered a high - level correction. The grain sales progress in the Northeast is 62%, and 53% in North China. The market circulation of grain sources has increased, but farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain. State reserve and local reserve corn supplies are increasing, which may put pressure on prices. Downstream enterprises are near the balance of profit and loss and have limited acceptance of high - priced corn, and pre - festival inventory - building demand is approaching the end [8] - The overall structure shows a Contango structure, with 05 contract at a discount to 09, and 09 at a discount to 01 [9] 3.2 Market行情Analysis 3.2.1 Loose supply in the corn market lays the foundation for low prices - The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". The national corn output in 2026 is expected to be 301.24 million tons, an increase of 3.38 million tons compared with 2024. Imported corn auctions and wheat substitution have made the market supply more balanced. The planting cost in the Northeast has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu. After calculation, the port collection price is about 2000 yuan/ton, and the bottom of the corn futures price is between 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton [12][13][14] - There are still regional and structural contradictions in corn production. About 20 - 30 million tons of North China corn has quality problems, which has increased the demand for Northeast corn. The current grain sales progress in the Northeast is about 65%, and 55% in North China. Farmers are still reluctant to sell high - quality grain, and the increase in state and local reserve corn supplies may put pressure on prices [17] - In December 2025, China imported 800,000 tons of corn, a year - on - year increase of 1.35%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 2.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41%. It is expected that the import volume in early 2026 will remain low, and the import volume in 2025/2026 is estimated to be 4 million tons, an increase of 2.18 million tons compared with the previous year [19] - In 2025, wheat production increased by about 4% year - on - year. Due to weak demand, wheat has a price advantage over corn, and the estimated substitution volume is between 20 - 30 million tons. As the price difference between corn and wheat reverses, wheat substitution is expected to decrease [24] 3.2.2 Downstream demand remains rigid but has no incremental growth, with limited boosting effect - In the feed and breeding sector, the policy has promoted the reduction of sow inventory since July, but the process is slow. As of December 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, and the sow inventory was 39.61 million. The pig price is below the cost, and the short - term demand for corn feed is mainly rigid. The recent breeding profit has rebounded slightly, with the profit of purchasing piglets at 47.8 yuan/head and the profit of self - breeding sows at 96.27 yuan/head as of January 30 [29] - In the deep - processing sector, after the price increase of new - season corn, the cost has increased significantly, and enterprises are in a loss state. The total regional processing profit is - 49.11 yuan/ton. Enterprises' enthusiasm for inventory replenishment is affected, and feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand [30] 3.2.3 Inventory is at a phased low, increasing price elasticity - As of January 30, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 1.63 million tons, and the inventory in the Guangdong port was 660,000 tons. The decline in northern port inventory may be due to the depletion of farmers' surplus grain and traders' hoarding. The decline in southern port inventory reflects the decrease in arrivals and stable downstream提货. The overall decline in port inventory makes the market more sensitive to price fluctuations [36] 3.3 Market Outlook - The pre - festival supply pressure is controllable, and prices will fluctuate in a narrow range. After the Spring Festival, due to temperature rise and farmers' storage pressure, there may be phased concentrated grain sales pressure. Attention should be paid to the grain sales rhythm, downstream demand recovery, and market sentiment [6][38]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Globally, the corn supply - demand situation in 2025/26 is generally loose, with increased production in the US and Ukraine, and stable high - level production in South American countries [1][33] - In China, corn production increased significantly in 2025/26, but the poor quality of North China corn shifted demand to Northeast corn. The slowdown in grain sales since December leaves sufficient grassroots surplus grain, posing pressure in spring [1][33] - Corn and substitute grain imports have a limited impact on domestic supply. In the demand side, the feed demand has short - term resilience but future production capacity will shrink; deep - processing consumption is not strong [1][33] - The low - inventory state of the corn market still supports prices, but the effect is weakening. Future focus should be on grain sales rhythm and policy trends, and the operation idea is mainly range - bound [1][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Since January, the domestic corn spot market has been oscillating strongly. Northern ports' spot prices rose slightly due to low inventory. Futures were slightly stronger than spot, but then turned to an oscillating pattern due to downstream concerns and policy auctions [3] 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Corn Supply Increase - In 2025/26, the US corn harvest area was 36.93 million hectares, with a yield of 11.71 tons per hectare, and a total output of 432 million tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio rose to 13.6%, and supply increased by 7 million tons compared to December's estimate. Export sales also increased significantly [6] 3.2.2 Stable High - level Production in South America - In 2025/26, Brazil's corn production was estimated to be around 131 - 139 million tons, and Argentina's was estimated to be 53 million tons. The production in both countries was generally stable, and the possibility of high - yield realization was high [10] 3.2.3 Recovery - type Production Increase in Ukraine - In 2025/26, Ukraine's corn production was estimated to be 29 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared to the previous year. However, the production increase was less than expected due to adverse weather [12] 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.3.1 Slowdown in Grain Sales and Sufficient Grassroots Surplus Grain - In 2025/26, China's corn production reached 301 million tons. The poor quality of North China corn restricted sales progress, while Northeast corn had a faster sales rate. As of January 15, the national grain sales progress was the same as the previous year, but the surplus grain was still sufficient due to increased production [16] 3.3.2 Poor Feed Consumption Expectations, Stable Deep - processing Consumption Year - on - Year - In 2026, due to low or negative profits in the pig and egg - laying chicken breeding industries, livestock and poultry inventory is expected to decline, and feed consumption will weaken. In deep - processing, starch processing profits are poor, and alcohol processing consumption has weakened [20][21] 3.3.3 Reduced Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat for Domestic Corn - Since 2025/26, the price difference between wheat and corn has been high, increasing corn's cost - effectiveness in feed. With the stable increase in domestic corn production, the demand for imported substitute grains has decreased [24] 3.3.4 Inventory Recovery in Downstream Enterprises with Limited Motivation for Further Increase - Northern port inventories have declined since late December, and Guangdong's grain inventory is still low. The raw material inventory of North China's deep - processing enterprises has increased rapidly, while that of Northeast enterprises is still low. Feed and deep - processing enterprises have limited motivation to further increase inventory [30]

Report Title - Structural Tightness Supports, Futures Near-Strong and Far-Weak - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report, dated January 9, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, corn spot prices fluctuated, with the Northeast producing area being relatively strong, North China slightly weaker, and port spot prices adjusting. Futures prices were weak first and then strong, with a significant weekly increase. The main contract C03 approached the high point in early December again. The basis of Jinzhou to C03 weakened, and the spread between C3 and C5 strengthened significantly. The near-term futures performed stronger than the spot, mainly due to the valuation repair under the high discount of futures and the continuously low level of warehouse receipts. Looking ahead, on the supply side, although this year's corn production increased, the low carry-over inventory at the beginning of the year and the poor quality of North China corn effectively absorbed the pressure of the bumper harvest in Northeast China. On the demand side, feed enterprises' inventory has reached a normal level. With continuous losses in the breeding industry and a pessimistic outlook for feed demand, feed enterprises have insufficient motivation to further increase their inventory levels. The raw material inventory of deep-processing enterprises is still at a low level but has increased month-on-month. Considering the weak downstream consumption, there is room for further replenishment in the later stage, but the intensity is also limited. From the perspective of intermediate inventory, the inventory at northern ports failed to continue to rise in late December and instead declined; the inventory at southern ports increased, but the absolute level is still low. The overall circulation inventory reflects that the situation of structural tightness has not been completely eliminated. At the same time, the auction of policy grain sources is also progressing in an orderly manner, which is conducive to supplementing the market's available grain sources. In general, the corn market is supported by the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches in the short term and is relatively resistant to decline, but the large supply-demand background is difficult to support much room for price increases. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range in the later stage. The operation strategy is to adopt a fluctuating mindset [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook 1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided 1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - Not provided 1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread - Not provided 1.4 Corn Sales Progress - Not provided 1.5 Corn Imports - Not provided 1.6 Feed and Breeding Demand - Not provided 1.7 Feed and Breeding Demand: Feed Production - Not provided 1.8 Deep-Processing Demand - Not provided 1.9 Substitutes - Not provided 1.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.11 Southern Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided 2.2 Corn Starch Spot - Not provided 2.3 Corn - Starch Spread - Not provided 2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided 2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided 2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided 3. International Corn Market Dynamics 3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided 3.2 US Corn Planting and Growth Progress - Not provided 3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided 3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided

Core Viewpoint - The current autumn grain procurement period is critical, with domestic corn market activity strong and prices rising, particularly in Northeast China, where prices have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Northeast corn prices have risen due to adverse weather conditions in key production areas, leading to higher moisture content and increased spoilage rates, necessitating imports from Northeast China [1] - The State Grain Reserve has increased its procurement efforts, stabilizing market expectations [1] - A significant reduction in corn imports, down 86.1% year-on-year to 1.85 million tons, has heightened demand for domestic corn [1] Group 2: Profitability for Farmers - Farmers in Northeast China are experiencing improved profitability from corn cultivation, with prices rising from around 2050 yuan per ton to approximately 2230 yuan per ton [2] - There is a growing sentiment among farmers to hold onto their corn in anticipation of better prices due to the rising market [2] Group 3: Regional Production Variability - While Northeast China sees increased corn production, regions like North China and the Huang-Huai region face poor harvests due to adverse weather, leading to lower quality corn entering the market [2] - High-quality corn is being purchased at around 2300 yuan per ton, while lower quality corn is sold at 2000 to 2100 yuan per ton due to spoilage [2] Group 4: Overall Corn Production and Consumption - Corn production in China is projected to exceed 300 million tons in 2025, a 2.1% increase from 2024, accounting for 42% of total grain production [3] - The favorable growing conditions in Northeast China, including higher temperatures and increased rainfall, have contributed to this increase [3] - Corn is a vital component of the feed industry, with approximately 65% to 70% of total corn consumption used for feed, and the demand remains strong due to high livestock inventory levels [3] Group 5: Market Stability - The current consumption foundation for corn is solid, supported by the domestic feed and deep processing industries, indicating stable price support [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Last week, the corn futures price was stable first and then rose, with the futures market rebounding on Friday, while the spot price in the production area remained stable with narrow fluctuations. The current grain - selling progress in the production area is faster than the same period last year, and the increased auction of imported corn effectively supplements the grain supply. Although the port inventory has rebounded, the growth rate has slowed down. Meanwhile, CGSGB has been continuously supporting the market, with a procurement volume of 450,000 tons last week and the成交 rate soaring to 67.8%. Some warehouses have stopped purchasing, and the market's expectation of a subsequent tightening of corn supply is gradually rising, providing support for the market rebound. In the short term, the corn price may continue to fluctuate strongly, but the increasing expectation of wheat auctions may suppress the corn price [7][72]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Price Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the domestic corn futures price was stable first and then rose, with the main contract C2603 closing at 2,230 yuan/ton at the night - session close on Friday, up 1%; C2605 closed at 2,265 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The CBOT corn futures main contract fluctuated strongly, closing at 449.50 cents per bushel at the end of last week, down 0.33% [5][13][17]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 25, the national weekly average price of corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the price center continued to move up over the weekend. The corn price in the Northeast production area was relatively stable, with the price of second - class corn in Harbin and Changchun remaining the same as the previous week. The corn price in the North China production area was stable, and the purchase price of Shouguang Jinyu Corn in Shandong was the same as the previous week. The corn price in the sales area and ports was stable first and then rose, with the self - pick - up price of second - class corn at Shekou Port remaining the same as the previous week, and the flat - hatch price of second - class corn at Bayuquan Port up 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][23]. - **Basis**: As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - main contract was 78 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton weaker than the previous week [26]. 3.2. Last Week's Related Information Review - Ukraine had harvested 10.895 million hectares of grains (including legumes) as of December 18, accounting for 94% of the planned harvest area, with a yield of 56.576 million tons and an average yield of 5.19 tons per hectare. - The expected total output of Brazilian corn in the 2025/26 season is 142.875 million tons, lower than the previous forecast but higher than that in the 2024/25 season. - The US Department of Agriculture will not issue more agricultural aid beyond the announced $12 billion plan. - Russia's total output of grains and legumes in 2025 will reach 137 million tons (net weight), with the wheat output expected to reach 9 million tons. - As of December 17, the planting area of Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season accounted for 69.5% of the total expected area, up from 59.2% a week ago. - Argentina exported 1,584,095.64 tons of corn in November. - CGSGB's corn procurement in various regions had different transaction rates last week. - Russia's agricultural organizations sold 62.7 million tons of grains from January to November 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%. - From December 24 to 30, 2025, Russia's corn benchmark price was $205.5 per ton, and the export tariff was 0 rubles per ton. - The EU's agricultural product trade surplus in October 2025 increased significantly to 6.4 billion euros, a month - on - month increase of 18% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. - As of December 22, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 14.26 million tons, a 32.9% decrease from the same period last year. - As of December 19, the planting of Brazil's first - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 82.0% completed. - Russia's grain exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 53 - 55 million tons, the same as the five - year average. - ComBio expects its revenue to triple in the next five years. - The estimated output of Brazilian and Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, higher than the USDA's forecast. - Brazil exported 4.426 million tons of corn from December 1 - 19. - As of December 23, the planting progress of Argentine corn in the 2025/26 season was 77.7%. - Kazakhstan exported 3.9 million tons of grains from September to December 19, 2025, higher than the same period last year. - From February 15 to June 30, 2026, Russia's export tariff rate quota for wheat, mixed wheat, barley, and corn is 20 million tons, and the rye export quota is 0 tons. - There will be scattered showers in Brazil's major corn - producing areas in the future. - As of December 22, Ukraine's actual wheat, corn, and sunflower oil exports were far lower than the contract volume. - Russia exported 3.389 million tons of grains from December 1 - 20, a year - on - year increase of 14%. - As of December 24, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 14.5 million tons, a 31.8% decrease from the same period last year. - As of December 17, Argentine farmers pre - sold 7.91 million tons of corn in the 2025/26 season. - In the 2025/26 season, the EU's corn imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, with the shares of the US and Brazil increasing significantly and the share of Ukraine decreasing significantly [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][35]. 3.3. Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of December 25, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 29.88 days, down 0.1 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.68%. The inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly this period, and most feed enterprises maintained rolling replenishment [39]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory**: As of December 24, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 3.378 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.26% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.66% [43]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption**: From December 18 to 24, 2025, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed a total of 1.397 million tons of corn, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous week. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [49]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation**: From December 18 to 24, 2025, the corn processing volume, starch output, and startup rate of corn starch enterprises all increased month - on - month. The total corn processing volume of national major corn starch processing enterprises was 635,300 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous week; the corn starch output was 330,800 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the startup rate was 60.46%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points from the previous week [54]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation**: Recently, the profits of corn deep - processing enterprises have been continuously shrinking. As of last Friday, the hedging profit of corn starch by - products in Jilin was - 90 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 3 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was 1 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [58]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In November 2025, China imported 560,000 tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons, an increase of 87.5%. From January to November 2025, China imported 1.85 million tons of corn, a year - on - year decrease of 11.47 million tons, a decrease of 86.1% [62]. 3.4. Related Products Situation - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,711 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The mainstream transaction prices in different regions had different changes [67]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price first fell and then rose. The national average pig slaughter price was 11.44 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.67% [71]. 3.5. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Currently, the market is dominated by capital sentiment, and the long - short game has intensified. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. - **Arbitrage**: None. - **Options**: None [8][73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that corn prices in Jinzhou Port and Northeast production areas are showing a strong upward trend, with inventory levels at the northern ports at their lowest in three years [12][13][20] - From November to December, the average purchasing price of corn at Jinzhou Port increased from 2085 CNY/ton to 2250 CNY/ton, a rise of 7.91%, while the average price in the Northeast rose from 2031 CNY/ton to 2169 CNY/ton, an increase of 6.77% [13][12] - The decrease in corn collection volume at northern ports is greater than the decrease in the volume shipped south, indicating a tighter supply-demand relationship [12][20] Group 2 - The total volume of corn shipped from the northern six ports to southern regions was approximately 5.03 million tons from October to November, a slight decrease of 1.75% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to high procurement costs [14][17] - The inventory of corn at the northern six ports from October to December was significantly lower than the same period last year, with a notable decline in November and December [16][18] - As of December 19, the corn inventory at the northern six ports was 215,000 tons, marking the lowest level in three years, with a slow accumulation rate due to various factors including favorable storage conditions and high-quality grain flowing into the North China market [20][18]