1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The corn market is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Due to high yields, imported corn supplements the market supply, and the overall supply is sufficient. The price difference between corn and wheat remains in the substitutable range, with wheat being widely used as a substitute for corn. Alongside the substitution of millet and other grains, these factors suppress the corn price. The planting area of new crops is high, and the expected yield per unit is good, so the new crop yield is still expected to be abundant. The lowest planting cost of the new crop on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift downward. Under multiple negative factors, it is expected that c2509 will oscillate downward, and the later price center is expected to shift downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Corn Supply - **Supply**: The domestic corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the growth of new - season corn is good. The current main variable is the weather during the growth period, especially rainfall. The NDVI data shows that the growth of corn in Northeast China is significantly better than in previous years, while in North China, although affected by extreme weather, the growth is still around the annual average. Overall, the expected yield per unit of corn in the main production areas is good [9][10]. - **Import**: The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the total corn import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The USDA estimates that China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season will be 4 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][19][20]. - **Substitutes**: Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes is decreasing. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is near parity, and wheat has a high cost - effectiveness, exerting great pressure on the feed - use substitution of corn. In June 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 23.83% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 32.71% year - on - year [29][30]. Demand - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, the parent - stock of white - feather broilers, and the hatching volume of laying - hen chicks are all at high levels, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs is at a low level, the profit of broiler breeding is seasonally rising, and the profit of laying - hen breeding has deteriorated [34][35][36]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has rebounded to a neutral level, with Shandong and Heilongjiang showing relatively high rates. The corn starch production has also increased, but the downstream提货量 is low, and the production profit is severely in the red. The consumption of corn by corn alcohol enterprises has slowed down, and the operating rate has reached a new low [55][56]. Inventory - **Corn Trade and Inventory**: The inventory of trade channels and downstream users is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 8, the inventory of the four northern ports continued to decline, and the domestic trade inventory of southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises continued to decrease, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises continued to reach a new high in the past eight years [83][84][85]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of corn 01, 05, 09 contracts at Jinzhou Port and the basis data of starch 01, 05, 09 contracts in Jilin area on August 14, 2025 [117][119][121]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread data of corn 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and the spread data of starch 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, as well as the spread data between corn and starch 01, 05, 09 contracts [127][128][129]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 14, 2025, the corn warehouse receipt quantity was 222,298 hands, and the corn starch warehouse receipt quantity was 25,000 hands [140]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - **Traders**: For procurement management, build inventory and seek to buy corn at low prices. Use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option at an entry price of 8. For inventory management, sell corn at high prices and use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: For procurement management, when in need of corn raw materials and worried about price increases, use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option. For inventory management, when the raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4].

研究所 新粮上市将近 玉米延续弱势 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年08月17日 3 研究所 研究所 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 1 周度分析与展望 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 周度观点 研究所 过去一周玉米现货总体偏弱，山东地区上量偏少，企业前半周压价明显，但后期压价力度减弱，现货有所企稳，东北地区受拍 卖影响亦表现为弱势，南北港口因库存继续去化，现货相对较强。期货先涨后跌，周线收出长上影线。基差小幅走弱，受主力 移仓影响，C2511合约明显弱于其他合约。基本面来看，随着储备粮拍卖继续进行及新粮上市将近，持粮贸易商出货意愿上升 ，供应压力增强。需求端来看，饲料生产尽管有增长，但生猪去产能、降均重政策打压饲料需求预期，同时小麦对玉米替代优 势仍存，饲料企业对玉米采购需求受抑制。同时深加工端利润仍然不佳，也对消费形成负面影响。综合来看，后期玉米供需趋 于宽松，市场维持震荡寻底的格局。操作上，震荡偏空思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS 1 周度分析与展望 3 国内玉米市场动态 4 玉米淀粉市场动态 1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn 12 - contract has limited downside space below 400 cents per bushel as the market price is below the cost and the yield per unit may be revised down later. The domestic corn spot price is expected to continue to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions, high warehouse receipts, lower planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 01 corn contract is expected to oscillate weakly and may fall to 2150 yuan per ton. The starch market will follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) August report raised the yield per unit and area of US corn, resulting in a record - high production. The US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, but it is significantly lower than the cost of 470 cents per bushel. As of August 15, 3.28 million tons of corn were auctioned, with 1.24 million tons sold, a transaction rate of 38%. The domestic corn spot price continues to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn, high 09 warehouse receipts, lower domestic planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The market expects that the price of North China corn will likely fall below 2200 yuan per ton when it is abundantly available in October, and the 01 corn contract may oscillate weakly and fall to 2150 yuan per ton [4]. - **Starch**: The starch factory operating rate has increased, but downstream demand remains weak. Although the corn spot price has declined, the starch spot price has also fallen, and starch factories are still suffering large losses. The operating rate of North China starch enterprises will decline later, and the North China starch price will continue to fall with the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 11 and 01 starch contracts are expected to follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the US corn 12 - contract, consider buying below 400 cents per bushel. For the domestic 01 corn contract, consider buying around 2150 yuan per ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the 01 and 11 corn and starch contracts. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The August report raised the area and yield per unit of US corn, causing the price to break below 400 cents per bushel for the 12 - contract. The import tariffs on US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has increased. As of August 5, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased, and the US ethanol production declined. Although the US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, the downside space is limited as the yield per unit may be revised down later [8][15]. - **Domestic Market - Corn**: Feed enterprise corn inventories have decreased compared to the previous period but are higher than the same period last year. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and their inventories have also decreased and are expected to continue to decline next week. Both the northern port corn inventories and southern port grain inventories have decreased [19][20][23]. - **Domestic Market - Starch**: The deep - processing operating rate has increased, with the national corn processing volume reaching 576,000 tons and starch production at 289,200 tons this week. The operating rate is 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. The profit loss has narrowed due to the decline in North China corn spot prices, stable starch spot prices, and strong by - product prices. Starch inventories have increased but are expected to decline next week [26][27]. - **Substitute - Wheat**: The wheat price is basically stable, with the North China delivered - to - factory price around 2450 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened, the North China corn price has declined, the Northeast corn price has remained stable, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract has increased [33]. - **Livestock and Poultry - Related**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing - Starch Downstream Consumption**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **US Corn**: As of August 7, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.49 million tons, and the cumulative export volume was 63.13 million tons. The weekly export volume to China was 0 tons, and the cumulative export volume to China was 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In June, the domestic corn import volume was 160,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 790,000 tons, compared with 1.105 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Corn and Starch**: As of August 14, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week and an increase of 2.07% compared to the same period last year. From August 7th to 14th, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62% from the previous week. As of August 8, the northern four - port corn inventory was 1.774 million tons, a decrease of 131,000 tons from the previous week, and the four - port shipping volume was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port decreased by 184,000 tons to 1.544 million tons [19][20][23]. - **Starch Market**: From August 7th to 14th, the national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, and starch production was 289,200 tons, with an operating rate of 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 90 yuan, an increase of 17 yuan from last week, and in Shandong, it was - 90 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan from last week. As of August 13, the corn starch inventory was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 1.6% and an annual increase of 20.3% [26][27]. - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing Downstream**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If the estimated increase in corn production in the US, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina is realized, the global corn market will remain relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to trade at low levels [2][34]. - In China, the area of new - season corn is slightly increasing, and the weather has been generally favorable so far, but there are concerns about drought in some regions. The supply of old - season corn is tight, but there are supplements from wheat and imported corn auctions. The price of domestic corn is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but its medium - term trend will face pressure due to the approaching new - season corn harvest and lower production costs [2][34]. - In terms of operation, the old - season contracts should be treated with a range - bound approach, while a bearish view is recommended for the new - season contracts [2][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Since July, domestic corn futures and spot prices have declined. The start of the auction of imported corn by Sinograin loosened the expectation of a tight supply pattern, leading to a wave of selling by spot grain holders. Later in the month, the market sentiment stabilized, and the spot price showed a certain rebound. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts first declined and then rebounded [4]. 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 Strong Expectation of New - Season Corn Yield Increase in the US - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated that the US corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 95.2 million acres, with a yield per acre of 181 bushels and a total output of 15.705 billion bushels. The year - end carry - over inventory is 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the previous year but lower than last month's estimate. The expansion of the planting area provides a large margin of safety for supply, and the current trend of yield per acre is in a good state, with favorable weather outlook, resulting in significant pressure for a bumper harvest [6]. 2.2 Steady - to - Increasing Future Yields in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's July estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 was 132 million tons, with exports of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 91 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Argentina's output in 2024/25 was 50 million tons, and in 2025/26, it is predicted to be 53 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The predicted output for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly, but this prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [9]. 2.3 Expected Recovery and Increase in New - Season Corn Yield in Ukraine - The USDA estimates that Ukraine's corn output in 2025/26 will be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons (13.8%) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a slight increase in area and recovery of yield per acre. The final year - end carry - over inventory is 60,000 tons, recovering from the previous year. Since June, precipitation in major producing areas has been low, and the NDVI index has been slightly lower, so future weather changes need to be monitored [11]. 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Planting Area and Steady - to - Increasing Production - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates that China's corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), an increase of 132 thousand hectares (1.98 million mu) or 0.3% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), and the total output will be 296.16 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. Overall, domestic corn production is expected to increase slightly. Since sowing, the climate suitability for corn has been generally good, but since July, precipitation has been low in the core producing areas in the Northeast and the Huang - Huai region, and drought pressure has emerged in some areas, so the impact of weather on yield per acre needs to be monitored [16]. 3.2 Decrease in Direct Corn Imports and Sinograin's Imported Corn Auction as an Important Supplement - China's corn imports have remained at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 2024/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.68 million tons, a significant decrease compared to 21.63 million tons in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that imports will increase in the second half of 2025, but the arrival may be after September. Since July 1st, Sinograin has started the auction of reserve imported corn, with a total turnover of less than 1 million tons, and the future supply is uncertain [18][20]. 3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output - In the first half of 2025, the total output of industrial feed in China was 158.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased, while that of concentrated feed decreased. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding scales is expected to support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [23]. 3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - Due to weak macro - economic growth and low consumer confidence, the consumption of downstream products of deep - processing enterprises has been sluggish, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of corn in the deep - processing sector. Since 2024/25, the corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises has decreased by about 4% compared to the previous year. In the corn starch production, which accounts for the largest proportion of corn consumption in the deep - processing sector, the consumption of corn starch has decreased significantly, leading to high inventory, poor processing profit, and low operating rate. It is expected that the deep - processing of corn starch will not improve significantly [24][27]. 3.5 Wheat Still Has an Advantage over Corn, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Auction of Feed Rice - Since March, wheat has shown an advantage in substituting for corn, and feed enterprises in North and Central China have adjusted their formulas. The import of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley has decreased significantly, and it is unlikely to increase suddenly in the future. However, the auction of aged rice is an uncertain factor [29].

Report Title - "Uptake Declines, Corn Stabilizes and Rebounds — Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Corn spot prices showed signs of stabilization last week, with the selling pace of grain holders slowing down, a significant reduction in the number of trucks arriving at the doorsteps of deep - processing enterprises in major producing areas, and more enterprises raising prices. Futures prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the basis weakened slightly. This week, the transaction rate of imported corn auctions decreased significantly, and the market also began to expect a slowdown in the auction pace, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. Looking ahead, domestic corn inventories and southern imported grain inventories have been declining continuously, indicating that the overall supply pressure is not large. Grain holders have largely digested the negative impact of imported corn auctions, and the market may re - enter a stage of low supply volume. On the demand side, feed production still maintains good growth, but due to poor breeding profits and the impact of wheat substitution, the replenishment demand for corn from feed enterprises is suppressed. Deep - processing profits continue to be in the red, the de - stocking of finished product inventories is slow, and the operating rate remains at a low level, providing insufficient support for corn demand. Overall, as the selling sentiment on the spot side stabilizes, the short - term bottom support for corn has strengthened, but due to insufficient demand - side stimulation, there is limited upside potential for corn prices. The recommended operation is to be bullish in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. International Corn Market Dynamics 1.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided [10] 1.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided [14] 1.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided [19] 1.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided [27] 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided [33] 2.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - Not provided [42] 2.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Price Differences - Not provided [48] 2.4 Corn Selling Progress - Not provided [54] 2.5 Corn Imports - Not provided [58] 2.6 Feed and Aquaculture Demand - Not provided [66] 2.7 Feed and Aquaculture Demand: Feed Production - Not provided [75] 2.8 Deep - processing Demand - Not provided [76] 2.9 Substitutes - Not provided [80] 2.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided [86] 2.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided [91] 2.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided [92] 3. Corn Starch Market Dynamics 3.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided [97] 3.2 Corn Starch Spot - A table shows data from July 7 to July 18, including prices such as 2700, 2760, 2790, etc. [107] 3.3 Corn - Starch Price Difference - Not provided [114] 3.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided [122] 3.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided [128] 3.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided [132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. With the continuous consumption of surplus grains and the decline in imports, a pattern of tight supply in the short - term has emerged. - Imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn has enhanced the substitution effect in the feed field, suppressing the upward momentum of corn prices. - Downstream procurement remains cautious. Livestock enterprises, restricted by low profits, mostly replenish stocks as needed, while deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. Overall, consumption has limited ability to boost prices. - From a technical perspective, the main corn futures contract is in an upward channel but is under pressure from the upper edge of the channel and has been testing support levels downward. Without a trend - driving force in supply and demand, the futures price is expected to gradually decline to the key integer level of 2,300 yuan/ton, which may trigger a technical rebound at that time [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Corn Market Structure - As of the end of June, the corn index price first rose and then fell. After reaching a low of 2,300 yuan/ton at the end of May, it rebounded, tested the previous high of 2,380 yuan/ton but failed to break through, and then declined again to test the support at 2,300 yuan/ton. It is expected to form a double - top structure. - The corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. The decreasing inventory in domestic main producing areas supports traders' reluctance to sell, but affected by the wheat substitution effect and policy - grain auctions, the price is oscillating downward. - Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in weak consumption. Livestock enterprises purchase as needed due to low profits, and corn deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. The main corn futures contract is in an upward channel, and in the short - term, it is retesting the support around 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - The overall term - structure shows that the September contract is at a discount to the January contract, and the January contract is at a discount to the May contract [8]. Market行情Analysis Supply Side - Global corn supply and demand tightened according to the June USDA report. The old - crop exports were increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending stocks were correspondingly reduced. For the new - crop, the ending stocks were also reduced by 50 million bushels. The new - crop ending stocks were lower than expected, and the report was slightly bullish. The expected 2025/2026 US corn production is 15.82 billion bushels, with a planted area of 95.3 million acres and a yield of 181 bushels per acre, remaining unchanged from May. The expected ending stocks are 1.75 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast and the Reuters average. Globally, the 2025/2026 production is increased to 1.266 billion tons, and the ending stocks are 275.236 million tons, which is also bullish [11]. - Tariff policies have tightened imports, which is beneficial to the confidence of the domestic corn market. Although the overall import of agricultural products from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import sources since 2018. The proportion of US - imported corn and wheat in China's total imports is less than 20%, so the impact of tariffs is relatively limited, but the impact on US - imported sorghum, which accounts for over 50%, may be relatively large. In 2025, China's corn imports have dropped significantly. From January to May, the cumulative import was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%. Importing US corn is not cost - effective [15][16]. - Corn is in a policy - sensitive period, and the expectation of imported corn auctions has been fulfilled. On July 1, imported corn was auctioned in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a transaction rate of 97%. On July 4, the second auction was held nationwide through public bidding, with a larger scale. The transaction rate was 85.95%. The imported corn supply has supplemented the market, but the future frequency, scale, and price of auctions will affect the market [21]. - The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn may lead to a decline in corn prices. Corn is in a supply vacuum period, and new wheat prices are at 1.21 - 1.23 yuan per catty. The wheat - corn price difference in Henan is - 40 yuan/ton and in Hebei is - 5 yuan/ton. Wheat is more cost - effective, so many enterprises are using wheat to replace corn in the feed field [22]. Demand Side - The reduction of pig production capacity is slow. As of May 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 3.6% higher than the normal level. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan per head. The pig market may face double pressure from cost and supply. Although there is a rigid demand for feed, there is little room for growth [23]. - Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss situation, which limits the demand for corn. Due to weak macroeconomic growth and poor downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing enterprises is not good. As of July 5, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 51.57%, the corn processing volume was 789,000 tons, and the processing profit was - 62.97 yuan per ton. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing [37]. Market Outlook The current situation of the corn market is as described in the core viewpoints, with a tight supply pattern in the short - term, supplemented by imported corn auctions, and a limited ability of consumption to boost prices. The futures price is expected to decline to 2,300 yuan/ton and may rebound technically [39].

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余粮趋于紧张 玉米支撑较强 玉米 2025 年 06 月 29 日 主要结论 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米半年报 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 国际方面，主要玉米生产国产量预计增加，使得国际玉米市场偏宽松，全球 玉米价格预计维持底部震荡格局。国内方面，目前余粮继续减少，各环节显性库 存快速下降，且低于去年同期水平，陈粮供应逐步趋紧的预期逐步走向现实；需 求端，尽管深加工行业的玉米消耗量受到经济增长乏力及加工利润偏差影响而减 少，但由于养殖规模恢复，饲料生产增长可观，使得玉米总的潜在需求较上年增 加。24/25 年度剩下时间里，旧作国产玉米远不足以满足国内的需要，而进口、 替代及政策性粮源供应将成为补足缺口的关键。从进口来看，目前内外价差较高， 利润角度有利于刺激进口，后期进口预计较上年有明显增加，但考虑到配额总量 的控制，进口体量也难放大的很高的水平；替代方面，华北相对玉米有较大的替 代优势，但这种优势尚未在其他地区大面积显现；政策性粮源方面，市场一直关 注进口玉米及陈化稻的，目前市场传闻政策性粮源投放体量较大，但最终对玉米 市场的影响取决于拍卖价格。对于新作来看，若未来不出现较大天气风险，预计 产 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's corn prices are under pressure due to high yield expectations and financial stress on farmers, with export pace being a key variable influencing future price trends [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Financial Pressure - Optimistic yield expectations for Brazil's second-season corn in 2025 are projected to exceed 96 million tons, driven by favorable weather conditions [2]. - Farmers are facing dual financial challenges, leading to an inclination to sell corn early to cover costs, as they anticipate rising soybean prices [2]. - The large area planted with corn and limited storage capacity are contributing to increased selling pressure, with significant sales expected unless prices fall below break-even levels [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - Domestic demand is transitioning between summer crops and second-season crops, with stable feed and ethanol consumption insufficient to absorb the supply pressure of over 90 million tons [3]. - An estimated export volume of over 40 million tons is necessary for supply-demand balance, with USDA predicting a corn production of 131 million tons and exports of 43 million tons for the 2025/26 season [3]. - Current corn prices at the Chicago Board of Trade have not shown significant increases, and export prices are hovering between 67 to 71 Brazilian Reais per bag, indicating a wait-and-see approach in the market [3]. Group 3: Future Considerations and Risks - Analysts expect a significant acceleration in port collection rhythm starting in July, with potential international market disruptions possibly benefiting Brazilian corn exports [4]. - The Brazilian corn market faces risks from increased domestic supply and logistical issues that could impact production and pricing [4]. - Farmers are advised to monitor climate changes, exchange rate fluctuations, and global market demand to adjust their sales strategies accordingly [4].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 后期供应趋紧 震荡偏多对待 玉米 2025 年 05 月 25 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，全球主要生产国玉米播种面积较上年增加，其中美国产量增 加尤为明显，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境。国内方 面，目前基层余粮基本售尽，同时进口玉米及替代性谷物收缩，国内玉米供应偏 紧，贸易持粮主体基于后期偏紧的预期有一定惜售心态。需求端来看，随着养殖 业规模的恢复，饲料产量同比增加明显。但由于小麦对玉米的价差偏低，小麦部 分进入饲料领域，使得饲料中玉米使用比例下降，削弱了饲料产量增加对玉米需 求的拉动效果。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外部贸易环境复杂、居民收入 增速放缓等多重要不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差，深加工利润不佳，行业开 机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。库存方面，目前南北方港口库存开始下降，库 存压力也在减轻。总体来看，后期玉米市场供应趋紧，下方面支撑较为坚实，但 小麦玉米价差偏低、陈稻拍卖及进口放松预期仍会压制玉米的上方空间。操作上， 震荡偏多思路。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...