| 指标 | | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 升貼水 | 对主力基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锦州港平舱价 | 2220 | 0 | 0 | -21 | | | 鲅鱼圈港平舱价 | 2215 | 0 | 0 | -26 | | | 蛇口港市场价 | 2370 | 0 | | | | | 黑龙江省-哈尔滨 | 2030 | 0 | -195 | -16 | | | 黑龙江省-绥化 | 2020 | 0 | -195 | -26 | | | 吉林省-长春 | 2110 | 0 | -130 | -1 | | | 辽宁省-沈阳 | 2140 | 0 | -80 | -21 | | 玉米现货 | 辽宁省-铁岭 | 2130 | 0 | -80 | -31 | | | 内蒙古-通辽 | 2140 | 20 | -100 | -1 | | | 内蒙古-赤峰 | 2120 | 30 | -100 | -21 | | | 河北省-邯郸 | 2210 | 0 | - | - | | | 河北省-石家庄 | 2210 | 0 | | | | | 河南省-郑州 | 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, due to farmers' reluctance to sell and some buyers' need to replenish high - quality corn stocks, spot prices in the production areas are firm, and the futures market rebounds. However, with the expected post - ponement of selling pressure and the lack of strong upward drivers before the full release of supply pressure, the short - term rebound is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent farmers' selling rhythm and traders' stock - purchasing behavior [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On November 13th, the flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port was 2,200 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), in Bayuquan Port was 2,205 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and in Shekou Port was 2,330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan). The prices in different regions within provinces such as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia also showed various changes. The corn starch spot price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan/ton, and in Henan was 2,514 yuan/ton. The wheat spot price in Anhui was 2,504 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 2,509 yuan/ton [5]. - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the corn main contract was 2,188 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2,490 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The closing price of US corn was 435.50 cents per bushel, the import duty - paid price of US corn was 2,180.40 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of importing US corn was 139.60 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spread Data**: The starch - corn spread of the main continuous contract was 302, and the starch - corn spread of the Jilin spot average price was 460 [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The corn inventory in the northern ports was 85.2 million tons, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.3 million tons, the foreign trade corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 19.4 million tons, the deep - processing corn inventory in the Northeast was 184.4 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory in North China was 68.8 million tons [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The Northeast production area still faces the pressure of concentrated supply, and the low - quality damp grain in North China also has storage pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the selling pressure in the production areas from December to January. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the per - unit yield is good, and an overall bumper harvest is expected. The import of grains is restricted by policies, and the supply of imported grains is decreasing [5]. - **Demand**: According to the data of the Feed Industry Association, in September 2025, the national industrial feed output was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by enterprises was 33.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4 percentage points. In the short term, the high inventory of livestock and poultry is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Feed enterprises have a low inventory and a rigid demand for replenishing corn stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have a seasonal demand for building stocks, and traders have a strong willingness to purchase [5]. 3.3 Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed in the northern ports is slow, and the corn inventory in the southern ports has rebounded from a low level. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory has increased. With the supplement of new - season corn, the ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprises have a low inventory, and deep - processing corn has a seasonal inventory increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For corn, as the US corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, but the recent rise in US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In the domestic market, the main producing areas are still releasing sales pressure, but as multiple market entities build storage and the central reserve increases purchases, the circulation of grain sources slows down, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry's operating rate is rising due to improved processing profits, increasing supply - side pressure. However, downstream orders and pick - ups have slowed down slightly, and inventory has increased marginally. The corn starch market has oscillated and risen in tandem with the corn market, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 86 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 966186 hands, down 10833 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands, up 118210 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66351 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The futures closing price of the active contract is 2479 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the monthly spread (1 - 3) is - 7 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 226343 hands, up 261 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 0 hands, up 58773 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 12453 hands [2]. Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 426.75 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total holding volume is 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 contracts, down 15017 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2243.33 yuan/ton, up 4.8 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2036.72 yuan/ton, up 1.2 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 42 US dollars/ton; the basis of the main contract is 79.33 yuan/ton, down 10.2 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2510 yuan/ton; in Weifang is 2750 yuan/ton; in Shijiazhuang is 2680 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract is 31 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 524 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2485.33 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 322 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 235 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 427.11 million tons, up 1.85 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 74.2 tons, up 13.5 tons; at northern ports is 122 tons, up 14 tons; the monthly import volume is 6 tons, up 2 tons [2]. - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 12780 tons, down 2020 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 113.8 tons, up 1 ton; the weekly increase rate is 0.89%, the monthly increase rate is 0.89%, and the year - on - year increase rate is 33.26% [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly output is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 24.88 days, up 0.78 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 138.18 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing: The processing profit in Shandong is 42 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Hebei is 124 yuan/ton; in Jilin is 94 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is down 1.63%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 62.77%, up 3.91% [2]. Option Market - For corn, the 20 - day historical volatility is 9.88%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.66%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 8.53%, up 0.58%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.52%, up 0.57% [2]. Industry News - The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts that the global grain production in 2025 will reach a record 2.99 billion tons, a 4.4% increase from 2024. All major grain productions will increase, with corn having the largest increase and rice the smallest. Corn and rice production are expected to hit new highs [2]. - As of November 2nd, the US corn harvest is 83% complete, up from 72% a week ago [2].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily" and is from the Agricultural Products Research Center of ITC Futures Research Institute, written by Huang Xianglan on November 6, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Market Data Summary Spot Market - Corn spot prices in various regions show different trends. For example, the price in Henan - Zhengzhou increased by 20 yuan to 2220 yuan, while the price in Jilin - Changchun decreased by 10 yuan to 2060 yuan. Corn starch spot prices in Jilin remained at 2550 yuan, and wheat spot prices in Anhui remained at 2517 yuan [5] Futures Market - The closing price of the corn main contract was 2115 yuan, down 5 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract was 2420 yuan, up 8 yuan. The closing price of US corn was 430.75 cents per bushel, with an estimated profit of 96.03 yuan per ton for imported US corn [5] Spread and Inventory Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) was 305, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average) was 490. North Port corn inventory was 852 thousand tons, and Guangdong Port's domestic and foreign trade corn inventories were 193 thousand tons and 194 thousand tons respectively. Deep - processing corn inventories in the Northeast and North China were 1.926 million tons and 685 thousand tons respectively [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure, and there is also pressure to store poor - quality damp grain in North China. The 2025/2026 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is stable or slightly decreasing, the yield per unit is good, and there is an overall expectation of a bumper harvest. Imported grain supply is shrinking due to policy restrictions [5] Demand - In the short - term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Feed enterprises have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, but they tend to lower prices for low - quality grain [5] Group 4: Inventory Situation - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, and the corn inventory at South Ports has rebounded from a low level. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in an inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventories are at a low level, and deep - processing corn inventories are seasonally accumulating [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - In the short - term, North Port prices are relatively firm, but both futures and spot prices will face selling pressure tests later. The market is expected to show a volatile bottom - building trend. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of traders' grain purchases and policy changes [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the corn industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, after the production increase in South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, the production estimates of the Northern Hemisphere countries like the US and Ukraine have increased again. The global corn market remains relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to run at a low level [1][30]. - Domestically, the new - season corn production is generally expected to increase, and the cost has decreased. The market anticipates significant listing pressure later, so grain - purchasing entities are relatively cautious in procurement. Although the price difference between wheat and corn has been repaired recently, and feed enterprises may adjust the corn usage ratio back, the motivation to significantly increase inventory is limited due to the low profits in the breeding industry and the policy - guided capacity reduction. In the deep - processing sector, although the processing profits of some local enterprises have been repaired, the high finished - product inventory restricts the initiative to significantly increase inventory. The current visible inventory at the north - south ports is low, with some restocking space later. According to the general seasonal pattern, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China will accelerate in November, increasing market pressure, and domestic corn may show a weak and volatile pattern [1][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since October, the domestic spot price of corn has dropped significantly. In North China, due to long - term rainfall during the harvest period, the corn moisture content is high, and the storage is difficult.潮粮 is mainly sold to the deep - processing sector, and enterprises have taken the opportunity to lower prices. In Northeast China, the harvest season has arrived, with a strong production increase expectation and reduced planting costs, and the grass - roots have a good attitude towards selling grain. On the demand side, the breeding profit has continued to deteriorate, the feed demand expectation has worsened, and the deep - processing operation rate is low, providing insufficient support for corn. The futures price has dropped but performed better than the spot price overall. After mid - October, it rebounded with the support of the State Reserve's grain purchase. The basis of the northern port corn to C2511 has decreased from a high level and returned to the normal range [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis - **US New - Season Corn Supply and Demand are Loose**: According to the USDA's September supply - demand report, the 2025/26 US corn harvest area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.72 tons per hectare, and the total output is 427 million tons. The feed consumption is 155 million tons, the food and processing demand is 177 million tons, the export is 75.57 million tons, and the year - end carry - over inventory is 536 million tons. Although the total supply has increased, the carry - over inventory has decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 13.14%, still the highest since 2020/2021 [5]. - **The Production of Brazil and Argentina is Expected to Remain at a High Level**: According to the USDA's September estimate, the 2024/25 Brazilian corn output is 135 million tons, with an export of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 93 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. The CONAB's latest estimate shows that the 2025/26 Brazilian corn output is expected to reach 138 million tons, about 3 million tons less than the previous year. In Argentina, the 2024/25 output is estimated at 50 million tons, with a slight decrease in export and a slight increase in consumption, and a small increase in inventory. The 2025/26 output is predicted to be 53 million tons, with an export of 37 million tons and a carry - over inventory of 3.18 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The 2025/26 output is currently predicted to be generally stable, but the prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [8]. - **The New - Season Corn Output in Ukraine is Expected to Increase Recoveringly**: According to the USDA's estimate, the 2025/26 Ukrainian corn output is expected to be 32 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons or 19.4% compared to the previous year. The increase is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield per unit. The final end - of - period carry - over inventory is 1.14 million tons, recovering compared to the previous year. The growth situation of Ukrainian corn is good, and the prospect of production increase is clear [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis - **The New - Season Output is Expected to Increase, with High Listing Pressure**: According to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the 2025/26 national corn output is expected to reach 296 million tons, an increase of more than 1 million tons compared to the previous year, mainly due to the increase in yield per unit. Folk surveys also tend to predict an increase in production, with some estimating an increase of 10 million tons by the end of the year. Overall, due to good lighting conditions, the expectation of a full - year production increase is basically undisputed. In North China, the corn quality is poor due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period, while in Northeast China, the weather has been good, and the grain quality has been significantly improved. At the beginning of the new - season corn listing in 2025, the sales progress in many places in Northeast China was faster than the same period of the previous year. However, considering that the peak listing period of new - season corn in Northeast China is usually after "freezing" and there is a bumper harvest this year, the impact of the autumn grain listing in the north may have just begun. The purchase prices of the State Reserve are generally slightly lower than last year, matching the cost decrease. Currently, both the State Reserve and downstream grain - using enterprises have a cautious purchasing attitude [13]. - **The Price Difference between Wheat and Corn has Increased, and the Corn Usage Ratio has Rebounded**: Since October, the wheat price has risen slightly, while the North China corn price has been suppressed by the new - season listing. The price difference between wheat and corn has increased rapidly, and wheat has lost its substitution advantage over corn considering the protein difference. From the statistics of the Feed Industry Association, the corn addition ratio in compound feed has stabilized in August and rebounded in September. If the price difference remains in the later period, the feed industry may gradually adjust back the corn usage ratio. However, the lack of confidence in future feed consumption growth in the industry restricts the feed enterprises' inventory - building enthusiasm. The pig and egg - laying industries are in a loss state, and the expectation of capacity reduction restricts the feed enterprises' initiative to build inventory [15][18]. - **The Raw Material Cost has Decreased, and the Deep - Processing Profit has Improved**: In October, the starch processing profit has seasonally rebounded due to the decrease in raw material cost caused by the new - season corn listing. However, the current processing profit is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period, limiting the increase in the operation rate. The processing profit of alcohol enterprises has also been significantly repaired in October, mainly in Henan Province. The profit increase in Henan is due to the high moisture content and poor quality of new - season corn caused by continuous rainfall, which can only be used for alcohol production. The raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has rapidly rebounded in October, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that enterprises lack the initiative to significantly increase inventory [20][22]. - **The Inventory in the Circulation Link is Still Low but will Increase Seasonally Later**: The inventory at the northern ports has slightly rebounded to 1 million tons, with a significant increase in the arrival and shipment volume. As the new - season corn harvest in Northeast China progresses, the port inventory will increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period, mainly due to the large arrival of imported barley. For corn, the domestic - trade corn inventory remains low, while the foreign - trade corn inventory has increased significantly due to the increase in arrival [24].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain harvest is in the second half, with significant pressure from increased production in Northeast China and damaged grain quality due to mold in North China. Demand is strong, and there may be a shortage of high - quality corn in the later period. It is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality wet grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - Corn main contract 2601 oscillated and stabilized. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The flat - hatch price of corn in Bayuquan rose from 2150 yuan/ton to around 2180 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port remained stable at around 2310 yuan/ton. The corn basis oscillated, with the futures slightly at a discount. - Starch main contract 2601 stopped falling and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened oscillating [4]. Supply - side Situation - **Grain Quality Differentiation**: In the second half of the autumn harvest, grain quality differentiated. Corn production increased in Northeast China, and the harvest was nearing completion with good quality but pressure from increased supply. In North China and the Huang - Huai region, previous continuous rainy weather led to poor grain quality such as mold and germination. High - quality corn in Northeast China was favored, and the public auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation had a large - volume transaction. On October 20, 14,217 tons were put up for auction and all were sold [4]. - **Channel Inventory**: As of October 17, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 959,000 tons and continued to rise; the weekly shipping volume reached a high of 804,000 tons. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port continued to decline to 118,000 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory rebounded to 362,000 tons. The inventory of downstream enterprises varied. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased, reaching 2.622 million tons as of October 24, while the corn inventory of feed enterprises decreased to 24.04 days, remaining at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Grain Substitution and Imports**: The price difference between wheat and corn widened to around 200, and wheat lost its substitution advantage. The auction of policy rice stopped. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level. In September, 60,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80.7%; from January to September, a total of 936,000 tons of corn were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 92.7%. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, imports were expected to remain low [5]. - **Foreign Market**: The US corn in the foreign market oscillated and rebounded. There was significant pressure from the concentrated harvest of US corn, and production increased. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture's reports were suspended [5]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed Demand**: Pig prices were low, and pig farming suffered large losses. As of October 17, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 375.29 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 244.7 yuan per head. Even leading pig enterprises such as Muyuan had started to incur losses. Policy regulation of production capacity was lagging and insufficient, and short - term inventory reduction was difficult. Although the inventory of breeding sows had been adjusted downward, the adjustment was small, and the overall progress was slow, far from the regulation target. Pig inventory might still increase inertia. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell again, and egg - chicken farming suffered losses again. The inventory of laying hens in production increased in September. The loss and cycle of egg - chicken farming were insufficient, leading to a delay in production - capacity adjustment. In September, the feed production volume was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; from January to September, the cumulative production volume was 246.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Feed demand remained strong [6]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises might pick up, and the peak season was gradually approaching. A large amount of low - priced moldy corn could only enter the deep - processing sector, significantly reducing the cost of deep - processing enterprises. The starch - processing profit was fully profitable, and the operating rate increased. As of October 17, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 55.62%, showing an overall upward trend recently. Starch inventory decreased. Some alcohol - processing enterprises had profits, and the operating rate increased to 61.67%, also showing an overall upward trend recently. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises was weak, while that of paper - making enterprises was strong [7].

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月23日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 研究助理：康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 随着华北天气好转，购销活动有效恢复，对行情扰动逐步消散，市场焦点回到新季供应压力表现。期现市场 涨势暂缓，其中现货市场整体平稳，收购端范围扩大，储备库挺价明显，华北经历天气影响后，优质玉米受 到青睐，报价稳中有涨，东北产区卖压继续释放，售粮意愿平稳，低价售粮意愿不足，市场收购情绪稳定， 短期市场处于弱平衡，后期随着卖压累计，仍将考验中下游承接力度，价格或仍有回踩动作。 期货端随着反弹动能释放，价格回落整理运行，周三，玉米各合约普遍收低，主力01合约收于2133元，夜盘 收低于2126元，关注现货卖压释放下期货二次探底风险，01-05为代表的近远价差维持高位，昨日玉米注册仓 单增加12644手至61968手； 淀粉走货好转，库存下降，但水平仍处于高位，关注去库持续性； 周三，CBOT玉米期货收涨0.95%，因预计单产下降支撑期价。 【利多因素】 【利空因素】 | 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Corn prices are likely to decline in the short term but have limited downside space, with support at the 2000 price level. It is recommended to focus on long - term long - buying opportunities for corn [2][5]. - Different participants in the industry are given corresponding operation suggestions. Traders for procurement management should build inventory, buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases, and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; traders for inventory management with inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level; downstream enterprises for procurement management should buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases and sell put options at the support level to reduce costs; downstream enterprises for inventory management with high raw material inventory should directly short futures and sell a portion of put options at the support level [2]. - Key data to focus on include the selling pressure at the grass - roots level, changes in the inventory of the breeding industry, and the price difference between corn and wheat [2]. Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Continuous rainy weather has intensified the selling pressure in Henan and other regions, resulting in a significant impact from the overall market supply. The new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions has a large amount of harvest and listing, with high enthusiasm for selling grain at the grass - roots level. The arrival volume at the four northern ports and the number of vehicles arriving at Shandong's deep - processing plants have reached historical highs [7][8]. Corn Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In August 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 40,000 tons, a three - year low. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of ordinary corn was 890,000 tons, a decrease of 92.92% compared with the same period last year. The estimated import volume of corn in the 2024/25 season is 3 million tons, lower than the 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][18][19]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat has moved out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has decreased. The price of wheat has risen this week. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is around - 290 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 45.22% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 40.00% year - on - year [22][23]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is poor. In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn used in compound feed was 32.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 percentage points. The inventory of breeding capacity is at a high level, but the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs, the breeding profit of broilers, and the breeding profit of laying hens are all in a poor state [31][32][33]. Corn Processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to recover, and the deep - processing production profit has improved rapidly. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises in the country has returned to a neutral level, with the operating rate in Shandong and Heilongjiang regions at a relatively high level. The production of corn starch has increased, and the downstream pick - up volume has recovered. The production profit of corn starch has recovered rapidly, and the profit of corn alcohol manufacturing in major producing provinces has also improved [47][48]. Inventory Channel and Downstream Inventory - Channel and downstream inventories have started to replenish, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of October 10, the inventory at the four northern ports has stopped falling and started to rise, but it is still at a low level. The inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has continued to rise seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises has increased and is at a high level in the past eight years [75][76][77]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch contracts such as C2601, C2605, and C2609, including the basis of corn and starch at different ports and regions, and the spread between different contracts [106][116][117]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of October 16, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 [126].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 16, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The near - month contract of the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn futures rebounded after quickly breaking below the 2,100 yuan mark, pricing in bullish factors such as increased spot buyers, the judgment of short - term negative and long - term positive impacts of corn quality issues in North China, and the release of downward momentum after the futures price approached the cost line [2]. - The structure of the contracts shows a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength, with the 1 - 5 spread widening to nearly 100 yuan/ton. The pricing of the forward contracts reflects the market's relatively optimistic sentiment towards the corn market next year, while the near - month contracts are still under pressure from the new grain listing. Although there is a short - term rebound, the upward space may be limited [2]. - The spot market is weaker than the futures market, with prices mostly falling. The listing of new grain continues to dominate the market, and the pressure on the spot market needs time to digest. Attention should be paid to the end of the month when the new grain harvest nears its end, which may be an important node for spot prices [2]. - The CBOT corn futures price has been oscillating narrowly after breaking through support, and the delay in report releases due to the government shutdown has left the market lacking guidance [2]. Summary by Content Market Conditions - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, compared with October 14, corn futures prices generally rose. Corn 11 rose by 8 yuan to 2,101 yuan, with a 0.38% increase; Corn 01 rose by 16 yuan to 2,127 yuan, with a 0.76% increase; Corn 03 rose by 17 yuan to 2,157 yuan, with a 0.79% increase; Corn 05 rose by 16 yuan to 2,218 yuan, with a 0.73% increase; Corn 07 rose by 14 yuan to 2,232 yuan, with a 0.63% increase; Corn 09 remained unchanged at 2,247 yuan. Corn starch futures prices also mostly rose. Corn starch 11 rose by 16 yuan to 2,401 yuan, with a 0.67% increase; Corn starch 01 rose by 17 yuan to 2,418 yuan, with a 0.71% increase; Corn starch 03 rose by 13 yuan to 2,435 yuan, with a 0.54% increase; Corn starch 05 rose by 12 yuan to 2,529 yuan, with a 0.48% increase; Corn starch 07 rose by 12 yuan to 2,539 yuan, with a 0.47% increase; Corn starch 09 rose by 1 yuan to 2,571 yuan, with a 0.04% increase [3][6]. - **Spot Prices**: Among corn spot prices, the price at Jinzhou Port was 2,130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price at Shekou Port was 2,310 yuan, unchanged; the price in Harbin was 2,000 yuan, down 20 yuan. Among corn starch spot prices, the price in Shandong was 2,740 yuan, unchanged; the price in Jilin was 2,550 yuan, unchanged; the price in Heilongjiang was 2,460 yuan, unchanged [3]. - **Base Difference**: The Jinzhou Port main - continuous base difference of corn was 29 yuan, down 18 yuan; the Shandong main - continuous base difference of corn starch was 339 yuan, down 16 yuan [3]. - **US Corn Market**: The CBOT corn main - continuous contract was at 417.25 cents, up 4 cents, with a 0.97% increase. The COBT soybean main - continuous contract was at 1,007 cents, up 0.75 cents, with a 0.07% increase. The CBOT wheat main - continuous contract was at 498.75 cents, down 1.5 cents, with a - 0.3% decrease. The duty - paid price at the US Gulf was 2,090.31 yuan, up 8.74 yuan, with a 0.42% increase, and the import profit was 219.69 yuan. The duty - paid price at the US West Coast was 1,941.98 yuan, up 8.6 yuan, with a 0.44% increase, and the import profit was 368.02 yuan [29]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The types of spot buyers have increased, which eases market pressure; the pressure of domestic corn production increase is limited, imports remain at a low level, and the market is expected to show resilience after the seasonal pressure [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the feed demand for corn in the medium term; the release of the new - season supply pressure still takes time, and the price is in the process of bottom - seeking or at the bottom; the number of trucks arriving in Shandong remains high, and the purchase price mostly falls; North China will experience another rainfall process, putting continued pressure on the spot market [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. The moving - average lines on the chart show a bearish arrangement, with a weak technical pattern. It may continue to test the support level of the 2100 - yuan integer mark. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [6][61]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1.走势回顾 (Review of Trends) - **Futures Prices**: After the holiday, the corn futures market was weak, showing a downward - opening, low - running, and volatile downward trend. As of last Friday's close, the main corn contract C2511 closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous trading day. The market trading was active, with a trading volume of 393,175 lots and an open interest of 591,363 lots. The CBOT corn main - continuous contract closed at 413.5 cents per bushel, down 1.14% [4][10][15]. - **Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of national corn last week was 2336 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the Northeast production area, the purchase price of new grain generally decreased. In North China, due to continuous rainfall delaying the harvest, the price fluctuated downward. In the sales area, new grain led the decline, and old grain followed. The price of ports first decreased and then stabilized. The purchase price of Shekou Port was 2370 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from before the National Day [5][17][20]. 3.2.上周相关信息回顾 (Review of Relevant Information Last Week) - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US corn exports in the week ending October 2, 2025, would be between 1.2 million and 2 million tons. From January to August this year, Russia exported more than 287,000 tons of corn to China, three times the export volume of the same period last year. In September, Brazil's corn export volume was 7.563 million tons. In October 2025, Brazil's corn export volume is expected to be between 5.81 million and 6.3 million tons, with an average of 6.06 million tons, a 6.8% increase from October last year. As of October 7, Kazakhstan had harvested 13.6 million tons of grains. As of October 8, Ukraine's grain export volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.937 million tons, a decrease of 4.8 million tons or 40.9% from the same period last year. As of October 3, the daily average ethanol production was 1.071 million barrels per day. As of October 10, more than half of the autumn grain in the country had been harvested. As of October 10, Ukraine's grain harvest in 2025 had reached 33.03 million tons [21][22]. 3.3.玉米供需格局分析 (Analysis of Corn Supply - Demand Pattern) - **Feed Enterprises' Inventory**: As of October 9, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 24.49 days, down 0.72 days from the previous week, a 2.86% month - on - month decrease and a 6.06% year - on - year decrease. During the holiday, the inventory slightly decreased because enterprises mainly consumed previous orders, with limited new purchase orders [26]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory**: The total corn inventory of 96 major corn deep - processing enterprises last week was 2.334 million tons, a 14.64% increase from before the holiday but a 14% decrease year - on - year. The inventory decreased as new grain entered the market, and enterprises mainly made rigid replenishments for short - term production needs [29]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Consumption**: Last week, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1927 million tons of corn, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes [34]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Startup Situation**: Last week, the total corn processing volume was 544,500 tons, an increase of 17,800 tons from before the holiday. The weekly corn starch output was 268,000 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from before the holiday. The weekly startup rate was 51.81%, up 2.36% from before the holiday [39]. - **Deep - processing Enterprises' Profit Situation**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 235 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Shandong, it was - 81 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton month - on - month; in Heilongjiang, it was - 178 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton month - on - month. Deep - processing enterprises generally adopted a "low - inventory + fast - turnover" strategy [44]. 3.4.关联品情况分析 (Analysis of Related Products) - **Corn Starch**: Last week, the corn starch market was weak. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong, Hebei, Jilin, and Heilongjiang all decreased compared with before the holiday. The concentrated listing of new corn dragged down the price of corn starch, and downstream buyers were in a wait - and - see mood [50][51]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the pig price dropped significantly. As of last Friday, the national average pig slaughter price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.1 yuan/kg from before the holiday, a nearly 9% month - on - month decrease. After the double festivals, the pig market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises decreased after October 5, and the price of white - striped pork fell in tandem with the pig price [59][60]. 3.5.后市展望 (Market Outlook) - In the short term, the corn futures market will be dominated by the pressure of new grain concentrated listing, maintaining a volatile downward trend. In the medium term, it is necessary to wait for the supply pressure to be released and the demand side to substantially recover. There may be a phased layout opportunity in late October [61]. 3.6.操作策略 (Operation Strategies) - **Single - side Trading**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at high prices for near - month contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Continue to hold reverse spreads. - **Options**: Construct a bear - spread strategy [7][62].