研究所 上市逐步增加 玉米偏弱运行 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年10月10日 研究所 假期后两个交易日，玉米期货震荡偏弱运行，近远月价差走低。现货长假期间下跌明显，各地都有不同程度走弱，东北产区上 市压力开始体现，下跌幅度较大。北港现货下跌明显，对盘面基差大幅走弱。基本面来看，新作玉米增产预期较强，加之成本 下降，对市场心理形成一定压制。目前东北主产区玉米即将进入集中收割期，上市压力会明显上升，同时，华北黄淮等区域的 新粮也将陆续投放市场，新玉米供应有放量之势。需求端来看，鸡蛋、生猪价格大幅走弱，养殖利润恶化，饲料需求预期不佳 ；深加工利润仍然较差，开机率也维持低位。用粮企业在下游消费不乐观的情景下，维持低库存策略，短期需求利多不足。不 过，由于进口替代性谷物有限及小麦-玉米价差再度走高，后期用粮企业补库需求仍是潜在支撑因素。从估值来看，目前盘面 贴水，且逼近新作集港成本，预计玉米期货随着供应压力逐步上升维持震荡偏弱格局，但继续下行空间不大。操作上，短线交 易。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 研究所 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 国际玉米市场动态 CONTENTS ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

| | 当前北方原料玉米处于新陈交替供应市场阶段，部分企业因原料玉米供应不足，新增检修，同时目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力偏弱，叠加需求略有好转，使得库存压力有所下滑。截至9月10日 | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量122.6万吨，较上周下降3.90万吨，周降幅3.08%，月降幅6.98%；年同比增幅40.27%。不过， | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况，13日凌晨USDA月度供需报告 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 行业库存仍然偏高，且木薯淀粉和小麦淀粉替代优势仍然较好，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。盘面来看，受玉米回落影响，近日淀 | 粉同步走弱，且受自身需求不佳影响，总体走势弱于玉米。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 玉米系产业日报 2025-09-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The corn market is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. Due to high yields, imported corn supplements the market supply, and the overall supply is sufficient. The price difference between corn and wheat remains in the substitutable range, with wheat being widely used as a substitute for corn. Alongside the substitution of millet and other grains, these factors suppress the corn price. The planting area of new crops is high, and the expected yield per unit is good, so the new crop yield is still expected to be abundant. The lowest planting cost of the new crop on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift downward. Under multiple negative factors, it is expected that c2509 will oscillate downward, and the later price center is expected to shift downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Corn Supply - **Supply**: The domestic corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the growth of new - season corn is good. The current main variable is the weather during the growth period, especially rainfall. The NDVI data shows that the growth of corn in Northeast China is significantly better than in previous years, while in North China, although affected by extreme weather, the growth is still around the annual average. Overall, the expected yield per unit of corn in the main production areas is good [9][10]. - **Import**: The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the total corn import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The USDA estimates that China's corn imports in the 2024/25 season will be 4 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 season [17][19][20]. - **Substitutes**: Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes is decreasing. The price difference between corn and wheat in North China is near parity, and wheat has a high cost - effectiveness, exerting great pressure on the feed - use substitution of corn. In June 2025, the import volume of barley decreased by 23.83% year - on - year, and the import volume of sorghum decreased by 32.71% year - on - year [29][30]. Demand - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, the parent - stock of white - feather broilers, and the hatching volume of laying - hen chicks are all at high levels, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs is at a low level, the profit of broiler breeding is seasonally rising, and the profit of laying - hen breeding has deteriorated [34][35][36]. - **Deep - processing**: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has increased significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has rebounded to a neutral level, with Shandong and Heilongjiang showing relatively high rates. The corn starch production has also increased, but the downstream提货量 is low, and the production profit is severely in the red. The consumption of corn by corn alcohol enterprises has slowed down, and the operating rate has reached a new low [55][56]. Inventory - **Corn Trade and Inventory**: The inventory of trade channels and downstream users is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 8, the inventory of the four northern ports continued to decline, and the domestic trade inventory of southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises continued to decrease, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises continued to reach a new high in the past eight years [83][84][85]. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The report provides the basis data of corn 01, 05, 09 contracts at Jinzhou Port and the basis data of starch 01, 05, 09 contracts in Jilin area on August 14, 2025 [117][119][121]. - **Spread**: The report provides the spread data of corn 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and the spread data of starch 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, as well as the spread data between corn and starch 01, 05, 09 contracts [127][128][129]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of August 14, 2025, the corn warehouse receipt quantity was 222,298 hands, and the corn starch warehouse receipt quantity was 25,000 hands [140]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - **Traders**: For procurement management, build inventory and seek to buy corn at low prices. Use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option at an entry price of 8. For inventory management, sell corn at high prices and use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4]. - **Downstream Enterprises**: For procurement management, when in need of corn raw materials and worried about price increases, use a 100% hedging ratio, buy the c2509 - C - 2400 option. For inventory management, when the raw material inventory is high and worried about price drops, use a 100% hedging ratio, short the c2509 contract at an entry price of 2300 [4].

Core Insights - The corn prices in various regions of China show a mixed trend, with some areas experiencing a decline while others remain stable [1][2] - The U.S. corn export inspection report indicates no exports to mainland China for the week ending August 14, maintaining a zero export volume for consecutive weeks [3] - The USDA's crop progress report shows a slight decline in the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. corn, with the current rating at 71%, compared to 72% the previous week [3] Price Trends - North Port corn prices range from 2290 to 2310 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton; South Port prices remain stable at 2390-2400 CNY/ton [1] - A detailed price list for yellow corn across various provinces shows prices ranging from 2120 CNY/ton in Heilongjiang to 2480 CNY/ton in Shandong [2] - The futures market closed at 2170.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.60% with a trading volume of 353,719 contracts [2] Market Analysis - The ongoing auction of imported corn in Northeast China and the good growth of the new season corn are putting pressure on the current market sentiment, leading to a more active selling behavior among grain holders [4] - The demand from feed enterprises remains weak, with many deep processing companies continuing to adjust their inventory based on supply and demand [4]

Report Title - New Grain Harvest Approaching, Corn Continues to Weaken - Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report, August 17, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the overall corn spot market was weak. In Shandong, the supply was low, and enterprises significantly pressured prices in the first half of the week but with less intensity later, and the spot price stabilized. In Northeast China, it was also weak due to auctions. At the north - south ports, the spot price was relatively strong as inventory continued to decline. The futures price first rose and then fell, with a long upper shadow on the weekly line. The basis weakened slightly, and the C2511 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to the main contract shift. Fundamentally, with the continuation of reserve grain auctions and the approaching new grain harvest, the willingness of grain - holding traders to sell increased, strengthening the supply pressure. On the demand side, although feed production increased, policies to reduce pig production capacity and average weight suppressed feed demand expectations. Meanwhile, wheat still had an advantage in substituting for corn, and the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn was restricted. Additionally, the profit of the deep - processing sector remained poor, negatively affecting consumption. Overall, the later corn supply - demand situation will tend to be loose, and the market will maintain a pattern of oscillating to find the bottom. The operation should be based on a bearish - oscillating mindset [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook 1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided 1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - The overall corn spot market was weak last week. In Shandong, the supply was low, enterprises pressured prices in the first half of the week and with less intensity later, and the spot price stabilized. In Northeast China, it was weak due to auctions, and at the north - south ports, the spot price was relatively strong as inventory declined [7] 1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional价差 - Not provided 1.4 Corn Selling Progress - Not provided 1.5 Corn Import - Not provided 1.6 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand - Although feed production increased, policies to reduce pig production capacity and average weight suppressed feed demand expectations, and the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn was restricted [7] 1.7 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand: Feed Output - Not provided 1.8 Deep - processing Demand - The profit of the deep - processing sector remained poor, negatively affecting consumption [7] 1.9 Substitutes - Wheat still had an advantage in substituting for corn, restricting the procurement demand of feed enterprises for corn [7] 1.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided 1.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided 2. International Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided 2.2 Corn Starch Spot - A table shows the price data of corn starch spot from August 1st to August 14th, including different price levels such as the lowest, highest, etc. [89] 2.3 Corn - Starch Price Difference - Not provided 2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided 2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided 2.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided 3. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 3.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided 3.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided 3.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided 3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided 4. Corn Starch Market Dynamics - Not provided Weather Forecast - In the next 10 days (August 15 - 24), cumulative precipitation in areas such as eastern North China, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, northern Shandong, southern Jiangnan, South China, most of Southwest China, and southern Tibet will be 50 - 80 mm. In the next 11 - 14 days (August 25 - 28), the main rainfall areas will be in eastern North China, central and southern Northeast China, southern South China, Yunnan, western Sichuan Basin, and southeastern Tibet, with cumulative precipitation of 20 - 40 mm and locally over 50 mm. Precipitation in these areas will be 30% - 70% more than the same period of the year, and locally twice as much [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn 12 - contract has limited downside space below 400 cents per bushel as the market price is below the cost and the yield per unit may be revised down later. The domestic corn spot price is expected to continue to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions, high warehouse receipts, lower planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 01 corn contract is expected to oscillate weakly and may fall to 2150 yuan per ton. The starch market will follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Corn**: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) August report raised the yield per unit and area of US corn, resulting in a record - high production. The US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, but it is significantly lower than the cost of 470 cents per bushel. As of August 15, 3.28 million tons of corn were auctioned, with 1.24 million tons sold, a transaction rate of 38%. The domestic corn spot price continues to decline due to factors such as continuous auctions of imported corn, high 09 warehouse receipts, lower domestic planting costs, and the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The market expects that the price of North China corn will likely fall below 2200 yuan per ton when it is abundantly available in October, and the 01 corn contract may oscillate weakly and fall to 2150 yuan per ton [4]. - **Starch**: The starch factory operating rate has increased, but downstream demand remains weak. Although the corn spot price has declined, the starch spot price has also fallen, and starch factories are still suffering large losses. The operating rate of North China starch enterprises will decline later, and the North China starch price will continue to fall with the upcoming new - season corn harvest. The 11 and 01 starch contracts are expected to follow the corn market and oscillate weakly [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the US corn 12 - contract, consider buying below 400 cents per bushel. For the domestic 01 corn contract, consider buying around 2150 yuan per ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the 01 and 11 corn and starch contracts. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market - US Corn**: The August report raised the area and yield per unit of US corn, causing the price to break below 400 cents per bushel for the 12 - contract. The import tariffs on US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has increased. As of August 5, the non - commercial net short position of US corn decreased, and the US ethanol production declined. Although the US corn price has broken below 400 cents per bushel, the downside space is limited as the yield per unit may be revised down later [8][15]. - **Domestic Market - Corn**: Feed enterprise corn inventories have decreased compared to the previous period but are higher than the same period last year. The consumption of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and their inventories have also decreased and are expected to continue to decline next week. Both the northern port corn inventories and southern port grain inventories have decreased [19][20][23]. - **Domestic Market - Starch**: The deep - processing operating rate has increased, with the national corn processing volume reaching 576,000 tons and starch production at 289,200 tons this week. The operating rate is 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. The profit loss has narrowed due to the decline in North China corn spot prices, stable starch spot prices, and strong by - product prices. Starch inventories have increased but are expected to decline next week [26][27]. - **Substitute - Wheat**: The wheat price is basically stable, with the North China delivered - to - factory price around 2450 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened, the North China corn price has declined, the Northeast corn price has remained stable, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has narrowed, and the price difference between North China corn and the 09 corn contract has increased [33]. - **Livestock and Poultry - Related**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing - Starch Downstream Consumption**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **US Corn**: As of August 7, the weekly US corn export inspection volume was 1.49 million tons, and the cumulative export volume was 63.13 million tons. The weekly export volume to China was 0 tons, and the cumulative export volume to China was 27,000 tons, accounting for 0.04%. In June, the domestic corn import volume was 160,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 790,000 tons, compared with 1.105 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Corn and Starch**: As of August 14, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from the previous week and an increase of 2.07% compared to the same period last year. From August 7th to 14th, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1406 million tons of corn, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week. As of August 13, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62% from the previous week. As of August 8, the northern four - port corn inventory was 1.774 million tons, a decrease of 131,000 tons from the previous week, and the four - port shipping volume was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port decreased by 184,000 tons to 1.544 million tons [19][20][23]. - **Starch Market**: From August 7th to 14th, the national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, and starch production was 289,200 tons, with an operating rate of 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. This week, the profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang was - 90 yuan, an increase of 17 yuan from last week, and in Shandong, it was - 90 yuan, an increase of 18 yuan from last week. As of August 13, the corn starch inventory was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 1.6% and an annual increase of 20.3% [26][27]. - **Livestock and Poultry Market**: In the week from August 7th to 14th, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 11 yuan per head, a decrease of 20 yuan per head from last week, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 204 yuan per head, a decrease of 17 yuan per head from last week. The white - feather broiler breeding profit was 1.78 yuan per bird, up from 1.16 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.5 yuan per catty, and the average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan per catty, up from 3.01 yuan per catty last week [39][45]. - **Deep - Processing Downstream**: The F55 high - fructose corn syrup operating rate was 58.62%, an increase of 0.5% from last week, and the maltose syrup operating rate was 47.33%, an increase of 0.43% from last week. The corrugated paper operating rate was 61.78%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week, and the boxboard paper operating rate was 70.0%, an increase of 1.32% from last week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If the estimated increase in corn production in the US, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina is realized, the global corn market will remain relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to trade at low levels [2][34]. - In China, the area of new - season corn is slightly increasing, and the weather has been generally favorable so far, but there are concerns about drought in some regions. The supply of old - season corn is tight, but there are supplements from wheat and imported corn auctions. The price of domestic corn is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but its medium - term trend will face pressure due to the approaching new - season corn harvest and lower production costs [2][34]. - In terms of operation, the old - season contracts should be treated with a range - bound approach, while a bearish view is recommended for the new - season contracts [2][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Since July, domestic corn futures and spot prices have declined. The start of the auction of imported corn by Sinograin loosened the expectation of a tight supply pattern, leading to a wave of selling by spot grain holders. Later in the month, the market sentiment stabilized, and the spot price showed a certain rebound. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts first declined and then rebounded [4]. 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 Strong Expectation of New - Season Corn Yield Increase in the US - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated that the US corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 95.2 million acres, with a yield per acre of 181 bushels and a total output of 15.705 billion bushels. The year - end carry - over inventory is 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the previous year but lower than last month's estimate. The expansion of the planting area provides a large margin of safety for supply, and the current trend of yield per acre is in a good state, with favorable weather outlook, resulting in significant pressure for a bumper harvest [6]. 2.2 Steady - to - Increasing Future Yields in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's July estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 was 132 million tons, with exports of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 91 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Argentina's output in 2024/25 was 50 million tons, and in 2025/26, it is predicted to be 53 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The predicted output for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly, but this prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [9]. 2.3 Expected Recovery and Increase in New - Season Corn Yield in Ukraine - The USDA estimates that Ukraine's corn output in 2025/26 will be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons (13.8%) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a slight increase in area and recovery of yield per acre. The final year - end carry - over inventory is 60,000 tons, recovering from the previous year. Since June, precipitation in major producing areas has been low, and the NDVI index has been slightly lower, so future weather changes need to be monitored [11]. 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Planting Area and Steady - to - Increasing Production - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates that China's corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), an increase of 132 thousand hectares (1.98 million mu) or 0.3% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), and the total output will be 296.16 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. Overall, domestic corn production is expected to increase slightly. Since sowing, the climate suitability for corn has been generally good, but since July, precipitation has been low in the core producing areas in the Northeast and the Huang - Huai region, and drought pressure has emerged in some areas, so the impact of weather on yield per acre needs to be monitored [16]. 3.2 Decrease in Direct Corn Imports and Sinograin's Imported Corn Auction as an Important Supplement - China's corn imports have remained at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 2024/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.68 million tons, a significant decrease compared to 21.63 million tons in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that imports will increase in the second half of 2025, but the arrival may be after September. Since July 1st, Sinograin has started the auction of reserve imported corn, with a total turnover of less than 1 million tons, and the future supply is uncertain [18][20]. 3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output - In the first half of 2025, the total output of industrial feed in China was 158.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased, while that of concentrated feed decreased. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding scales is expected to support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [23]. 3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - Due to weak macro - economic growth and low consumer confidence, the consumption of downstream products of deep - processing enterprises has been sluggish, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of corn in the deep - processing sector. Since 2024/25, the corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises has decreased by about 4% compared to the previous year. In the corn starch production, which accounts for the largest proportion of corn consumption in the deep - processing sector, the consumption of corn starch has decreased significantly, leading to high inventory, poor processing profit, and low operating rate. It is expected that the deep - processing of corn starch will not improve significantly [24][27]. 3.5 Wheat Still Has an Advantage over Corn, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Auction of Feed Rice - Since March, wheat has shown an advantage in substituting for corn, and feed enterprises in North and Central China have adjusted their formulas. The import of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley has decreased significantly, and it is unlikely to increase suddenly in the future. However, the auction of aged rice is an uncertain factor [29].

Report Title - "Uptake Declines, Corn Stabilizes and Rebounds — Guoxin Futures Corn Weekly Report" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Corn spot prices showed signs of stabilization last week, with the selling pace of grain holders slowing down, a significant reduction in the number of trucks arriving at the doorsteps of deep - processing enterprises in major producing areas, and more enterprises raising prices. Futures prices rebounded after hitting the bottom, and the basis weakened slightly. This week, the transaction rate of imported corn auctions decreased significantly, and the market also began to expect a slowdown in the auction pace, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. Looking ahead, domestic corn inventories and southern imported grain inventories have been declining continuously, indicating that the overall supply pressure is not large. Grain holders have largely digested the negative impact of imported corn auctions, and the market may re - enter a stage of low supply volume. On the demand side, feed production still maintains good growth, but due to poor breeding profits and the impact of wheat substitution, the replenishment demand for corn from feed enterprises is suppressed. Deep - processing profits continue to be in the red, the de - stocking of finished product inventories is slow, and the operating rate remains at a low level, providing insufficient support for corn demand. Overall, as the selling sentiment on the spot side stabilizes, the short - term bottom support for corn has strengthened, but due to insufficient demand - side stimulation, there is limited upside potential for corn prices. The recommended operation is to be bullish in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. International Corn Market Dynamics 1.1 US Corn Futures Market - Not provided [10] 1.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress - Not provided [14] 1.3 US Corn Export Sales - Not provided [19] 1.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress - Not provided [27] 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics 2.1 Corn Futures Market Changes - Not provided [33] 2.2 Corn Spot Market Changes - Not provided [42] 2.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Price Differences - Not provided [48] 2.4 Corn Selling Progress - Not provided [54] 2.5 Corn Imports - Not provided [58] 2.6 Feed and Aquaculture Demand - Not provided [66] 2.7 Feed and Aquaculture Demand: Feed Production - Not provided [75] 2.8 Deep - processing Demand - Not provided [76] 2.9 Substitutes - Not provided [80] 2.10 North Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided [86] 2.11 South Port Corn Dynamics - Not provided [91] 2.12 South Port Grain Dynamics - Not provided [92] 3. Corn Starch Market Dynamics 3.1 Corn Starch Futures - Not provided [97] 3.2 Corn Starch Spot - A table shows data from July 7 to July 18, including prices such as 2700, 2760, 2790, etc. [107] 3.3 Corn - Starch Price Difference - Not provided [114] 3.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory - Not provided [122] 3.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand - Not provided [128] 3.6 Cassava Starch - Not provided [132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. With the continuous consumption of surplus grains and the decline in imports, a pattern of tight supply in the short - term has emerged. - Imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn has enhanced the substitution effect in the feed field, suppressing the upward momentum of corn prices. - Downstream procurement remains cautious. Livestock enterprises, restricted by low profits, mostly replenish stocks as needed, while deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. Overall, consumption has limited ability to boost prices. - From a technical perspective, the main corn futures contract is in an upward channel but is under pressure from the upper edge of the channel and has been testing support levels downward. Without a trend - driving force in supply and demand, the futures price is expected to gradually decline to the key integer level of 2,300 yuan/ton, which may trigger a technical rebound at that time [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Corn Market Structure - As of the end of June, the corn index price first rose and then fell. After reaching a low of 2,300 yuan/ton at the end of May, it rebounded, tested the previous high of 2,380 yuan/ton but failed to break through, and then declined again to test the support at 2,300 yuan/ton. It is expected to form a double - top structure. - The corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. The decreasing inventory in domestic main producing areas supports traders' reluctance to sell, but affected by the wheat substitution effect and policy - grain auctions, the price is oscillating downward. - Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in weak consumption. Livestock enterprises purchase as needed due to low profits, and corn deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. The main corn futures contract is in an upward channel, and in the short - term, it is retesting the support around 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - The overall term - structure shows that the September contract is at a discount to the January contract, and the January contract is at a discount to the May contract [8]. Market行情Analysis Supply Side - Global corn supply and demand tightened according to the June USDA report. The old - crop exports were increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending stocks were correspondingly reduced. For the new - crop, the ending stocks were also reduced by 50 million bushels. The new - crop ending stocks were lower than expected, and the report was slightly bullish. The expected 2025/2026 US corn production is 15.82 billion bushels, with a planted area of 95.3 million acres and a yield of 181 bushels per acre, remaining unchanged from May. The expected ending stocks are 1.75 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast and the Reuters average. Globally, the 2025/2026 production is increased to 1.266 billion tons, and the ending stocks are 275.236 million tons, which is also bullish [11]. - Tariff policies have tightened imports, which is beneficial to the confidence of the domestic corn market. Although the overall import of agricultural products from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import sources since 2018. The proportion of US - imported corn and wheat in China's total imports is less than 20%, so the impact of tariffs is relatively limited, but the impact on US - imported sorghum, which accounts for over 50%, may be relatively large. In 2025, China's corn imports have dropped significantly. From January to May, the cumulative import was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%. Importing US corn is not cost - effective [15][16]. - Corn is in a policy - sensitive period, and the expectation of imported corn auctions has been fulfilled. On July 1, imported corn was auctioned in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a transaction rate of 97%. On July 4, the second auction was held nationwide through public bidding, with a larger scale. The transaction rate was 85.95%. The imported corn supply has supplemented the market, but the future frequency, scale, and price of auctions will affect the market [21]. - The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn may lead to a decline in corn prices. Corn is in a supply vacuum period, and new wheat prices are at 1.21 - 1.23 yuan per catty. The wheat - corn price difference in Henan is - 40 yuan/ton and in Hebei is - 5 yuan/ton. Wheat is more cost - effective, so many enterprises are using wheat to replace corn in the feed field [22]. Demand Side - The reduction of pig production capacity is slow. As of May 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 3.6% higher than the normal level. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan per head. The pig market may face double pressure from cost and supply. Although there is a rigid demand for feed, there is little room for growth [23]. - Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss situation, which limits the demand for corn. Due to weak macroeconomic growth and poor downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing enterprises is not good. As of July 5, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 51.57%, the corn processing volume was 789,000 tons, and the processing profit was - 62.97 yuan per ton. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing [37]. Market Outlook The current situation of the corn market is as described in the core viewpoints, with a tight supply pattern in the short - term, supplemented by imported corn auctions, and a limited ability of consumption to boost prices. The futures price is expected to decline to 2,300 yuan/ton and may rebound technically [39].