Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes dropping after a high opening, and prices will face pressure during the peak listing period [1]. - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as a large amount of new grain enters the market [1]. - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest forecast and awaiting further supply - side guidance [1]. - The price of Dalian corn futures has declined again. Attention should be paid to the cumulative risk of spot prices during the National Day holiday. It is recommended to hold short positions or remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Corn Futures**: From September 26 to September 29, 2025, corn 11 dropped from 2178 to 2159, a decrease of 19 or - 0.87%; corn 01 dropped from 2139 to 2135, a decrease of 4 or - 0.19%; other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline, except for corn 09 which remained unchanged [1]. - **Corn Starch Futures**: Corn starch 11 rose from 2480 to 2483, an increase of 3 or 0.12%, while other contracts such as corn starch 01, 03, etc. showed small declines [1]. - **Wheat Average Price**: It rose from 2448 to 2450, an increase of 2 or 0.08% [1]. - **Spot and Basis**: For corn, the prices in ports like Jinzhou, Shekou, and Harbin remained unchanged, with Jinzhou Port main - contract basis rising by 19 to 141; for corn starch, prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged, and Shandong main - contract basis dropped by 3 to 297 [9]. - **US Corn and Related Products**: CBOT corn main - contract remained at 421.5, COBT soybean main - contract dropped from 1009.25 to 1004.5, a decrease of 4.75 or - 0.47%, CBOT wheat main - contract dropped from 519 to 518.75, a decrease of 0.25 or - 0.05%. The US Gulf完税 price dropped from 2151.47 to 2133.7, a decrease of 17.77 or - 0.83%, with an import profit of 326.3; the US West完税 price dropped from 2008.88 to 1993.92, a decrease of 14.96 or - 0.74%, with an import profit of 466.08 [21]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: The State Grain Reserve Corporation has started purchasing new - season corn, alleviating the market's pessimistic sentiment; rainfall in some North China production areas has delayed the harvest, resulting in a tight supply of old - season grain [1]. - **Negative Factors**: Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus is putting pressure on prices; the mid - and downstream acquisition mentality is cautious, waiting for lower prices [1].

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/24 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力驱动价格下行，东北多地深加工企业继续下调新粮报价，华北地区深加工（除山东）价格走 弱； 玉米需求端整体稳定，进口压力有限； 当前玉米上量有限，现货价格下跌幅度较小，使得提前收获地区获益，后期价格压力将逐步增加； 当前基差处于偏高水平，随着进入新粮大量上市，基差面临回落风险； 【利多解读】 1、山东深加工企业报价坚挺； 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平，替代压力较小； 3、近日，国家粮食和物资储备局举行2025年全国秋粮收购暨粮食产业项目推进工作会议。会议指出，抓好粮 食收购和项目建设，对保持粮食市场平稳运行、加快粮食产业高质量发展具有重要意义。做好秋粮收购工 作，需在提升收储能力等五方面下功夫，坚决守住农民"种粮卖得出"的底线，不断提升国家粮食安全保障能 力。 【利空解读】 1、玉米处于新季收获上市期，供应的阶段性宽松对价格造成压力； 2、多地深加工企业下调新粮收购报价，尤其黑龙江地区新粮报价较初期有连续下跌过 ...