Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank forecasts global economic growth to remain at 3.4% in 2026, consistent with 2025, driven increasingly by domestic demand and fiscal policies [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The US economic growth forecast has been revised upward from 1.7% to 2.3%, indicating strong growth expectations [1] - Inflationary pressures in the US may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to further ease monetary policy, with no interest rate cuts expected this year [1] Group 2: Market Risks and Uncertainties - The likelihood of extreme situations in global markets is heightened due to rising market risk factors, ongoing trade policy uncertainties, and expanding geopolitical risks [1] Group 3: China Economic Outlook - China's economic growth is expected to maintain a robust momentum, driven by technology-related investments, productivity growth, and policies promoting domestic demand [1] - Although China's foreign trade growth may moderate this year, efforts to diversify trade partners and a cooling of US-China trade tensions are expected to mitigate related impacts [1]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's overall export value has increased for 20 consecutive months, with a year-on-year growth of 17.5% in October 2025 [1][3] - Both exports and imports recorded significant year-on-year increases, with imports rising by 18.3% in the same month [1][3] Export Performance - In October 2025, the total export value reached HKD 461.8 billion, marking a 17.5% increase compared to the same month last year [3] - For the first ten months of the year, the overall export value increased by 13.8% compared to the same period last year [3] Import Performance - The total import value in October 2025 was HKD 501.7 billion, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year increase [3] - For the first ten months of the year, the import value rose by 13.6% compared to the same period last year [3] Trade Deficit - In October 2025, Hong Kong recorded a tangible trade deficit of HKD 39.9 billion, equivalent to 8.0% of the import value [3] - For the first ten months of the year, the tangible trade deficit amounted to HKD 334.0 billion, representing 7.3% of the import value [3] Key Export Destinations - Significant year-on-year export growth was observed to major destinations, particularly Taiwan (40.0%), mainland China (15.8%), Malaysia (53.7%), Vietnam (52.8%), and Japan (14.1%) [3] Key Import Sources - Import values from major supply sources also saw increases, especially from Taiwan (20.9%), mainland China (13.3%), Vietnam (89.5%), the UK (47.1%), and Malaysia (19.7%) [4] Future Outlook - The Hong Kong government anticipates that moderate global economic growth, reduced uncertainty in external trade policies, and sustained demand for electronic products will positively impact Hong Kong's trade growth in the short term [4]