上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 09 日 光大环境 (00257) ——垃圾焚烧龙头迎现金流拐点，分红提升可期 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.81 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8629.75 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 4.14/3.20 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 234.05 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,142.98 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0920 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -11% 9% 29% 49% 06/06 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/06 11/06 12/06 01/06 02/06 03/06 04/06 05/06 06/06 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 研究支持 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@sw ...

Summary of Conference Call for Guangda Environment Company Overview - The conference call focused on Guangda Environment, discussing its financial performance and future projections, particularly regarding cash flow and project developments [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Free Cash Flow Turnaround**: Guangda Environment is expected to achieve positive free cash flow by 2040, with a significant reduction in capital expenditures anticipated to enhance cash flow value [1]. 2. **Financial Data Release**: Financial data for Guangda Environment and Guangda Green Environment will be released in the coming weeks, with a follow-up roadshow planned for April [2]. 3. **Project Developments**: - A new waste-to-energy project in Guangdong has been signed, with a processing fee of approximately 93 RMB per ton, which is considered attractive [3]. - The company is also expanding its overseas projects, including a small project in Vietnam and a significant project in Uzbekistan with a capital expenditure of around 2.2 billion RMB [4][10]. 4. **Capital Expenditures and Cash Flow**: - The CFO indicated that the annual free cash flow is expected to be no less than 1.5 billion HKD, with a potential increase if capital expenditures are reduced by 1 billion HKD [5]. - The company recorded 1.5 billion HKD in cash recovery from local government processing fees and national subsidies, significantly higher than the previous year's 760 million RMB [5]. 5. **Improvement in Processing Fees**: The recovery rate for wastewater treatment fees improved from 72% in 2022 to an expected 79% in 2024, indicating a positive trend in fee collection [6]. 6. **Operational Cash Flow**: Guangda Water's operational cash flow reached approximately 1.849 billion HKD, reflecting strong performance in fee recovery [7]. 7. **International Business Expansion**: The company is focusing on expanding its international business, particularly in Southeast Asia and along the Belt and Road Initiative, with positive developments in project agreements [9][11]. 8. **Government Support and Subsidies**: The national subsidy recovery situation is improving, although there are concerns about the increase in accounts receivable related to these subsidies due to a change in auditors [12][21]. 9. **Heat Supply Business Growth**: The heat supply business has seen significant growth, with supply volumes expected to exceed 4 million tons in 2024, up from 3.1 million tons in 2023 [16]. 10. **Market Trends**: The company anticipates a stable year for waste treatment prices, with expectations for improved processing volumes due to economic recovery [27]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is exploring collaborations with data centers for power and heat supply, although large-scale initiatives have not yet been implemented due to strict project boundary conditions [14]. - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a balance between municipal and industrial wastewater projects, with industrial wastewater currently accounting for about 15% of total revenue from new projects [29][30]. - The company is actively pursuing green electricity trading to reduce operational costs, having signed agreements for approximately 700 million kWh of electricity [34]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting Guangda Environment's strategic direction, financial health, and market positioning.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for the year 2024, indicating challenges in the market and operational performance [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 144.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.032 billion yuan, down 59.99% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a decline of 25.29% year-on-year and 7.55% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 261 million yuan, down 73.22% year-on-year and 40.68% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 2: Sales and Margins - The company's steel sales in 2024 totaled 25.3 million tons, a decrease of 4.64% year-on-year, with an average steel price of 4,339.21 yuan per ton, down 6.59% year-on-year. The gross profit per ton of steel was 191.33 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.16% [3]. Group 3: R&D and Financial Health - The R&D expense ratio for 2024 was 3.95%, with R&D investment amounting to 5.722 billion yuan. The proportion of specialty steel sales increased by 2 percentage points to 65% [4]. - The total depreciation expense reached a 13-year high of 4.02 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 160 million yuan. Free cash flow turned positive at 1.052 billion yuan, and the dividend payout ratio was 33.99%, resulting in a dividend yield of 1.85% based on the current stock price [4]. Group 4: Strategic Developments - The automotive sheet subsidiary achieved a net profit of 2.049 billion yuan in 2024, leading the lightweight development trend in the automotive industry through innovative applications and technologies [5]. - The company announced plans to raise up to 1.5 billion yuan through external investors for its electromagnetic materials company, maintaining a controlling stake of no less than 51%. This funding will accelerate project implementation, with the first phase of silicon steel production already operational [6].