上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（上调） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 45.78 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8389.93 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 61.75/23.70 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,132.46 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 2,464.18 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8836 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberg -29% 21% 71% 121% 03/26 04/26 05/26 06/26 07/26 08/26 09/26 10/26 11/26 12/26 01/26 02/26 03/26 HSCEI 蔚来-SW 相关研究 《小鹏、蔚来、理想、贝斯特更新——一周 一刻钟，大事快评（W147）》 2026/03/22 《重点公司更新：整车（蔚来、上汽、零跑、 长城）、零部件——一周一刻钟，大事快评 （W105）》 2025/05/08 《蔚来-SW ...

晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 25 日 核心结论 分析师 【汽车】蔚来汽车（9866.HK）2025 年报点评：Q4 毛利率环比大幅提升， 产品结构优化&规模效应显现 公司是国内头部新势力车企，随着产品结构以及规模优势强化，我们预计 2026-2028 年公司营收 1284/1571/1808 亿元，归母净利润 4.0/35.9/73.2 亿 元，给予"买入"评级。 【汽车】敏实集团（00425.HK）2025 年年报点评：电池盒贡献核心增量， 机器人&液冷布局持续推进 我 们 预 计 2026-2028 年 公 司 营 收 分 别 为 303/351/401 亿 元 ， 同 比 +18%/+16%/+14% ， 归 母 净 利 润 31.5/37.4/43.4 亿 元 ， 同 比 +17%/+19%/+16%，维持"买入"评级。 【汽车】零跑汽车（09863.HK）2025 年报点评：25 全年业绩符合预期， 26 年冲击销量百万目标 公司为国内头部新势力车企，25 年受新车销量拉动实现量利双增。我们认 为，公司 26 年仍处强势新品周期，有望实现利润目标。预计公司 26-28 年 营收 ...

公司点评 | 蔚来-SW Q4 毛利率环比大幅提升，产品结构优化&规模效应显现 证券研究报告 2026 年 03 月 24 日 蔚来汽车（9866.HK）2025 年报点评 事件：公司发布 2025 年年报，全年总收入 874.9 亿元，同比+33.1%，毛利 率同比+3.7pcts 至 13.6%，Non-GAAP 归母净亏损同比收窄 39.0%至 124.3 亿元。25Q4 收入 346.5 亿元，Non-GAAP 营业利润 12.5 亿元。 受益于 ES8 高盈利产品+规模效应，公司 Q4 毛利率环比大幅提升。公司 25Q4 汽车收入 316.1 亿元，交付 12.48 万辆，单车 ASP 25.3 万元，对比 25Q3 22.1 万元环比大幅提升，主要为 ES8 占比较高所致，该车型 Q4 交付 接近 4 万辆。并且，ES8 毛利率接近 25%，高价值量车型销售占比以及规 模效应提升为公司贡献强劲的盈利能力。25Q4 公司整体毛利率 17.53%，其 中汽车业务毛利率 18.1%，环比提升 3.4pct；其它业务毛利率 11.9%，环比 提升 4.1pct，主要受益于用户基数扩大以及服务及社区业务规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO has achieved a significant milestone by reporting a net profit of 283 million yuan for the first time in Q4 2025, prompting a reevaluation of its market position and future prospects [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, NIO delivered 124,800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 71.7%, with revenue reaching 34.65 billion yuan, up 75.9%, and achieving a net profit of 283 million yuan [8][9]. - The profitability was driven by the introduction of high-margin models like the new ES8, which contributed nearly one-third of total deliveries and had a gross margin close to 25% [11]. - Cost control measures were effective, with R&D expenses down 44.3% to 2.026 billion yuan and sales and management expenses down 27.5% to 3.537 billion yuan, saving nearly 3 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024 [12]. Operational Improvements - NIO has demonstrated improved cash flow, with positive operating cash flow for two consecutive quarters and cash reserves increasing from 36.7 billion yuan in Q3 to 45.9 billion yuan in Q4 [15]. - The company’s service system is transitioning from a cost center to a profit center, with other sales revenue reaching 3.044 billion yuan, a 36.6% increase year-on-year [18]. - The multi-brand strategy is showing results, with record deliveries across NIO, Ladao, and Firefly brands, indicating effective market coverage and product optimization [18]. Challenges Ahead - NIO faces cost pressures due to rising prices in chips and raw materials, with potential increases in vehicle costs by 6,000 to 10,000 yuan, although the company plans to absorb these costs without passing them to consumers [20][22]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the large SUV market, with competitors like Li Auto and BYD entering the fray, necessitating careful brand management and resource allocation [22]. - The company must balance its multi-brand expansion while maintaining brand identity and profitability amidst fluctuating costs and market competition [28].

Core Viewpoint - NIO has posted its first-ever quarterly profit in Q4 2025, leading to increased expectations for the company's growth and a price target of $6.80 by HSBC, driven by anticipated volume growth and margin expansion through 2026 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - NIO reported a Q4 2025 operating profit of $115.4 million, attributed to record deliveries and high-margin models [1] - The company guided Q1 2026 deliveries between 80,000 to 83,000 units, indicating a year-over-year growth of 90.1% to 97.2% [1] - Full-year 2025 deliveries reached 326,028 units, reflecting a 46.9% increase year-over-year [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - HSBC upgraded NIO to Buy from Hold and raised its price target to $6.80, citing stronger conviction in the company's growth trajectory following the Q4 report [1] - Key drivers for NIO's stock performance include new model launches, particularly the ES9 flagship SUV planned for Q2 2026, and the successful Firefly brand with over 40,000 global deliveries [1] - Vehicle margin improved to 18.1% in Q4 2025 from 13.1% a year earlier, with the ES8 leading the large SUV market in China [1] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - To achieve the $6.80 target, NIO must maintain delivery growth, sustain vehicle margins above 17%, and progress towards its full-year non-GAAP operating profit target [1] - Management has aligned CEO compensation with market cap and profit milestones through a 2026 share incentive plan, indicating a focus on shareholder outcomes [1] - Despite current liabilities exceeding current assets as of December 31, 2025, the company’s first quarterly operating profit provides a more favorable structural backdrop for recovery [1]

证券研究报告 蔚来 (NIO US) Q4 扭亏为盈，看好 ES9 和 L80 新车 2026 年 3 月 13 日│美国 乘用车 公司 25 年总营收/归母净利 875/-156 亿元，同比+33 %/减亏 31%，营收创 历史新高。25Q4 营收 347 亿，同比+76%，归母净利 1.2 亿，24 年同期为 净亏损 71.3 亿，首次实现单季度盈利转正，核心源于 25 年上市的 ES8 和 L90 交付高增，并贡献高毛利（改善产品结构），以及 CBU 管理系统下的 人员端费用优化。考虑 26 年 ES8、L90 等有望继续放量，新车 ES9、L80 车型周期强势，维持"买入"评级。 ES8 和 L90 带动盈利向好，公司费用端持续改善 25Q4 公司销售新车 12.5 万辆，同比+71.7%，其中主品牌，乐道分别销售 6.7/3.8 万辆，同比+27.8/+92.1%，环比+84.3%/1.7%，萤火虫销售 1.9 万 辆，环比+52.8%，三大品牌交付量均创单季度历史新高。全新 ES8 和乐道 L90 车型竞争力突出，成为销量核心支撑。25 全年综合毛利率 13.6%，同 比+3.7pct；汽车毛利率 ...

证券研究报告 蔚来 (NIO US) Q4 扭亏为盈，看好 ES9 和 L80 新车 2026 年 3 月 13 日│美国 乘用车 公司 25 年总营收/归母净利 875/-156 亿元，同比+33 %/减亏 31%，营收创 历史新高。25Q4 营收 347 亿，同比+76%，归母净利 1.2 亿，24 年同期为 净亏损 71.3 亿，首次实现单季度盈利转正，核心源于 25 年上市的 ES8 和 L90 交付高增，并贡献高毛利（改善产品结构），以及 CBU 管理系统下的 人员端费用优化。考虑 26 年 ES8、L90 等有望继续放量，新车 ES9、L80 车型周期强势，维持"买入"评级。 ES8 和 L90 带动盈利向好，公司费用端持续改善 25Q4 公司销售新车 12.5 万辆，同比+71.7%，其中主品牌，乐道分别销售 6.7/3.8 万辆，同比+27.8/+92.1%，环比+84.3%/1.7%，萤火虫销售 1.9 万 辆，环比+52.8%，三大品牌交付量均创单季度历史新高。全新 ES8 和乐道 L90 车型竞争力突出，成为销量核心支撑。25 全年综合毛利率 13.6%，同 比+3.7pct；汽车毛利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura upgraded Nio to Buy from Neutral due to improved financial performance and operational enhancements over the past two quarters, indicating a healthier growth phase for the company [1] Financial Performance - Nio's vehicle deliveries are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of about 25% from 2025 to 2028, with revenue increasing at approximately 21% during the same period [2] - Bank of America Securities raised its price forecast to $6.70 from $6.30, noting revenue growth driven by strong vehicle sales and a higher average selling price [3] - Bernstein highlighted Nio's revenue growth and improved margins, marking its first profitable quarter, but expressed concerns over reduced research and development spending [4] Analyst Ratings and Price Forecasts - Macquarie raised its price forecast to $6.50 from $6.10 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing improved vehicle margins and lower operating expenses [5] - Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating with a price forecast of $7.00, emphasizing the company's delivery growth outlook [6] Market Sentiment - Nio shares increased by 3.65% to $5.66 at the time of publication, reflecting positive market sentiment following the earnings report [7]

Summary of NIO Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. (NIO/9866.HK) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) sector in China Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - NIO achieved its first operational break-even results in 4Q25, with expectations for stable vehicle margins in 1Q26E, primarily due to a high delivery mix of the ES8 model and raw material cost inflation not fully reflected yet [1][2] - The company revised its 2026E-28E non-GAAP net profit estimates from Rmb-5.6bn/-1.6bn/1.3bn to Rmb-2.9bn/1.3bn/3.6bn, reflecting higher-than-expected margin guidance and operational expense optimization [2] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 16.0% in 2026E from 13.6% in 2025, driven by a better model mix and economies of scale [2] Model Pipeline and Product Launches - NIO's 2026 model pipeline will focus on large SUVs, including the ES9, L80, and a new large 5-seat SUV, with launches planned for Q2 and Q3 [1][6] - The company aims for a 40%-50% volume growth target in 2026, with Q1 delivery guidance set at 80k-83k units [7] Cost Management and Profitability - Management has implemented cost control measures since March 2025, leading to adjusted operating profit in 4Q25 for the first time [9] - R&D expenses are projected to decline to Rmb9bn in 2026E from Rmb11bn in 2025, with a maintained quarterly non-GAAP R&D expense of Rmb2-2.5bn [7] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of 4Q25, NIO reported Rmb30bn in net cash, an increase from Rmb20bn in 3Q25, driven by strong sales and improving profitability [7] - Payable days increased to 261 days and receivable days to 73 days, indicating potential cash flow sensitivity [1][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NIO's market share in the NEV segment has decreased from 3.8% in 2020 to 2.3% in 2025 due to intensified competition [9] - The company is focusing on improving model competitiveness and expanding its product lineup to regain market share [9] Valuation and Price Target - NIO's stock is trading at 0.8x 2026E P/S, in line with the average for the China auto OEM sector [3] - The 12-month DCF-based target price remains unchanged at US$6.6/HK$52, with an expected upside of 15.8% for ADR and 19.5% for H-share [8][10] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include stronger government policy support for the auto industry and potential lower-than-expected sales volume due to competition [10] - The company faces ongoing cost pressures from rising raw material prices, which could impact profitability in the near term [7][9] Additional Important Information - NIO's brands include Nio (premium BEV), Onvo (mid-end family market), and Firefly (niche boutique market) [9] - The company is also making advancements in intelligent driving technology and self-designed chips, with plans for mass production of a second-generation automotive-grade chip [7]

Group 1: NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) - NIO's 4Q25 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 34.7 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 75.9%, and vehicle deliveries of 124,800 units, achieving a gross margin of 18.1% [1] - The company reported its first quarterly GAAP and Non-GAAP operating profit, with cash reserves increasing to 45.9 billion HKD [1] - For 1Q26, despite being a seasonal low period, NIO guided for deliveries of 80,000 to 83,000 units and expects to maintain high gross margins, with a target of 40%-50% sales growth for 2026 [1][2] Group 2: New World Development (新世界发展) - New World Development's first half of the fiscal year 2026 met expectations, with revenue declining by 50% year-on-year to 8.391 billion HKD due to reduced construction income and property delivery volumes [3] - The company reported a narrowed loss attributable to shareholders of 3.73 billion HKD, reflecting a 43.8% decrease, while core operating profit fell by 17.7% to 3.636 billion HKD [3] - The company completed 13.8 billion HKD in attributable contract sales in the first half, exceeding half of the annual target, with strong performance in Hong Kong property sales [4] Group 3: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate sector experienced a traditional sales lull in February, with total sales for the top 100 developers dropping by 31.3% month-on-month to 125.2 billion HKD [7] - The average price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities fell by 3.3% year-on-year in January, while second-hand residential prices dropped by 6.2% [7] - The government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market in the 2026 work report, indicating potential for demand recovery in the secondary market [7]