Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1] Core View - The glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may run with a slight upward trend in oscillations. However, there is a possibility of continued downward pressure after the sentiment fades. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and the cold - repair situation of production lines [4] Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract oscillated and was slightly bullish during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, and the daily - line MA combination formed a golden cross, indicating a short - term slightly bullish signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, and the support was near the middle track of the Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 217,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,924 lots. The intraday high was 1088, the low was 1060, and the closing price was 1087, up 19 yuan/ton or 1.78% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The overall price of the float glass market moved up, but the operations of enterprises in different regions varied. Some enterprises with low inventory raised prices to test the market, while some enterprises made prices negotiable to promote sales. However, downstream operations remained cautious [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 67 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% compared with the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). One glass production line was restarted and ignited this week, but no glass has been produced yet [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% compared with the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually coming to an end [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% compared with the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, up 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, up 3.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, down 5.71 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for cold - repair of some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further shrink. However, the real - estate development investment and the availability of funds in the real - estate industry have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, so the real - estate demand has not improved. In general, the anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support to the market, leading to a rebound in the futures price. But the glass supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price may fluctuate. However, there is a possibility of continued pressure and decline in the later period. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情 Review - Futures market: The glass main contract fluctuated intraday, closing with a doji. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing pattern, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart, and the support was near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 176,000 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 59 lots. The intraday high was 1076, the low was 1054, and the closing price was 1067, down 6 yuan/ton (0.56%) from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: In North China, overall shipments were good, and prices of some specifications were raised; in East China, the trading atmosphere was average, and downstream buyers mainly purchased based on rigid demand; in Central China, most enterprises kept prices stable, while a few raised prices, and downstream buyers were rational in purchasing; in South China, most enterprises maintained stable prices, except for a few with large inventories offering discounts [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1010, with a basis of - 57 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average operating rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There were no production line water - discharges or ignitions this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes (0.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days in terms of conversion were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and the shipments of some enterprises were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the order trends of deep - processing enterprises in the north and south regions diverged. The executable order days in the south increased slightly, with some orders lasting more than 20 days, while the orders in the north and central regions declined [2] - Profit: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - On the supply side, long - term losses of glass production lines are accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans for some production lines to undergo cold - repair before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to contract further. However, this month, both real - estate development investment and capital availability continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction were weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand. In general, the pre - festival stocking expectations of downstream enterprises and the anti - involution sentiment provide short - term support to the market, but the supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved [4]