Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations with a tight liquidity environment, as evidenced by the DR007 weighted average rate of 1.5556% and a 10-year government bond yield of 1.8% [1] - A-share market showed divergence, with the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index and the ChiNext Index increasing by 6.47% and 1.96% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.21% and 1.07% respectively [1] Break-even Situation - The break-even rate for wealth management products has increased, with 26,298 public wealth management products in existence as of September 28, 2025, and 367 of them having a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 1.4% [2] - The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products are 20.41% and 2.82% respectively, while fixed income public wealth management products have a break-even rate of 1.29% [2] - Fixed income products with 2-3 year and 6-12 month terms have slightly higher break-even rates of 2.58% and 2.29% respectively [2] New Issuance Situation - A total of 536 wealth management products were issued by 32 wealth management companies from September 22 to September 26, 2025, marking a 14.78% increase from the previous week [3] - Joint-stock bank wealth management companies led in product issuance, with浦银理财 issuing 42 products, 华夏理财 41 products, and 兴银理财 35 products [3] Product Characteristics - New products primarily consist of R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 8 mixed products issued and no new equity or commodity and financial derivative products [5] - Pricing varied across different term products, with those under 1 month declining by 14 basis points to 1.95%, and 3-6 month and 6-12 month products also seeing declines [5] - Products with terms over 3 years have a pricing of 2.35% [5] Product Strategy - 信银理财 launched two series of products focused on "charity + finance," exploring a path that combines social responsibility with economic benefits [7] - The "安盈象固收稳利共富共创慈善一年封闭式3号" product has a performance benchmark of 2.35%-3.15%, with 80% of returns exceeding the benchmark donated to the 浙江省慈善联合总会 [7] - The "安盈象固收稳利温暖童行一年封闭式33号" product has different share classes with benchmarks of 2.30% and 2.35%, also donating 80% of excess returns, with 10% of donations allocated for management fees [7] Yield Situation - Due to poor bond market performance, fixed income product yields have decreased, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0125% for fixed income products [8] - Mixed and equity products saw average net value growth rates of 0.0515% and 0.7661% respectively, while products with terms over 3 years had the lowest weekly yield at -0.0425% [8] Industry Hotspots - There is a shift in bank wealth management's preference towards equity investments, with an increase in job postings for roles related to equity investment and multi-asset investment [15] - The direct equity allocation scale for wealth management reached a five-year low by mid-2025, while the scale of fund allocations reached a five-year high, indicating a need to consider indirect equity allocations [16] - The issuance of mixed and fixed income products with equity components has significantly increased since August, with expectations of over 100 billion yuan in wealth management funds allocated to equities in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 [16]

26E有望突破35万亿。1、理财产品规模持续波动上涨：自2024年1月至2025年9月初，理财存续规模增 长19%至31.2万亿，存续产品数量增长8%至4.4万支。2、理财投资资产规模：截至1H25，理财投资资产 规模为33万亿，近四个半年度，理财产品资金规模增量相对接近，半年度增量均值为1.32万亿，假设 25E、26E增量维持平稳，则25E、26E理财规模分别有望达34.3万亿、36.9万亿。 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，1H25理财直接权益配置规模(不考虑基金间接配置)已达五年 内低点，而理财配置基金的规模达五年内高点，因此间接配置权益规模也需要考虑。8月以来，混合 类、固收+等含权理财发行量显著提升，预计随着理财规模的稳步上涨，理财配置权益规模(包括直接配 置和通过基金配置)将有稳步抬升，保守测算25下半年以及26全年合计有超千亿理财资金增配权益。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 理财投资规模 3、保守预计25E、26E理财配置权益(考虑基金穿透)占比在2.52%。(1)假设25E、26E理财配置权益(不考 虑基金)占比均与1H25保持一致，为2.41%(理财报告官方数据)。(2)测算25E、26 ...