26E有望突破35万亿。1、理财产品规模持续波动上涨：自2024年1月至2025年9月初，理财存续规模增 长19%至31.2万亿，存续产品数量增长8%至4.4万支。2、理财投资资产规模：截至1H25，理财投资资产 规模为33万亿，近四个半年度，理财产品资金规模增量相对接近，半年度增量均值为1.32万亿，假设 25E、26E增量维持平稳，则25E、26E理财规模分别有望达34.3万亿、36.9万亿。 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，1H25理财直接权益配置规模(不考虑基金间接配置)已达五年 内低点，而理财配置基金的规模达五年内高点，因此间接配置权益规模也需要考虑。8月以来，混合 类、固收+等含权理财发行量显著提升，预计随着理财规模的稳步上涨，理财配置权益规模(包括直接配 置和通过基金配置)将有稳步抬升，保守测算25下半年以及26全年合计有超千亿理财资金增配权益。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 理财投资规模 3、保守预计25E、26E理财配置权益(考虑基金穿透)占比在2.52%。(1)假设25E、26E理财配置权益(不考 虑基金)占比均与1H25保持一致，为2.41%(理财报告官方数据)。(2)测算25E、26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, driven by a shift of household savings into the capital market due to low bank deposit rates and attractive stock dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of August 5, the A-share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, marking the first return to this level since July 2015 [1]. - The number of new A-share accounts surged to 1.96 million in July 2025, representing a 71% year-on-year increase and a 19% month-on-month increase, with a total of 14.56 million new accounts opened in 2025 [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in household savings towards the capital market, driven by a lack of high-yield investment products and the appeal of stocks with cash dividend rates exceeding 3% [1][2]. - The decline in domestic risk-free interest rates and the reduced opportunity cost for households and enterprises investing in the stock market are prompting increased capital inflow into securities [2]. Group 3: Asset Preferences - Equity funds and equity-based financial products are gaining attention due to the improved profitability in the A-share market [3]. - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in early August, followed by a return to an upward trend later in the month, with leading companies likely to confirm improvements in free cash flow [3]. Group 4: Sector Opportunities - Sectors such as branded liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, and food and beverage are anticipated to see valuation recovery as market conditions improve [4]. - New energy sectors, including electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, are expected to rebound due to the current industry adjustments and capacity reductions [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the number of investors holding wealth management products increased by 8.37% year-on-year, reaching 136 million by the end of June [1][4] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products fell to 2.12%, down 68 basis points from 2.8% in the same period last year [1][4] - The total scale of the wealth management market reached 30.67 trillion yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 720 billion yuan [2][3] Investor Trends - The number of personal investors increased by 10.29 million in the first half of the year, indicating a strong influx of new investors [1][4] - The risk appetite of individual investors has shifted, with an increase in the proportion of those with higher risk preferences [4][6] Market Dynamics - The gap between the scale of wealth management products and public funds has widened, with public fund assets totaling 34.39 trillion yuan, a year-to-date increase of 1.56 trillion yuan [2][3] - The growth in wealth management products was primarily driven by the second quarter, contributing approximately 1.53 trillion yuan to the total scale [3] Product Composition - Cash management products have seen a significant decline, with a reduction of nearly 1 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, now accounting for 25.79% of open-ended wealth management products [7][8] - The proportion of risk-rated products has shifted, with a notable increase in the share of higher-risk products [6][9] Asset Allocation - Wealth management products have increased their allocation to public funds, cash, and deposits, while reducing exposure to credit bonds [10][11] - By the end of June, the total investment assets of wealth management products reached 32.97 trillion yuan, with a significant portion allocated to bonds [10][11]

Market Overview - The bond market remains stable with an overall balanced and loose funding environment, with the weighted average of DR007 at 1.50% and the 10-year government bond yield at 1.64% [2] - The A-share market experienced declines due to the Israel-Palestine conflict, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and CSI 300 Index dropping by 0.25%, 0.6%, and 0.25% respectively [2] - The non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemical, and agriculture sectors showed the highest weekly gains [2] Product Performance - As of June 15, 2025, there are 24,038 public wealth management products, with 136 products having a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.57% [3] - The break-even rates for equity and mixed products are 51.28% and 6.51% respectively, while fixed income products have a break-even rate of 0.15% [3] - The break-even rates for fixed income products across various maturities remain low, all below 1%, with the 2-3 year and 6-12 month products having slightly higher rates of 0.35% and 0.2% respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 447 wealth management products were issued by 32 wealth management companies from June 9 to June 13, 2025, with joint-stock banks leading in issuance [4] - New products are primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 10 mixed products issued, accounting for 2.2% [4] - Short-term products with maturities of 6 months or less saw an increase in pricing, with 1-3 month products rising by 0.31 percentage points [4] Yield Performance - All categories of RMB public wealth management products recorded positive returns last week, with fixed income products showing an average net value growth rate of 0.0772% [6] - The average weekly net value growth rates for mixed, equity, and commodity and financial derivative products were 0.2038%, 0.8588%, and 0.942% respectively [6] - Cash management products in RMB, USD, and AUD had average annualized yields of 1.421%, 3.936%, and 3.01% respectively [7] Industry Trends - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached a record high of 31.5 trillion yuan as of the end of May 2025, an increase of 0.19 trillion yuan from April and 1.58 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year [8] - The product structure has significantly changed, with fixed income products becoming the core asset driving the rebound in wealth management scale [8]