另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业（601600）的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受 益，维持健康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入良机，该行对2026 年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5港元上调至34港 元。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 ...

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) after a strong performance in the first half of 2025, raising the 12-month target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29, supported by an optimistic aluminum price outlook [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue increased to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, while net attributable profit rose by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1][2] Financial Health - China Hongqiao's financial condition is improving, with interest coverage ratio significantly rising to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates [2] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024, leading to an implied dividend yield of 7% based on the projected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for fiscal year 2025 [2] Market Outlook - DBS Bank anticipates strong aluminum prices to continue through 2026-2027, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - Management projects the average selling price for electrolytic aluminum in 2025 to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and for alumina between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a robust price outlook [2] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 1.8% [2] Competitive Position - Under China's "anti-involution" guidelines, supply control is expected to strengthen, benefiting leading companies like China Hongqiao from rising average prices and market consolidation [3] - China Hongqiao aims to complete the transfer of approximately 2.2 million tons of capacity to Yunnan by the end of fiscal year 2025, representing 34% of total capacity, enhancing its production cost advantages through an integrated supply chain and increased use of green power [3]