广发证券研报指出，电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。截 至2025年3月末，中国宏桥具有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳，成本下降，预计2026年铝价上涨将带 来公司核心的利润弹性。国泰海通则预计公司未来的股息支付能力将有所增强，该行认为该公司在香港 股市仍是一只极具吸引力的高股息股票。 智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)午后涨超8%，截至发稿，涨8.01%，报38.3港元，成交额14.44亿港 元。 消息面上，美伊冲突正持续发酵。据中信建投证券，中东六国约700万吨电解铝，特别是伊朗近80万吨 电解铝将面临原料输入和成品输出的双向威胁。该行认为，美伊冲突升级对铝的潜在影响或体现为伊朗 减产到中东六国稳定生产受威胁，主要是海上运输通道若遭封锁，氧化铝进不去，电解铝出不来，势必 会造成全球铝供应的缺失。全球电解铝最新库存为162万吨，抗供应冲击的能力较弱，美伊冲突将对铝 价构成上行驱动。 ...

广发证券发布研报称，铝价上涨增厚公司利润，预计中国宏桥（01378）2025-2027年EPS分别为 2.20/3.28/3.29元/股，参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026年12倍PE，合理价值为44.25港币/股，维持"买 入"评级。（备注：汇率为1港元=0.89人民币） 广发证券主要观点如下： 铝价上涨将带来公司利润弹性 据媒体报道，2022-2024年公司年度现金分红比例分别为49%、48%、64%。按照2.3万元含税铝价假 设，2026年公司归母净利润可达327.4亿元，假设分红延续64%，按2月9日市值计算，股息率达6.7%。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期。海外电解铝产量增量超预期。铝土矿、阳极、电力等成本上涨超预期。 再生铝供应超预期。 责任编辑：史丽君 电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。据媒体报道，2025年沪 铝期货均价为20750元/吨（含税），同比上涨4%。截至2026年2月8日，2026年沪铝期货均价已达24117 元/吨（含税）。据中国宏桥财报及其子公司山东宏桥新型材料有限公司信评报告，截至2025年3月末， 公司具有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，铝价上涨增厚公司利润，预计中国宏桥(01378)2025-2027年 EPS分别为2.20/3.28/3.29元/股，参考可比公司估值，给予公司2026年12倍PE，合理价值为44.25港币/ 股，维持"买入"评级。(备注：汇率为1港元=0.89人民币) 期待高分红比例延续 据媒体报道，2022-2024年公司年度现金分红比例分别为49%、48%、64%。按照2.3万元含税铝价假 设，2026年公司归母净利润可达327.4亿元，假设分红延续64%，按2月9日市值计算，股息率达6.7%。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期。海外电解铝产量增量超预期。铝土矿、阳极、电力等成本上涨超预期。 再生铝供应超预期。 铝价上涨将带来公司利润弹性 电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。据媒体报道，2025年沪 铝期货均价为20750元/吨(含税),同比上涨4%。截至2026年2月8日，2026年沪铝期货均价已达24117元/吨 (含税)。据中国宏桥财报及其子公司山东宏桥新型材料有限公司信评报告，截至2025年3月末，公司具 有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳， ...

该行表示，数据显示，2022-2024年公司年度现金分红比例分别为49%、48%、64%。按照2.3万元含税 铝价假设，2026年公司归母净利润可达327.4亿元，假设分红延续64%，按2月9日市值计算，股息率达 6.7%。期待高分红比例延续。 智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)早盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.01%，报37.86港元，成交额2.36亿港 元。 广发证券发布研报称，电解铝需求改善的背景下，供给的强约束将更加突出，铝价上行弹性不可忽视。 截至2025年3月末，中国宏桥具有电解铝产能645.9万吨，产销持稳，成本下降，我们预计2026年铝价上 涨将带来公司核心的利润弹性。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国宏桥(01378)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.32%，报36.74港元，成交额2.08亿港元。 国信证券指出，公司是全球铝产业头部企业，拥有1900万吨氧化铝产能和646万吨电解铝产能，是全球 第二大铝生产商。公司坚持高比例分红，于2025年5月公告未来三年（2025-2027年）股东回报规划：公 司发展阶段属成熟期且无重大资金支出安排的，进行利润分配时，现金分红在本次利润分配中所占比例 最低应达到80%。公司分红比例在铝行业是最高水平。 消息面上，招银国际认为，鉴于全球铝供应短缺格局将在2026至2027年持续，叠加铝价上行与铝土矿价 格下行的双重利好，上调中国宏桥盈利预测，并将其目标价从39港元升至45港元，维持"买入"评级。招 银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支撑 全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026年铝均价同比上涨15%。此外，从盈利表现来看，中国宏桥2025年核 心净利润预计达262.62亿元，同比增长7%；2026年净利润增速将加快至34%，主要驱动力来自铝价上 涨。 ...

国信证券指出，公司是全球铝产业头部企业，拥有1900万吨氧化铝产能和646万吨电解铝产能，是全球 第二大铝生产商。公司坚持高比例分红，于2025年5月公告未来三年(2025-2027年)股东回报规划：公司 发展阶段属成熟期且无重大资金支出安排的，进行利润分配时，现金分红在本次利润分配中所占比例最 低应达到80%。公司分红比例在铝行业是最高水平。 中国宏桥(01378)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.32%，报36.74港元，成交额2.08亿港元。 消息面上，招银国际认为，鉴于全球铝供应短缺格局将在2026至2027年持续，叠加铝价上行与铝土矿价 格下行的双重利好，上调中国宏桥盈利预测，并将其目标价从39港元升至45港元，维持"买入"评级。招 银国际指出，当前中国原铝产能利用率已接近政策上限的99%，同时海外新增产能释放有限，这将支撑 全球铝市维持短缺状态，预计2026年铝均价同比上涨15%。此外，从盈利表现来看，中国宏桥2025年核 心净利润预计达262.62亿元，同比增长7%；2026年净利润增速将加快至34%，主要驱动力来自铝价上 涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global aluminum supply shortage is expected to persist until 2026-2027, leading to an upward adjustment in the profit forecast for China Hongqiao (01378) and an increase in the target price from HKD 39 to HKD 45, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current utilization rate of China's primary aluminum production capacity is nearing the policy limit of 99%, while new overseas production capacity is limited, supporting a sustained global aluminum market shortage [1] - The average aluminum price is projected to increase by 15% year-on-year in 2026, with price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 being raised by 12% and 7%, respectively [1] - Despite an anticipated acceleration in overseas production capacity in 2027, the aluminum shortage is expected to continue, keeping prices at high levels [1] Group 2: Company Performance - China Hongqiao's core net profit for 2025 is expected to reach CNY 26.262 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a projected profit growth rate of 34% in 2026 driven primarily by rising aluminum prices [1] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in aluminum prices will enhance the company's net profit by 2.3% in 2026, while a 1% decrease in coal prices will boost net profit by 0.3% [1] Group 3: Valuation - Based on a forward P/E ratio of 11 times for 2026, the target price for China Hongqiao has been raised to HKD 45, with future stock price increases expected to rely more on profit growth rather than valuation expansion [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 35.30 and a target value of HKD 44.25 [6]. Core Views - The increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity. With improved demand for electrolytic aluminum and constrained supply, the upward potential for aluminum prices should not be overlooked. The average price of Shanghai aluminum futures for 2025 is projected to be RMB 20,750 per ton, a 4% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expected cash dividend ratios of 49%, 48%, and 64% for the years 2022-2024. Assuming a price of RMB 23,000 for aluminum in 2026, the company's net profit could reach RMB 32.74 billion, leading to a dividend yield of 6.7% [8]. - The forecasted EPS for the company for 2025-2027 is expected to be RMB 2.20, RMB 3.28, and RMB 3.29 per share, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable value of HKD 44.25 per share [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company's main revenue is projected to be RMB 133.62 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 156.17 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to RMB 151.18 billion in 2025, and then recovering to RMB 159.87 billion in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 26.91 billion in 2023 to RMB 45.64 billion in 2024, before decreasing to RMB 40.85 billion in 2025, and then increasing to RMB 54.92 billion in 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 11.46 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.37 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decrease to RMB 21.88 billion in 2025, and then a substantial increase to RMB 32.74 billion in 2026 and RMB 32.84 billion in 2027 [4][31]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow due to the booming global renewable energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative, which will support long-term demand growth. The automotive sector is increasingly adopting aluminum for lightweighting, while the photovoltaic sector will continue to drive aluminum demand [9][10]. - On the supply side, the growth of electrolytic aluminum production is limited due to energy constraints and existing capacity ceilings in China. The expected growth rate for electrolytic aluminum supply from 2025 to 2027 is around 1% [10][11]. - Overall, the combination of sustained demand growth and limited supply increases the potential for upward price elasticity in aluminum, which is expected to open up profit growth opportunities for electrolytic aluminum companies [11].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant rise in aluminum prices since November last year, with the Shanghai aluminum futures contract price surpassing 25,000 yuan/ton for the first time on January 13, marking a historical record [1] - The current production capacity of an aluminum processing enterprise in Kunming, Yunnan, is 3.08 million tons per year, with a daily output of approximately 3,500 tons of aluminum ingots [3] - The aluminum processing company is operating at full capacity, with a noticeable increase in order delivery, and products are shipped on the same day they are produced [5] Group 2 - The current spot aluminum prices remain high, and companies are working overtime to meet orders, ensuring product delivery before and after the Spring Festival [7] - An aluminum trader from Anhui noted that the annual price increase for aluminum used to be around 5%, but it has now reached a new high, prompting a more cautious approach to inventory [9] - The trader mentioned that during the initial price increase, many were hesitant to stock up, but strong downstream demand has led to high turnover rates, with daily shipments exceeding 100 tons [11] Group 3 - As of February 5, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23,455 yuan/ton, a rise of approximately 7.94% from 21,730 yuan/ton in early December 2025, while London aluminum surged from 2,800 USD/ton to 3,059 USD/ton, marking a 9.25% increase [13] - Analysts indicate that the domestic electrolytic aluminum price is showing a trend of oscillating upward, with a strong performance continuing into 2026, despite short-term corrections, as the supply-demand balance remains tight [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ming Tai Aluminum (601677), indicates that its product pricing is based on the principle of "aluminum ingot price + processing fee," suggesting that rising aluminum prices will positively impact sales revenue and gross profit [1] Group 1: Pricing Strategy - The company's pricing strategy involves a combination of aluminum ingot prices and processing fees, which are influenced by the technical content and processing methods of the products [1] - Different alloys and specifications of products incur varying processing fees, which can range from several thousand to over ten thousand [1]