花旗研报指出，维持中国宏桥"买入"评级，并将目标价从25.2港元上调至36港元，并维持宏桥为其首选 股。该行认为，尽管年初至今股价表现强劲，但截至11月4日收盘，宏桥2026年预测股息率仍具有吸引 力，为6.7%。花旗预计宏桥将继续受益于铝业毛利长期维持高位，且该股将继续获得估值重估。该行 将中国宏桥2025/26/27年的盈利预测分别上调了+2%/+5%/+7%，至244亿/279亿/303亿元人民币，以反映 更高的铝和氧化铝销量以及更高的铝均价预测。 中国宏桥(01378)涨幅扩大逾10%，高见32.64港元刷新上市新高。截至发稿，涨10.17%，报32.5港元， 成交额11.66亿港元。 消息面上，海外供应扰动不断推升铝价。10月21日，世纪铝业公告其Grundartangi铝冶炼厂故障减产， 涉及产能20万吨。此外，South32公司三季度公告显示，因为公司旗下莫桑比克Mozal铝厂电力合同于 2026年3月到期后，如果没有获得新的电力保障，该冶炼厂可能暂停运营；力拓集团表示其位于澳大利 亚新南威尔士州的Tomago铝冶炼厂正在考虑在现有电力供应合同到期后(2028年底)停止运营。中泰证券 （6009 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-31 电解铝社会库存小幅下滑 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21200元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价21060元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-150元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录21070元/吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-5元/吨至-135元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-30日沪铝主力合约开于21290元/吨，收于21245元/吨，较上一交易日变化-10元/吨，最 高价达21360元/吨，最低价达到21210元/吨。全天交易日成交168592手，全天交易日持仓275967手。 库存方面，截止2025-10-30，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.9万吨，较上一期变化-0.7万吨，仓单库存66418 吨，较上一交易日变化374吨，LME铝库存459525吨，较上一交易日变化-3225吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-30SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2845元/吨，山东价格录得2790元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao's subsidiary Shandong Hongqiao, raising the target price from HKD 26.00 to HKD 35.00 based on strong revenue and profit growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Shandong Hongqiao reported total revenue of CNY 116.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.23%, and a net profit of CNY 19.37 billion, up 23.13% year-on-year [1] - In Q3, net profit reached CNY 6.9 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase and a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase, aligning with expectations; the gross margin expanded by 3 percentage points to 26% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The aluminum industry in China is expected to remain resilient in Q4 due to low inventory, stable upstream supply, and seasonal demand from the power grid, with aluminum prices slightly strengthening [2] - Current spot aluminum prices have risen above CNY 21,000 per ton, while alumina prices remain in the range of CNY 2,800–2,900 per ton, with aluminum profit margins expanding to over CNY 5,000 per ton [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Bank of America has adjusted its aluminum price forecasts, raising the 2025 expectation to CNY 20,600 per ton (+CNY 100 per ton) and the 2026 long-term forecast to CNY 21,000 per ton [2] - The bank has increased its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 by 5%-23%, projecting a net profit of CNY 26 billion for 2025 (up 17% year-on-year) and CNY 30 billion for 2026 (up 15% year-on-year) [2] Group 4: Investment Rationale - Reasons for maintaining the "Buy" rating include a constructive outlook on aluminum prices, attractive dividend yield (6%-7% under a 63% payout ratio), and the expected contribution from the Ximangdu project, which is anticipated to start production by the end of 2025 [3] - The ongoing share buyback program is expected to support the stock price, with the current target price corresponding to a 10x P/E ratio for 2026, which remains attractive compared to Chinese copper companies (12-16x) and gold companies (16-17x) [3]

Core Insights - Aluminum is gaining market attention, with prices nearing $2,900 per ton, marking a three-year high and within the top 5% of the price range from 1990 to 2025, indicating a potential structural shortage in the coming years [1][3] - The global aluminum supply surplus is expected to narrow by 2026, leading to a projected supply deficit of approximately 1.4 million tons by 2027, driven by increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [3][6] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of aluminum, is approaching its production capacity limit of 45 million tons, which could impact global supply dynamics [3][5] Industry Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by electric vehicles, which use about 150 pounds more aluminum than internal combustion engine vehicles, and by the solar power sector, where aluminum is the second-largest metal input after steel [4] - Global aluminum production is facing challenges, particularly in Europe, where smelters are closing due to the expiration of long-term cheap electricity contracts, contributing to a tightening supply situation [6] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player in the aluminum market, with potential plans for new smelting facilities that could increase its production fivefold by 2030, positioning it as the fourth-largest producer globally [7][8] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a dual outcome for the aluminum market: either prices will rise significantly, impacting the global economy, or the supply chain will become increasingly reliant on Chinese companies operating overseas [3][9] - The most likely scenario is a moderate price increase alongside a gradual rise in overseas production from countries like Indonesia, leading to a market adjustment to higher prices and deeper reliance on Chinese supply chains [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [8] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum reported a revenue of 22.32 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.31% year-on-year [5] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2025 was 20,740 yuan per ton, an increase of 5.96% year-on-year and 2.64% quarter-on-quarter, driven by overseas production cuts and domestic inventory reduction [6] - The company is progressing well with its 1.4 million tons electrolytic aluminum green low-carbon efficiency enhancement project, expected to energize the first batch of electrolytic cells by the end of November 2025 [7] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 6.994 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.25% year-on-year and a 5.53% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while net profit reached 1.256 billion yuan, up 24.30% year-on-year and 22.41% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.867 billion, 5.633 billion, and 6.672 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.19, 11.40, and 9.62 [8][10] Market Context - The domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum reached 21,176.67 yuan per ton on October 28, 2025, benefiting the company's revenue and profit [6] - The company is also advancing its alumina project in Indonesia, which has completed environmental assessments and is currently working on port and terminal engineering designs [7]

Core Viewpoint - Alcoa Corporation reported a significant increase in net income for Q3 2025, driven by rising domestic aluminum prices, despite facing challenges from tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached $2.995 billion, up from $2.904 billion year-over-year [2]. - Net income attributable to Alcoa Corporation was $232 million, compared to $90 million in the same period last year, marking a nearly 158% increase [1][2]. - Adjusted net loss was $6 million, down from a profit of $135 million in the previous year [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA was $270 million, a decrease from $455 million year-over-year [1][2]. Production and Operations - Alumina production increased by 4% quarter-over-quarter to 2.5 million tons, attributed to reduced maintenance at Australian refineries [2]. - Aluminum segment production rose by 1% to 579,000 tons, mainly due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Spain [2]. - Total alumina shipments remained flat at 2.2 million tons, while aluminum shipments decreased by 3% due to trade volume adjustments [2]. Major Developments - The net income of $232 million included gains from the sale of Ma'aden joint venture interests, offset by restructuring costs [3]. - The company announced a long-term energy contract with the New York Power Authority and plans to invest approximately $60 million in the Massena smelter [3]. - Alcoa received support from the U.S. and Australian governments for the joint development of a gallium plant at the Wagerup refinery [3]. Market Context - U.S. aluminum prices have outpaced international markets, with Midwest premiums soaring 113% since early June, influenced by tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][4]. - The company anticipates an additional $50 million increase in tariff costs for Q4 2025, indicating ongoing trade impacts [3]. Future Outlook - Alcoa expects total alumina production to remain between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons for 2025, with aluminum production projected at 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons [4]. - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA for the alumina segment is expected to improve by approximately $80 million, while the aluminum segment may face a $20 million adverse impact due to operational inefficiencies [4].

Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) has remained stable, with a mild increase of 0.5% from September to October, indicating a rising trend in aluminum prices supported by various factors [1] - Following a significant fire at Novelis' Oswego plant, which produces about 40% of the aluminum sheets for the automotive industry, the overall outlook for U.S. aluminum prices has changed, with Midwest premiums reaching a historical high of $0.77 per pound as of October 6 [2][3] - The LME three-month aluminum price increased by 2.61% last month, reaching its highest level since March, reflecting a broader trend of rising prices among other base metals [6] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - The fire at Novelis has severely weakened U.S. aluminum production capacity, with the plant expected to remain offline until early next year, impacting the automotive supply chain significantly [2] - U.S. aluminum imports have been declining, with a 3.69% decrease in aluminum sheet imports from February to August compared to the same period in 2024, contributing to domestic supply tightness [4] - Overall, aluminum product imports have decreased by 10.17%, indicating that the U.S. remains a net importer of aluminum, necessitating overseas supply to meet demand [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The imposition of tariffs has intensified the impact of supply disruptions on the market, leading buyers to increasingly seek domestic producers for raw materials [5] - Despite the current upward trend in aluminum prices, ongoing inflationary pressures and a softening demand environment may challenge the sustainability of this trend in the coming months [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the industry is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The decline in aluminum ingot inventory indicates a more limited downward adjustment of aluminum prices. In the long - term supply - constrained context, high industry profits do not restrict price increases. Attention should be paid to price increases driven by stronger - than - expected actual consumption during the peak season [7]. - For alumina, the domestic spot market is sluggish with slightly falling prices, and the import window is not open. The increase in warehouse receipt inventory and the easing of supply make it more difficult to squeeze positions. With the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue. The focus is on market tendering [7][8]. - For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can still be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton. - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,580 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium is - 25 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Aluminum Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,570 yuan/ton, the closing price was 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,660 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,530 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,523 lots, and the open interest was 233,902 lots [3]. Inventory - As of August 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 596,000 tons, with a change of - 1,100 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory was 59,890 tons, with a change of - 3,048 tons. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, with no change [3]. Alumina Spot Price - On August 21, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3]. Alumina Futures - On August 21, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract was 3,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3,124 yuan/ton, with a change of 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The highest price was 3,179 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 326,961 lots, and the open interest was 185,979 lots [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 21, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,300 tons [5]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly output of aluminum rods has been rising from a low level for a month. The social inventory of aluminum rods reached its peak in mid - July, then fluctuated, and started to decline in early August. The aluminum ingot inventory declined on Thursday and is expected to enter the destocking cycle. The micro - data shows a clear transition from the off - season to the peak season [7]. Alumina - The domestic spot market is inactive with slightly falling prices, while the overseas market is relatively active, but the import window is not open. The warehouse receipt inventory has increased to 76,000 tons. With the easing of supply, it is more difficult to squeeze positions. Due to the expected oversupply and high inventory, the price of bauxite is difficult to rise [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The spread between AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 450 yuan/ton. Consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend. Attention can be paid to the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract [9] 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [10] - Arbitrage: Long - short spread arbitrage in Shanghai aluminum and long AD11 short AL11 [10]

展望未来，星展银行预计铝价强势有望延续，这将凸显中国宏桥的竞争优势。该行指出，中国宏桥管理 层预计2025年电解铝平均售价为20600-21300元/吨，氧化铝平均售价为3200-3300元/吨，显示铝价前景 持续强劲。2025年上半年，全球铝需求预计增长3.1%，超过1.8%的供应增长。 星展银行认为，在中国"反内卷"指导方针下，供应管控将加强，龙头企业有望从平均售价上涨和市场整 合中受益。中国宏桥凭借其一体化供应链和绿色电力占比提升，生产成本优势可能进一步增强。据悉， 公司目标在2025财年前完成约220万吨产能向云南的转移，占总产能的34%。 报告指出，2025年上半年中国宏桥业绩表现抢眼。营收增至810亿元人民币，同比增长10.1%，这主要 得益于氧化铝和铝产品的平均售价(ASP)上涨以及销量增长。公司毛利率同比提升1.5个百分点至25.7%; 净归属利润同比增长35%至123.6亿元人民币，净利润率同比提高3个百分点至17%。 在财务状况方面，中国宏桥的财务状况趋于健康。得益于债务结构优化和利率改善，公司利息覆盖倍数 大幅提升至17.6倍，并计划长期持续降低债务水平。虽然2025年上半年未派发中期股 ...

【纠错】 【责任编辑:黄海荣 】 国海证券研报指出，短期来看，云南复产接近完成，产量维持高位，但库存仍在低位，旺季将至，铝价 进入上涨通道，放大企业盈利空间，而政策利好信号不断，需求有继续向好预期；长期来看，考虑到未 来铝行业供给受限，需求仍有增长点，行业或将维持高景气，维持行业"推荐"评级。建议关注云铝股 份、神火股份、天山铝业、中国铝业。 ...