1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in iron ore prices is mainly driven by the enhanced supply control expectations, leading to limited liquidity of some spot varieties and prominent structural issues. In the short - term, factors such as the improvement of demand after the Two Sessions, the significant rebound of hot metal production, and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iran conflict support the iron ore prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the price trend highly depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will be a key factor restricting the upward movement of prices. The positive spread is running strongly, and short - term negotiation progress needs to be continuously monitored, with cautious operation advised. The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Rate - For I2701, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 762.5, up 3.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I01 - I05 was - 56.5, unchanged from March 20. - For I2605, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 819.0, up 3.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I05 - I09 was - 39, down 2 from March 20. - For I2609, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 786.5, up 5.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I09 - I01 was 24.0, up 2 from March 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot - On March 23, 2026, the price of Jinbuba powder was 750, up 2 from March 20; PB powder was 797, up 2; Newman powder was 739, up 2; etc. The optimal delivery product was Newman powder, with a price of 792 on March 23, up 18 from March 20 [1]. 3.3 Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index for the current month: on March 23, 2026, it was 106.74, up 0.43 from March 20. The import profit of Karara powder decreased by 36 from March 20 to March 23. - Mysteel 62% index for 1 - month: on March 23, 2026, it was 108.23, up 1.08 from March 20. The import profit of Newman powder decreased by 28 from March 20 to March 23 [1]. 3.4 MS Inventory - On March 20, 2026, the total inventory was 17098, down 89 from March 13; Australian ore inventory was 8324, down 5; Brazilian ore inventory was 5074, down 31; etc. The Australian iron ore shipped globally was 2458, up 74 from March 13; the Brazilian iron ore shipped was 549, down 23; the arrival volume was 2271.6, up 56.6 [1]. 3.5 Night - session Review - The futures iron ore i2605 closed at 816 yuan/ton, and i2609 closed at 786 yuan/ton. The spread between iron ore 5 - 9 was 30 yuan. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 (+2) yuan/ton, and the price of the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, after discounting to the warehouse receipt (warehouse) was 780 yuan [2]. 3.6 Important Information - On March 23, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 69.70 tons, a 43.6% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.00 tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous day. - From March 16 - 22, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2383.1 tons, a 66.1 - ton increase from the previous period. - From March 16 - 22, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3144.3 tons, a 95.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2559.4 tons, a 95.0 - ton increase from the previous period. - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the downstream resumption progress after the festival was slightly slower than last year. The trading volume of construction steel in Shanghai decreased by 17.78% year - on - year. It is estimated that the construction steel inventory in Shanghai will enter the de - stocking channel in early April. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous estimate [2].

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) after a strong performance in the first half of 2025, raising the 12-month target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29, supported by an optimistic aluminum price outlook [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue increased to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, while net attributable profit rose by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1][2] Financial Health - China Hongqiao's financial condition is improving, with interest coverage ratio significantly rising to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates [2] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024, leading to an implied dividend yield of 7% based on the projected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for fiscal year 2025 [2] Market Outlook - DBS Bank anticipates strong aluminum prices to continue through 2026-2027, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - Management projects the average selling price for electrolytic aluminum in 2025 to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and for alumina between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a robust price outlook [2] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 1.8% [2] Competitive Position - Under China's "anti-involution" guidelines, supply control is expected to strengthen, benefiting leading companies like China Hongqiao from rising average prices and market consolidation [3] - China Hongqiao aims to complete the transfer of approximately 2.2 million tons of capacity to Yunnan by the end of fiscal year 2025, representing 34% of total capacity, enhancing its production cost advantages through an integrated supply chain and increased use of green power [3]