我们预计公司25/26/27 年EPS 分别为1.30/1.85/2.57 元。我们采用PE 估值方法，考虑到公司业绩增速强 劲、收入长期增速有望超过行业平均增速，我们给予公司2025 年PE 倍数50 倍，目标价每股64.92元人 民币，按照港币兑人民币汇率0.92 计算，折合目标价每股70.56港元，维持"增持"评级。 公司分子漏斗项目数不断扩大，新签订单保持快速增长。2025 年上半年，公司新签37 个综合项目，新 增了3 个PPQ 项目，综合项目总数增长至225 个（+58 个），其中IND 后项目总数增长至2025年6 月30 日的103 个（+27 个）。公司未完成订单总额达13.29 亿美元，同比增长57.9%，北美地区占总未完成订 单的一半以上，新签合同金额同比增长48.4%，其中北美地区增速超过其他地区。 机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：余文心/周航/陈铭/吴晗 本报告导读： 药明合联业绩持续保持高速增长，预计到2029 年药明合联资本开支将超过70 亿元人民币，除现有及已 规划的产能外，预计将在现有的偶联制剂和载荷连接子产能基础上实现翻倍，彰显公司长期发展信心。 投资要点： 长期CAPEX 持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Shuangma is actively involved in the pharmaceutical sector through direct investments and participation in funds, focusing on biopharmaceuticals and innovative technologies [1] Group 1: Direct Investments - The company’s direct investment primarily targets biopharmaceutical research and production enterprises, specifically Shenzhen Jianyuan, which specializes in the development and production of peptide raw materials and contract development and manufacturing (CDMO) [1] - Shenzhen Jianyuan also engages in the research and production of beauty peptides, indicating a diverse product range within the biopharmaceutical sector [1] Group 2: Fund Participation - Sichuan Shuangma participates in the Shanghai Hexie Huizi Fund, which adopts a venture capital strategy aimed at investing in cutting-edge technology innovation companies, particularly in new drug development and biotechnology [1] - The focus on biopharmaceutical funds highlights the company's commitment to advancing in the pharmaceutical industry through strategic investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Wangshan Wangshui Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (Wangshan Wangshui) is under market scrutiny due to its core product, TPN171, also known as Angweida, which has recently been approved for sale. The company has submitted its application for a second time to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, facing significant challenges including a projected revenue decline in 2024 and reliance on major clients for income [1][2][4]. Group 1: Product and Pipeline - Wangshan Wangshui has a total of nine innovative assets focusing on antiviral, neuropsychiatric, and reproductive health fields [1][2]. - TPN171, a PDE5 inhibitor, was approved in Uzbekistan in September 2022 and in China in July 2023 for treating erectile dysfunction (ED) [2]. - The company also has VV116, which is approved for COVID-19 treatment in China and Uzbekistan, but its contribution to revenue is diminishing [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of approximately 200 million yuan, 11.83 million yuan, and 12.96 million yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and the first four months of 2025, respectively, with net losses of about 6.43 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 112 million yuan during the same periods [3][4]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a significant reduction in licensing income, which varies based on licensing arrangements and milestones [3]. Group 3: Client Dependency - Wangshan Wangshui has a high dependency on major clients, with revenues from the top five clients accounting for 99.3%, 86.6%, and 91.2% of total revenue for the years 2023, 2024, and the first four months of 2025, respectively [4][5]. - The largest client, referred to as Client A, contributed over 51% of revenue in 2023, with this figure increasing to 65.1% in 2024 [4][5]. Group 4: Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - The company plans to use funds raised from its IPO for product development and capacity expansion, including the construction of a new factory in Qingdao, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [6][8]. - The current production facility in Lianyungang has low capacity utilization rates, with capsule production at 0% and tablet production at 1.3% for the first four months of 2025 [7][8]. - The company anticipates that as its products gain market share and more candidates enter commercialization, production line utilization will gradually improve [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the results of the I/II clinical study for BDB-001 injection, indicating significant clinical advantages in hormone reduction, particularly in the complete remission rate [1] Group 1: Clinical Study Results - The BDB-001 injection shows notable improvement in the complete remission rate for patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis [1] - The company plans to actively advance to the Phase III clinical trial to further validate the clinical benefits for AAV patients [1] Group 2: Industry Characteristics - The innovative biopharmaceutical sector is characterized by high technology, high risk, and high added value [1] - There are inherent risks in research and development, including potential failures and delays in approval processes [1]

Group 1 - Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co., Ltd. announced the transfer of approximately 28.47 million shares, representing 21.91% of the total share capital after excluding repurchased shares, to Shanghai Wankexin Biotechnology Partnership for a consideration of 1.85 billion yuan [1] - Following the share transfer, Wang Zhentao will delegate his voting rights and other rights associated with 10.50 million shares, representing 8.08% of the total share capital, to Wankexin Biotechnology, resulting in Wankexin holding approximately 29.99% of the voting rights in Kanghua [1] - The change in control will shift from Wang Zhentao to Wankexin Biotechnology, which has no actual controller, indicating a transition to a state of no actual controller for Kanghua [1] Group 2 - Wankexin Biotechnology was established on July 8, 2025, with Shanghai Biomedical M&A Private Equity Fund holding approximately 80.21% of its partnership shares, indicating strong backing from significant investors [2] - The Shanghai Biomedical M&A Fund, which includes major contributors like Shanghai Guotou Xiandai Private Equity Fund, aims to empower leading enterprises in the biopharmaceutical sector, focusing on innovative drugs and high-end medical devices [2][3] - The entry of Wankexin as a new controlling entity is expected to enhance Kanghua's strategic flexibility and attract diverse resources and collaboration opportunities, supported by the financial strength of its new shareholders [3] Group 3 - Kanghua Biological specializes in the research, production, and sales of human vaccines, being the first in China to produce human diploid cell rabies vaccines, showcasing its strong R&D capabilities [3] - The company has established a solid brand image and stable customer base in the biopharmaceutical sector, although it faces challenges such as intense competition and rapid technological advancements [4] - The financial backing from Wankexin, which has connections to Shanghai state-owned assets, is anticipated to provide substantial support for Kanghua's R&D investments and capacity expansion [4]

Core Insights - The AI pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant growth, with global AI+pharmaceutical financing events reaching 128 in 2024, totaling $5.795 billion, marking increases of 23.08% and 60.93% compared to 2023, respectively [1] - In China, the AI pharmaceutical financing events are concentrated in economically developed regions such as the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and the Yangtze River Delta [1] - The Shanghai Zhangjiang "Pharmaceutical Valley" is a key player in the domestic pharmaceutical landscape, housing nearly 50 AI new drug companies and facilitating the entry of five AI drugs into clinical phase II [1][3] - The biopharmaceutical industry in China is in a golden development period, driven by AI and supportive policies, focusing on clinical value and commercializing more innovative drugs [1][3] Investment Trends - In Q1 2025, at least 19 financing events occurred in China's innovative drug sector, with total financing exceeding 2 billion yuan, highlighting the capital's interest in AI pharmaceuticals and cutting-edge technologies [1] - The global AI pharmaceutical market is projected to grow from $792 million in 2021 to $1.758 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 30.45%, and expected to reach $2.994 billion by 2026 [4] - The domestic AI pharmaceutical market is anticipated to grow from 6.7 million yuan in 2019 to 562 million yuan in 2024, with a remarkable CAGR of 53.01% [4] Technological Advancements - AI technologies are significantly improving drug development efficiency, with AI-generated drug molecules showing an 80%-90% success rate in phase I clinical trials, compared to a historical average of 50% [2] - AI can save the pharmaceutical industry up to $26 billion annually in R&D costs, with specific examples showing reductions in drug discovery time and costs [2] - AI is creating strategic opportunities for startups, allowing them to establish early advantages in niche areas by leveraging AI platforms for innovation [3] Challenges and Regulatory Landscape - Despite the growth, the AI pharmaceutical sector faces challenges related to high-risk and long-cycle drug development, with no approved AI drugs yet [1][5] - Data governance and compliance issues are significant hurdles, as the healthcare data landscape is fragmented and subject to strict regulations [5] - The Chinese government is working on initiatives to improve health information connectivity and establish a unified health information platform to facilitate data flow while ensuring privacy and security [5] Business Models and Collaborations - The AI pharmaceutical sector is moving beyond conceptual discussions to practical applications, with various business models emerging, including AI+SaaS, AI+CXO, and AI+Biotech [6] - Companies are increasingly engaging in substantial business development (BD) deals, with examples of partnerships exceeding $500 million for drug development and commercialization rights [6][7] - The collaboration between CROs and innovative pharmaceutical companies is expected to deepen, focusing on shared interests and enhancing the overall value chain [7] International Expansion - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are increasingly looking to expand internationally, with successful examples like BeiGene and Legend Biotech establishing local production capabilities [8] - Challenges in international markets include regulatory barriers and differences in clinical data recognition, necessitating enhanced cooperation between countries to facilitate product approvals [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 687 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.39%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 30.89% to 110 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 171 million yuan, up 8.76% year-over-year, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1.7% [1] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the commercialization of mouse models was 400 million yuan, up 9.0% year-over-year; functional efficacy revenue was 150 million yuan, up 14.6%; custom breeding revenue was 85 million yuan, up 8.0%; and model customization revenue was 34 million yuan, down 3.4% [2] - The overall gross margin for the main business in 2024 was 62.0%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from 2023 [2] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue reached 572 million yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 59.4%, reflecting an 8.3% year-over-year increase [3] - The company expanded its overseas market, generating 114 million yuan in revenue, a 22.5% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 75.3%, outperforming domestic business [3] - The overall sales expense ratio increased by 2.39 percentage points to 15.60%, impacting net profit, although the sales net profit margin improved in Q1 2025 to 17.55%, up 1.56 percentage points from 2024 [3] Global Capacity Planning - By the end of 2024, the company had seven major bases in China with a total capacity of approximately 280,000 cages, achieving full coverage [4] - New production capacity of 80,000 cages in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangdong was nearly fully utilized [4] - The company plans to enhance its overseas presence by seeking suitable areas in Europe for animal facility leasing, in addition to its existing facility in San Diego, USA [4] - The company has established sales in over 20 countries and collaborated with eight of the top ten global pharmaceutical companies, while also adding over 200 research users and 600 industrial clients domestically, and 80 research users and 90 industrial clients overseas [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to weak global biopharmaceutical R&D investment and increased overseas expenditures, the EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 0.34 yuan and 0.40 yuan, respectively, representing reductions of 48% and 50% [4] - An additional EPS forecast for 2027 is set at 0.47 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 28, and 24 for 2025-2027 [4] - Given the significant stock price correction and the current low valuation, along with steady progress in overseas business, the company maintains a "buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Junshi Biosciences (688180) reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 501 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -235 million yuan, improving by 17.01% compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 501 million yuan, up 31.46% from 381 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was -235 million yuan, an improvement of 17.01% from -283 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - Gross margin increased to 81.24%, a rise of 13.44% year-on-year, while net margin improved to -51.86%, up 34.1% [1] - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 332 million yuan, accounting for 66.34% of revenue, a decrease of 19.38% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share improved to -0.24 yuan, a 17.24% increase from -0.29 yuan [1] Cash Flow and Debt - Operating cash flow per share was -0.02 yuan, showing a significant improvement of 93.54% year-on-year [1] - The company’s cash and cash equivalents decreased by 44.69% to 2.522 billion yuan [1] - Interest-bearing liabilities increased by 10.32% to 3.325 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 30.52% [3] Business Model and R&D - The company’s business model is primarily driven by research and development, with a focus on innovative drug development [3] - Junshi Biosciences is advancing its dual-specific antibody JS207, which targets PD-1 and VEGF, with clinical trials approved for various cancers [5]

Group 1 - The core stock price of Fudan Zhangjiang (688505) closed at 8.11 yuan, up 0.12% from the previous week, with a market cap of 8.583 billion yuan [1] - The company ranks 52 out of 152 in the chemical pharmaceutical sector and 1803 out of 5140 in the A-share market [1] - The company actively communicates with investors through various platforms to ensure transparency and timely disclosure of business progress [1][3] Group 2 - Fudan Zhangjiang focuses on innovative research and development in biomedicine, establishing multiple technology platforms including photodynamic technology and ADC drug development [1][3] - R&D expenses increased by approximately 70 million yuan compared to the same period last year, with several ADC drug projects entering clinical stages [1][3] - The FDA018 antibody-drug conjugate project has entered phase III clinical trials, while the FZ-AD005 antibody-drug conjugate project has entered phase I clinical trials [1] Group 3 - The company has entered into a structured deposit agreement with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, investing a total of 220 million yuan [2][3] - The structured deposit product has a low-risk rating, with a term of 89 days and an expected annualized return of 0.85%-2.40% [2]