，10月进口糖增加明显，据海关总署显示，10月我国进口糖量为75万吨，重新回到年内高位水平，进口供 应压力明显，短期糖价暂无止跌迹象，预计弱势延续。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2025-11-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5387 | 17 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 406329 | -11410 430 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production and weak export data, while the Dalian palm oil futures are expected to try to break through 8900. - Soybean oil: The global crude oil supply - demand forecast in 2026 by OPEC has affected the soybean oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the spot basis is likely to remain stable [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak, but there is an expectation of strengthening in the market tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA monthly report is expected to show little change in the ending stocks. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [7]. 2.4 Corn Industry - Corn prices in the Northeast are rising locally, and those in the North China are stable with a slight upward trend. The price increase and decrease are limited due to supply pressures and cost and policy support. The short - term corn price may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is restricted [8]. 2.5 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are falling, and the domestic cotton price is likely to be in a range - bound pattern due to hedging pressure and cost support, with weak downstream demand but rigid raw - material demand from textile enterprises [11]. 2.6 Sugar Industry - Brazilian rainfall may affect sugarcane crushing, and India's sugar export has uncertainties. The domestic sugar market is expected to be in a price - oscillation state, with the new - season sugarcane crushing in Guangxi likely to be postponed [13][14]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs remains under pressure as the laying - hen inventory is high in November. The consumption is weak, but the egg price is at a bottom - range, and 2512 short positions can be gradually closed at a low price below 3000 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8560, the futures price of Y2601 rose 0.34% to 8316, and the basis decreased 10.29% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong dropped 0.58% to 8570, the futures price of P2601 rose 0.09% to 8752, and the basis decreased 46.77% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu rose 1.48% to 10260, the futures price of OI601 rose 1.37% to 9975, and the basis rose 5.56% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased 0.89%, that of palm oil decreased 13.33%, and that of rapeseed oil increased 9.11% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of pig 2605 rose 0.82% to 12235, and that of pig 2601 rose 0.55% to 11860. - Spot: The spot prices in most regions decreased, such as in Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - The sample - point slaughter volume decreased 0.74%, the white - strip price decreased 0.53%, and the piglet price decreased 15% [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3050, the futures price of M2601 rose 0.39% to 3071, and the basis decreased 133.33% [7]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 decreased 0.08% to 2492, and the basis increased 33.33% [7]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.78%, and that of rapeseed meal increased 1.61% [7]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Corn: The futures price of corn 2601 rose 0.41% to 2186, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price rose 0.46% to 2200, and the basis rose 7.69% [8]. - Corn starch: The futures price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.68% to 2507, and the basis decreased 85% [8]. 3.4.2 Industry Indicators - The import profit of corn increased 4.66%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased 14.54% [8]. 3.5 Cotton Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased 0.22% to 13495, and that of cotton 2601 decreased 0.18% to 13490. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased 0.38% to 14614, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased 0.22% to 14819 [11]. 3.5.2 Industry Indicators - The commercial inventory increased 70.4% to 293.06 tons, and the industrial inventory increased 9.7% to 88.82 tons [11]. 3.6 Sugar Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 rose 0.62% to 5512, and that of sugar 2605 rose 0.41% to 5433. - Spot: The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5660, and the Kunming spot price remained unchanged at 5540 [13]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased 12.03% to 1116.21 tons, and the national sugar sales increased 9.17% to 1048.00 tons [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased 0.75% to 3040, and the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased 1.72% to 3322. - The egg - producing area price decreased 0.25% to 2.99 yuan per catty [16]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - The egg - chicken feed ratio decreased 1.68% to 2.34, and the breeding profit decreased 8.51% to - 26.52 yuan per chicken [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday as hopes that the US government shutdown might end soon boosted the commodity market. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed up 0.1 cent, or 0.70%, at 14.20 cents per pound [2]. - Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a 13% year - on - year increase. However, from the start of the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March) to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 2195.68 million tons, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease. The supply pressure remains significant, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to enter a seasonal decline [2]. - In the domestic market, due to import quotas and policy issues, the price decline is not obvious. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction. The new crushing season in most areas starts in mid - to late November, with an expected delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar. The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the October import data [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 376,327 lots, an increase of 3084 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7721, an increase of 58. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,072 lots, an increase of 4379 lots [2]. - The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 1183, a decrease of 122 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 4002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 5068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons. Brazil's total sugar exports were 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1588 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 1533 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 467 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.85%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 68.57 million tons of sugar in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume of 13.71 million tons, a 23% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 17.84 million tons in November of the previous year. The total export volume in November of the previous year was 339.02 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's concern has eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is significant, but the raw sugar price has limited rebound due to overall production increase. Domestic spot prices are continuously falling, with average trading volume, and downstream demand is in seasonal decline. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the futures price is gradually supported by cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5428 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 426415 hands (a decrease of 15033 hands), the number of warehouse receipts is 8407 (a decrease of 11), the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 75785 hands, and the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4254 yuan/ton (a decrease of 66 yuan/ton) [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 5396 yuan/ton (a decrease of 87 yuan/ton), the estimated import price of Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 5470 yuan/ton, the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5740 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), the spot price in Nanning is 5790 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5800 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares (a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares), the national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The national sugar sales rate is 72.69% (an increase of 7.47 percentage points), the monthly sugar import volume is 550000 tons (a decrease of 280000 tons), the total Brazilian sugar exports are 324.58 million tons (an increase of 96 million tons), the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1324 yuan/ton, and the price difference (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 239 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons (an increase of 4.41 million tons), and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07% (a decrease of 0.41 percentage points), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.07% (a decrease of 0.41 percentage points), the 20 - day historical volatility is 8.01% (a decrease of 0.17 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.15% (a decrease of 0.04 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550000 tons, a decrease of about 280000 tons from the previous month and a 35.8% increase year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a 270000 - ton or 9.4% increase year - on - year. In the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugar - cane, a 5.18% year - on - year increase, produced 3.14 million tons of sugar, a 10.76% year - on - year increase, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish view on the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract [2] Report's Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rebounded after hitting a nearly four - and - a - half - year low on Tuesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.27 cents, or 1.70%, to settle at 15.88 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as of September, the combined industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan was 64.68 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 60%. The inventory was significantly higher than that of the previous crushing season. Additionally, sugar mills in the northern beet - producing areas have started production, and the forecasted arrival quantity of out - of - quota raw sugar in September is 460,000 tons, indicating an increasing supply. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,403 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 433,188 lots, with an increase of 11,032 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,438, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,631 lots, a decrease of 7,196 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,426 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,621 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,647 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 5,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it is 5,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 89.98%. The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.81%, and that of at - the - money put options is 8.81%, an increase of 0.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.26%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.18%, an increase of 0.49% [2] Industry News - India's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is approaching. The impact of floods in major producing states needs to be evaluated, and institutions are cautious about the production volume [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows that in August 2025, China's sugar imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a slight expected increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. Although the typhoon in the western Guangdong region brought strong winds and heavy rains, its impact on sugarcane is less than last year's typhoon, and the short - term market sentiment may recover. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 431,349 hands, down 7,657 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 9,793, down 61; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 79,526 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Thai sugar (within quota) are not provided; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 4,384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is not provided [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 374.4 million tons, up 15.03 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,306 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,348 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 124 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 178 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, up 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,775.8 million tons, down 20.8 million tons [2]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.54%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.34%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 7. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed almost flat, pressured by the prospect of sufficient supply, closing down 0.02 cents, or 0.10%, at 16.13 cents per pound. Overnight, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.60% [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Internationally, the 10 - month white sugar delivery volume was 260,750 tons, with 200,000 tons from the UAE, 36,950 tons from India, and 5,000 tons from China. The most active 3 - month raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.29 cents, or 1.75%, to settle at 15.90 cents per pound. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 113,880 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year - on - year acceleration of 0.65 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6,010 tons. Currently, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is basically over, and northern sugar mills are about to start production. There is no obvious positive driving force in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,474 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the main contract position was 432,454 lots, an increase of 44,260 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,629 sheets, a decrease of 359 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 64,401 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 sheets; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,576 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,630 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Nanning, it was 5,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,381 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 143 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.66%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 8.65%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.61%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 6.29%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of August 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.06 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 10.686%; the sugar production was 3.87 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. As of September 1, 2025/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region was 40.3942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, the cumulative sugar production was 2.6758 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 52.76%, compared with 49.09% in the same period last year [2].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report [1][2] Core View - Internationally, the expiration delivery volume of the October white sugar contract on the ICE was 260,750 tons, with 200,000 tons from the UAE, 36,950 tons from India, and 5,000 tons from China. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales nationwide were 9.9998 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, 0.65 percentage points faster year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons. Currently, the Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling is basically over, and northern sugar mills are about to start production. With no obvious short - term positive drivers, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,529 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position was 388,194 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts was 10,988, a decrease of 280; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 56,232 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 5,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; in Nanning, it was 5,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 5,970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.78%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 9.81%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 5.73%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.3%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the central - southern region of Brazil, the average sugar cane yield per unit area decreased by 8% year - on - year as of August this crushing season. The ICE raw sugar futures fell on Tuesday due to concerns that India's sugar exports might exceed expectations. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on the ICE closed down 0.10 cents, or 0.8%, at 15.90 cents per pound [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 9.9998 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1388 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, a year-on-year increase of 0.65 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 116,230 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6,010 tons. The downstream is in the double - festival stocking stage, and it is expected that rigid demand will support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5,547 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the main contract position was 385,623 lots, an increase of 4,016 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 11,268, a decrease of 57; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 59,144 lots, a decrease of 3,792 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,376 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,611 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou were 5,865 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), 5,890 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 5,970 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons. The national industrial sugar inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 85.59%, an increase of 1 percentage point. The monthly sugar import volume was 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The total sugar exports from Brazil were 3.744 million tons, an increase of 150,300 tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 1,402 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar was 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 222 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 410,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.7966 million tons, a decrease of 46,200 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.39%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points; that of put options was 8.43%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 5.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.28%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points [2] Industry News - As of September 9, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 139,610 lots, an increase of 53,805 lots from the previous week. The long position was 170,080 lots, a decrease of 14,220 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 309,690 lots, an increase of 39,585 lots from the previous week. Indonesia has suspended issuing raw sugar import licenses for the rest of the year. The most actively traded October raw sugar futures on ICE rose 0.21 cents, or 1.30%, to settle at 16.0 cents per pound [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are under pressure due to the good production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and falling oil prices, resulting in a weak downward adjustment of raw sugar prices. In the domestic market, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, releasing import pressure. The demand side has备货 demand in the food and beverage industry due to hot summer weather, and seasonal consumption of cold drinks is picking up. The inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. Overall, the weak trend of the outer market drags down the domestic sugar futures price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is mainly weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 172,520 lots, a decrease of 12,539 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 18,802, a decrease of 458; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,036 lots, a decrease of 6371 lots. The estimated import and processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4433 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4508 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5630 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; in Nanning is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou is 6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 335.9 million tons, an increase of 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 1373 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 153 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.64%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.64%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.36%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July in Guangxi, the single - month sugar sales volume was 355,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 217,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 113,000 tons. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales volume in Guangxi was 5.4961 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 396,600 tons; the sales rate was 85.01%, a year - on - year increase of 2.51 percentage points. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 48.5954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5847 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 6.465 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,600 tons; the sugar - making rate was 13.30%, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 percentage points. On Tuesday, the October ICE raw sugar contract closed down 0.98%. On Wednesday, the sugar 2509 contract closed down 0.42% [2].