白糖产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5281 | 22 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 439946 | 12538 -9316 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 6005 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -81404 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 4563 | 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 吨) 现货市场 | | 4029 | 7 | 4074 | 7 9 | | | 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 5103 | 9 | 5162 | | | /吨) | 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5220 | 20 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) /吨) ...

榨糖厂73家全部开榨，当前出糖率差异较大；云南开榨糖厂已达38家，同比增加7家。不过市场预估12月广 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 西糖产量同比大减，销量预估分歧较大，12月产销数据出炉前，短期暂且观望为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 白糖产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5259 | 2 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 427408 | 484 ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) -38 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 5328 | | 329240 | -941 | | 期货市场 | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | 0 | | -45977 | 6915 | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) | 183 | 0 | | | | 吨) | 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ -15 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 4106 | 吨) | 4152 | -15 | | 现货市场 | -20 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | 5203 | | 5264 | -19 | | | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) -30 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5380 | /吨) | 5430 | -30 | | | 广西柳州 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information is provided in the given content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints Oils and Fats - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals remain bearish, but the high cost of imported soybeans, weak performance of soybean meal, and reluctance of oil mills to lower basis quotes will keep basis quotes stable. The final decision of the US EPA on the biofuel obligation in 2026 will be a key factor affecting the long - term demand for soybean oil. Palm oil prices are under pressure from potential inventory growth due to increased production and slow exports. The Dalian palm oil futures will choose a new breakthrough direction, and the trend of Malaysian palm oil will have an impact on it [1]. Meals - The domestic soybean meal supply remains loose. Although downstream feed enterprises are replenishing their inventories from January to March and there is continuous procurement of US soybeans, it is difficult to see an upward trend in the market. The impact of domestic policy - based procurement on US soybeans is uncertain, and the soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile with dull short - term trading [2]. Pigs - At the beginning of the month, the supply from the breeding side decreased, and there was reluctance to sell, but the downstream slaughter volume was limited, resulting in a basically balanced market supply and demand. In December, the supply is expected to increase, and the pig price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile structure. The market should pay attention to the rhythm of pressure release at the end of the year. The price of large pigs is not promising, and second - round fattening should enter the market cautiously. The strategy of inter - month reverse arbitrage can continue to be held, and the single - side price is expected to continue to bottom out [4]. Corn - In the short term, due to the mismatch between supply and demand, the futures price remains firm, but the supply pressure has not been released, so the price increase is limited, and the overall performance is a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent rhythm of corn supply [7]. Sugar - Affected by the supply outlook and weak technical aspects, the ICE raw sugar futures fell sharply. The new sugar in Guangxi has entered the market, driving down the price of Yunnan sugar. Although processed sugar and beet sugar are impacted to some extent, their prices are relatively firm, providing support for the price of new sugar in Guangxi. After the pre - sold sugar sources are sold out, the market is expected to rise, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures fell. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face hedging pressure when rising, but the pressure is not concentrated. The demand - side textile enterprises' procurement of cotton is dull, but the pre - sold cotton is being delivered successively, which eases the short - term supply pressure. The basis of spot sales is firm, and the Zhengzhou cotton has strong support below. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a slightly stronger range [12]. Eggs - The number of newly - laid hens remains low, and the number of old hens being slaughtered has increased significantly. As a result, the inventory of laying hens has entered a downward channel, and the production capacity is shrinking. The market supply pressure has been improved. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. The spot price of eggs may rebound slightly, but considering the overall pressure, the futures price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8560 yuan, up 50 yuan or 0.58% from the previous value; the futures price of Y2601 is 8288 yuan, up 44 yuan or 0.53%; the basis of Y2601 is 322 yuan, up 6 yuan or 1.90%. The US used 1053 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production in September [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8570 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of P2601 is 8652 yuan, up 26 yuan or 0.30%; the basis of P2601 is - 82 yuan, down 26 yuan or 46.43%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in January is 9077 yuan, up 82 yuan or 0.91% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10080 yuan, down 30 yuan or 0.30%; the futures price of OI601 is 9770 yuan, up 13 yuan or 0.13%; the basis of OI601 is 310 yuan, down 43 yuan or 12.18% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 202 yuan, down 2 yuan or 0.98%; the palm oil inter - month spread (01 - 05) is - 52 yuan, up 6 yuan or 11.54%; the soybean - palm oil spread of 2601 is - 612 yuan, up 26 yuan or 4.08%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread in the spot market is 1470 yuan, down 80 yuan or 5.16%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spread of 2601 is 1482 yuan, down 31 yuan or 2.05% [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of soybean meal in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.99%; the futures price of M2601 is 3039 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%; the basis of M2601 is 21 yuan, up 35 yuan or 250.00%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's盘面 import profit is 22 yuan, up 8 yuan or 57.1% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 40 yuan or - 1.63%; the futures price of RM2601 is 2423 yuan, down 29 yuan or - 1.18%; the basis of RM2601 is - 3 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 137.50%. The盘面 import profit of Canadian rapeseed with a 1 - month shipping schedule is 664 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 3.77% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of soybeans in Harbin is 3940 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4126 yuan, up 18 yuan or 0.44%; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 186 yuan, down 18 yuan or - 10.71%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3950 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3766 yuan, up 6 yuan or 0.16%; the basis of the main soybean - two contract is 184 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 3.16% [2]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 204 yuan, up 5 yuan or 2.51%; the rapeseed meal inter - month spread (01 - 05) is 20 yuan, down 17 yuan or - 45.95%; the oil - meal ratio in the spot market is 2.81, down 0.011 or - 0.40%; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.73, up 0.019 or 0.70%; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market is 640 yuan, up 70 yuan or 12.28%; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2601 is 616 yuan, up 24 yuan or 4.05% [2]. Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 11925 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.08%; the basis of live pigs 2601 is 11495 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.26%; the spread between live pigs 1 - 5 is - 430 yuan, up 40 yuan or 8.51%. The position of the main contract is 101740, down 5802 or - 5.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11400 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 11550 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning is 11300 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong is 12310 yuan, up 900 yuan; in Hunan is 11210 yuan, up 300 yuan; in Hebei is 11450 yuan, up 50 yuan [4]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 208687, down 1528 or - 0.73%; the weekly white - strip price is 18.28 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 17.00 yuan, down 0.5 yuan or - 2.86%; the weekly sow price is 32.47 yuan, unchanged; the weekly average slaughter weight is 129.22 kg, up 0.4 kg or 0.32%; the weekly self - breeding profit is - 148 yuan/head, down 12.1 yuan or - 8.90%; the weekly profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 249 yuan/head, down 14.2 yuan or - 6.05%; the monthly inventory of fertile sows is 39900000 heads, down 450000 heads or - 1.12% [4]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2601 is 2236 yuan, down 8 yuan or - 0.36%; the basis of the Jinzhou Port flat - warehouse price is 2290 yuan, unchanged; the spread between corn 1 - 5 is - 37 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 15.63%. The Shekou bulk grain price is 2440 yuan, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 54 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 2022 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 0.03%; the import profit is 418 yuan, up 1 yuan or 0.15%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 819, up 145 or 17.70%; the inventory is 2235598, up 27399 or 1.24%; the number of warehouse receipts is 60215, unchanged [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2601 is 2542 yuan, down 24 yuan or - 0.94%; the spot price in Changchun is 2590 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 48 yuan, up 24 yuan or 100.00%. The spread between corn starch 1 - 5 is - 74 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 17.46%; the spread between the starch - corn 01 contract on the disk is 306 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 4.97%; the profit of Shandong's starch enterprises is - 6 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 700.00%. The position is 326685, down 3818 or - 1.16%; the number of warehouse receipts is N/A [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 is 5405 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.09%; the futures price of sugar 2605 is 5333 yuan, up 6 yuan or 0.11%; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.74 cents/pound, down 0.47 cents or - 3.09%. The spread between sugar 1 - 5 is 72 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 1.37%. The position of the main contract is 350573, down 10944 or - 3.03%; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the number of valid forecasts is 183, unchanged [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5440 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.18%; the spot price in Kunming is 5430 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.18%. The basis in Nanning is 107 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 13.01%; the basis in Kunming is 97 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 14.16%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) is 4172 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.36%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) is 5289 yuan, up 18 yuan or 0.34%. The spread between imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) and Nanning is - 1268 yuan, up 25 yuan or 1.93%; the spread between imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) and Nanning is - 151 yuan, up 28 yuan or 15.64% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1048.00 million tons, up 88.00 million tons or 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons or 4.59%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.66 million tons, down 18.68 million tons or - 41.20%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate is 93.90%, down 2.51 percentage points or - 2.60%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 93.90%, up 4.30 percentage points or 4.80%. The industrial sugar inventory in the US is 68.21 million tons, down 47.79 million tons or - 41.20%; the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi is 44.21 million tons, up 17.07 million tons or 62.90%; the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons or 26.60%. The sugar import volume is 55.00 million tons, up 15.00 million tons or 37.50% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2601 is 13765 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.29%; the futures price of cotton 2605 is 13725 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.29%; the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.64 cents/pound, down 0.09 cents or - 0.14%. The spread between cotton 5 - 1 is - 40 yuan, unchanged. The position of the main contract is 546943, down 1275 or - 0.21%; the number of warehouse receipts is 2403, down 5; the number of valid forecasts is 1884, up 1621 [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14763 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.27%; the CC Index: 3128B is 14896 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.27%. The FC Index:M: 1% is 12956 yuan, up 21 yuan or 0.16%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1038 yuan, unchanged; the spread between 3128B and the 05 contract is 998 yuan, unchanged; the spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% is 1930 yuan, up 19 yuan or 0.97% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory is 363.97 million tons, up 70.91 million tons or 24.2%; the industrial

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The international sugar market is moving towards a situation of loose supply, lacking positive drivers, and the price of raw sugar remains low. In the domestic market, the new sugar - making season is fully underway. Some sugar mills' crushing progress is delayed due to rainfall. With the low international raw sugar price, processing enterprises have high sales profits. The import of sugar in October increased significantly, and the short - term sugar price shows no signs of stopping the decline, and is expected to continue its weak trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,387 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 406,329 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,410 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,693 sheets, unchanged from the previous period; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,779 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast is 183 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,097 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan/ton; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5,192 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 32 yuan/ton. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,255 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,480 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,595 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 602.29 million tons, with an increase of 26.66 million tons. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 241.88 million tons, unchanged. The total sugar exports from Brazil are 420.5 million tons, with an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,277 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,228 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 182 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 119 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 57 yuan/ton. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, with an increase of 20 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 390 million tons, with an increase of 74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, with an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, with a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.14 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 7, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 114,807 lots, an increase of 9,600 lots from the previous week. The long position was 177,486 lots, a decrease of 4,117 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 292,293 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots from the previous week. Brazil exported 2.564 million tons of sugar in the first three weeks of November, with an average daily export volume of 183,000 tons, a 3% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 178,400 tons in the whole of November last year. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.04 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at 14.82 cents a pound, continuing the volatile trend [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production and weak export data, while the Dalian palm oil futures are expected to try to break through 8900. - Soybean oil: The global crude oil supply - demand forecast in 2026 by OPEC has affected the soybean oil market. The domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and the spot basis is likely to remain stable [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weak, but there is an expectation of strengthening in the market tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA monthly report is expected to show little change in the ending stocks. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [7]. 2.4 Corn Industry - Corn prices in the Northeast are rising locally, and those in the North China are stable with a slight upward trend. The price increase and decrease are limited due to supply pressures and cost and policy support. The short - term corn price may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is restricted [8]. 2.5 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are falling, and the domestic cotton price is likely to be in a range - bound pattern due to hedging pressure and cost support, with weak downstream demand but rigid raw - material demand from textile enterprises [11]. 2.6 Sugar Industry - Brazilian rainfall may affect sugarcane crushing, and India's sugar export has uncertainties. The domestic sugar market is expected to be in a price - oscillation state, with the new - season sugarcane crushing in Guangxi likely to be postponed [13][14]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply of eggs remains under pressure as the laying - hen inventory is high in November. The consumption is weak, but the egg price is at a bottom - range, and 2512 short positions can be gradually closed at a low price below 3000 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8560, the futures price of Y2601 rose 0.34% to 8316, and the basis decreased 10.29% [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong dropped 0.58% to 8570, the futures price of P2601 rose 0.09% to 8752, and the basis decreased 46.77% [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu rose 1.48% to 10260, the futures price of OI601 rose 1.37% to 9975, and the basis rose 5.56% [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased 0.89%, that of palm oil decreased 13.33%, and that of rapeseed oil increased 9.11% [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The price of pig 2605 rose 0.82% to 12235, and that of pig 2601 rose 0.55% to 11860. - Spot: The spot prices in most regions decreased, such as in Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan [3]. 3.2.2 Industry Indicators - The sample - point slaughter volume decreased 0.74%, the white - strip price decreased 0.53%, and the piglet price decreased 15% [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3050, the futures price of M2601 rose 0.39% to 3071, and the basis decreased 133.33% [7]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 decreased 0.08% to 2492, and the basis increased 33.33% [7]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal increased 4.78%, and that of rapeseed meal increased 1.61% [7]. 3.4 Corn Industry 3.4.1 Price Changes - Corn: The futures price of corn 2601 rose 0.41% to 2186, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price rose 0.46% to 2200, and the basis rose 7.69% [8]. - Corn starch: The futures price of corn starch 2601 rose 0.68% to 2507, and the basis decreased 85% [8]. 3.4.2 Industry Indicators - The import profit of corn increased 4.66%, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased 14.54% [8]. 3.5 Cotton Industry 3.5.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of cotton 2605 decreased 0.22% to 13495, and that of cotton 2601 decreased 0.18% to 13490. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased 0.38% to 14614, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased 0.22% to 14819 [11]. 3.5.2 Industry Indicators - The commercial inventory increased 70.4% to 293.06 tons, and the industrial inventory increased 9.7% to 88.82 tons [11]. 3.6 Sugar Industry 3.6.1 Price Changes - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 rose 0.62% to 5512, and that of sugar 2605 rose 0.41% to 5433. - Spot: The Nanning spot price remained unchanged at 5660, and the Kunming spot price remained unchanged at 5540 [13]. 3.6.2 Industry Indicators - The national sugar production increased 12.03% to 1116.21 tons, and the national sugar sales increased 9.17% to 1048.00 tons [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Price Changes - The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased 0.75% to 3040, and the price of the egg 01 - contract decreased 1.72% to 3322. - The egg - producing area price decreased 0.25% to 2.99 yuan per catty [16]. 3.7.2 Industry Indicators - The egg - chicken feed ratio decreased 1.68% to 2.34, and the breeding profit decreased 8.51% to - 26.52 yuan per chicken [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE raw sugar futures rose on Monday as hopes that the US government shutdown might end soon boosted the commodity market. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed up 0.1 cent, or 0.70%, at 14.20 cents per pound [2]. - Brazil exported 420.5 million tons of sugar in October, a 13% year - on - year increase. However, from the start of the 2025/26 crushing season (April - March) to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports were 2195.68 million tons, a 5.27% year - on - year decrease. The supply pressure remains significant, but as the current crushing season nears its end, exports are expected to enter a seasonal decline [2]. - In the domestic market, due to import quotas and policy issues, the price decline is not obvious. Guangxi sugar mills are mainly focused on inventory reduction. The new crushing season in most areas starts in mid - to late November, with an expected delay, which provides some sales opportunities for old sugar. The overall market lacks significant driving factors, and prices are expected to remain low in the short term. Attention should be paid to the October import data [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 376,327 lots, an increase of 3084 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7721, an increase of 58. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 52,072 lots, an increase of 4379 lots [2]. - The total of valid warehouse receipt forecasts for sugar was 1183, a decrease of 122 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 3947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 4002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 4996 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar was 5068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5760 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume was 55 million tons, a decrease of 28 million tons. Brazil's total sugar exports were 420.5 million tons, an increase of 95.92 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1588 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 1533 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 539 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton; the price difference for Thai sugar was 467 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 53.91 million tons, an increase of 8.5 million tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 1591.7 million tons, a decrease of 184.1 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 6.79%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.26%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 6.85%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 68.57 million tons of sugar in the first week of November, with an average daily export volume of 13.71 million tons, a 23% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 17.84 million tons in November of the previous year. The total export volume in November of the previous year was 339.02 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's concern has eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is significant, but the raw sugar price has limited rebound due to overall production increase. Domestic spot prices are continuously falling, with average trading volume, and downstream demand is in seasonal decline. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the futures price is gradually supported by cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5428 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 426415 hands (a decrease of 15033 hands), the number of warehouse receipts is 8407 (a decrease of 11), the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 75785 hands, and the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4254 yuan/ton (a decrease of 66 yuan/ton) [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 5396 yuan/ton (a decrease of 87 yuan/ton), the estimated import price of Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 5470 yuan/ton, the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5740 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), the spot price in Nanning is 5790 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5800 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares (a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares), the national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The national sugar sales rate is 72.69% (an increase of 7.47 percentage points), the monthly sugar import volume is 550000 tons (a decrease of 280000 tons), the total Brazilian sugar exports are 324.58 million tons (an increase of 96 million tons), the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1324 yuan/ton, and the price difference (outside quota, 50% tariff) is 239 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons (an increase of 4.41 million tons), and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons (a decrease of 20.8 million tons) [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07% (a decrease of 0.41 percentage points), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.07% (a decrease of 0.41 percentage points), the 20 - day historical volatility is 8.01% (a decrease of 0.17 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.15% (a decrease of 0.04 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - In September 2025, China's sugar imports were 550000 tons, a decrease of about 280000 tons from the previous month and a 35.8% increase year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 3.16 million tons, a 270000 - ton or 9.4% increase year - on - year. In the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugar - cane, a 5.18% year - on - year increase, produced 3.14 million tons of sugar, a 10.76% year - on - year increase, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term bearish view on the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract [2] Report's Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rebounded after hitting a nearly four - and - a - half - year low on Tuesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.27 cents, or 1.70%, to settle at 15.88 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as of September, the combined industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan was 64.68 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of over 60%. The inventory was significantly higher than that of the previous crushing season. Additionally, sugar mills in the northern beet - producing areas have started production, and the forecasted arrival quantity of out - of - quota raw sugar in September is 460,000 tons, indicating an increasing supply. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,403 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 433,188 lots, with an increase of 11,032 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8,438, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75,631 lots, a decrease of 7,196 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,426 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 4,446 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,621 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,647 yuan/ton [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 5,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it is 5,840 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, and the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, an increase of 44.98 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 89.98%. The monthly import volume of sugar is 830,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 3.2458 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 454,100 tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.7758 million tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.81%, and that of at - the - money put options is 8.81%, an increase of 0.49%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.26%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.18%, an increase of 0.49% [2] Industry News - India's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is approaching. The impact of floods in major producing states needs to be evaluated, and institutions are cautious about the production volume [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market shows that in August 2025, China's sugar imports increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the upcoming start of sugar mills in the north, and a slight expected increase in sugar production in the new year, the spot price is expected to weaken steadily. Although the typhoon in the western Guangdong region brought strong winds and heavy rains, its impact on sugarcane is less than last year's typhoon, and the short - term market sentiment may recover. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5485 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the main contract position is 431,349 hands, down 7,657 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 9,793, down 61; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 79,526 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Thai sugar (within quota) are not provided; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 4,384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is not provided [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.59%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly sugar import volume is 830,000 tons, up 90,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 374.4 million tons, up 15.03 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,306 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,348 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 124 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 178 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, up 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,775.8 million tons, down 20.8 million tons [2]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.07%, down 0.11 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.54%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.34%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. 7. Industry News - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed almost flat, pressured by the prospect of sufficient supply, closing down 0.02 cents, or 0.10%, at 16.13 cents per pound. Overnight, the sugar 2601 contract closed up 0.60% [2].