Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the pig farming industry, with a focus on low-cost and high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Lihua Agricultural [68]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a phase of quality improvement after a period of rapid expansion and excess profits following the African swine fever outbreak [52][61]. - The average price of live pigs has shown stability with fluctuations, while the price of piglets has experienced a rise followed by a decline due to supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand [9][14]. - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising has remained stable, while the profitability of purchasing piglets has been volatile, indicating a challenging environment for external sourcing [14][64]. - The supply of breeding sows has stabilized, with a slight increase in the number of newborn piglets, which may exert pressure on pig prices in the latter half of the year [15][41]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards increased efficiency in breeding, with key metrics such as the number of healthy piglets per litter and survival rates remaining high [20][22]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.56 yuan/kg as of June 27, 2023, reflecting a 7.6% decrease since the beginning of the year but a 0.9% increase year-on-year [9]. - Piglet prices peaked in April 2023 but have since declined due to increased supply and lower demand [9]. Profitability - Self-breeding operations have maintained profitability, while external piglet sourcing has faced longer periods of loss, with an average loss of 132 yuan per head reported as of June 27, 2023 [14]. - The report indicates that the profitability of the industry is expected to improve as pig prices stabilize and the supply-demand balance adjusts [68]. Supply Dynamics - The number of newborn piglets increased by 10.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, indicating a potential increase in supply pressure on pig prices [15]. - The number of breeding sows has stabilized, with a slight increase noted, suggesting a balanced supply situation [15][41]. Cost Trends - The costs of corn and soybean meal have shown a downward trend compared to last year, contributing to lower overall breeding costs for both large-scale and small-scale farms [32]. - The report highlights that the cost control measures adopted by listed pig companies have become a core competitive advantage [55]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the second half of the year due to reduced supply pressure and seasonal demand increases [42][68]. - The industry is expected to continue focusing on quality improvement and cost efficiency as key drivers of profitability moving forward [68].

美国生猪养殖业的规模化启示 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 对标美国生猪养殖产业规模化进程，我们认为当前中国生猪养殖集中度仍有较大的提升空间。在行业长期 规模化趋势下，行业各方面也都将发生深刻变革：（1）成本：规模化加速阶段也是养殖效率提升最快的 阶段，有望带动实际成本的下降。规模化完成后，行业养殖技术的革新会推动养殖效率的进一步提升，但 整体优化幅度有所放缓。（2）周期长度：养殖规模化将拉长猪价波动周期，并在部分时间段呈现不规律 化，但不会彻底消除周期。（3）波动幅度：周期性的猪价振幅并不一定会随着养殖规模化的发展而缩 窄，阶段性猪价的振幅可能会收敛或呈现不规律变化。具体而言，规模化加速期周期波动幅度尤其是下行 周期波动幅度明显增大；规模化完成后猪价超跌现象明显改善，但上 ...