Group 1 - Vietnam's pork consumption market is expanding due to population growth and increasing consumer demand, with a projected pork consumption of 3.88 million tons in 2024, ranking fourth globally [1] - The per capita pork consumption in Vietnam is expected to reach 38.3 kg/year in 2024, second only to China, indicating a high demand for pork [1] - Vietnam's pig farming industry is currently the sixth largest in the world, with a pig stock of 25.546 million heads in 2023, trailing only China in Asia [1] Group 2 - The African swine fever (ASF) has significantly impacted Vietnam's pig farming, with the current pig stock still 11.1% lower than pre-ASF levels in 2018, leading to an accelerated exit of small-scale farmers from the market [2] - The Vietnamese pig farming sector is experiencing a shift towards larger-scale operations, driven by policy support and the need for improved biosecurity and breeding systems [2] - The industry is currently in a development phase that presents significant growth opportunities for large-scale enterprises [2] Group 3 - Local and multinational companies are increasingly integrating the pig industry chain in Vietnam, expanding from traditional feed businesses to pig farming, supported by favorable policies for foreign direct investment (FDI) [3] - In 2022, 81 foreign direct investment projects were established in Vietnam's pig farming sector, accounting for over 12% of the total FDI in the country that year [3] - The market is still in a phase of rapid expansion, with leading pig farming companies having substantial room for market share growth [3]

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the pig farming industry, with a focus on low-cost and high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Shennong Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Lihua Agricultural [68]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a phase of quality improvement after a period of rapid expansion and excess profits following the African swine fever outbreak [52][61]. - The average price of live pigs has shown stability with fluctuations, while the price of piglets has experienced a rise followed by a decline due to supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand [9][14]. - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising has remained stable, while the profitability of purchasing piglets has been volatile, indicating a challenging environment for external sourcing [14][64]. - The supply of breeding sows has stabilized, with a slight increase in the number of newborn piglets, which may exert pressure on pig prices in the latter half of the year [15][41]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards increased efficiency in breeding, with key metrics such as the number of healthy piglets per litter and survival rates remaining high [20][22]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.56 yuan/kg as of June 27, 2023, reflecting a 7.6% decrease since the beginning of the year but a 0.9% increase year-on-year [9]. - Piglet prices peaked in April 2023 but have since declined due to increased supply and lower demand [9]. Profitability - Self-breeding operations have maintained profitability, while external piglet sourcing has faced longer periods of loss, with an average loss of 132 yuan per head reported as of June 27, 2023 [14]. - The report indicates that the profitability of the industry is expected to improve as pig prices stabilize and the supply-demand balance adjusts [68]. Supply Dynamics - The number of newborn piglets increased by 10.2% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, indicating a potential increase in supply pressure on pig prices [15]. - The number of breeding sows has stabilized, with a slight increase noted, suggesting a balanced supply situation [15][41]. Cost Trends - The costs of corn and soybean meal have shown a downward trend compared to last year, contributing to lower overall breeding costs for both large-scale and small-scale farms [32]. - The report highlights that the cost control measures adopted by listed pig companies have become a core competitive advantage [55]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the second half of the year due to reduced supply pressure and seasonal demand increases [42][68]. - The industry is expected to continue focusing on quality improvement and cost efficiency as key drivers of profitability moving forward [68].

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，从行业成长角度来看，生猪养殖行业正处于规模化加速过程 中，龙头企业通过一体化整合，正在向"养殖-屠宰-流通"全产业链延伸，未来成长空间广阔。从周期角 度来看，2024年行业迎来景气回升，但随后产业端迅速补充母猪产能、提升生产效率，导致25年H1开 始全国生猪供给压力重回高位，低价预期之下，去产能逻辑再度兑现具备确定性。考虑到2024年行业高 景气持续性较短，养殖主体资产负债表修复有限，在此背景下，25年行业一旦再度步入深亏，届时的产 能去化极有可能表现为猪舍等长期资产的出清，而更为彻底的产能出清会大幅提升行业在下轮周期中的 景气持续性。 光大证券主要观点如下： 美国生猪养殖业的规模化启示 风险分析：重大动物疫情发生风险;原料价格波动风险;生猪价格不及预期;生猪出栏量不达预期。 对标美国生猪养殖产业规模化进程，该行认为当前中国生猪养殖集中度仍有较大的提升空间。在行业长 期规模化趋势下，行业各方面也都将发生深刻变革： (1)成本：规模化加速阶段也是养殖效率提升最快的阶段，有望带动实际成本的下降。规模化完成后， 行业养殖技术的革新会推动养殖效率的进一步提升，但整体优化幅度有所 ...

美国生猪养殖业的规模化启示 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 对标美国生猪养殖产业规模化进程，我们认为当前中国生猪养殖集中度仍有较大的提升空间。在行业长期 规模化趋势下，行业各方面也都将发生深刻变革：（1）成本：规模化加速阶段也是养殖效率提升最快的 阶段，有望带动实际成本的下降。规模化完成后，行业养殖技术的革新会推动养殖效率的进一步提升，但 整体优化幅度有所放缓。（2）周期长度：养殖规模化将拉长猪价波动周期，并在部分时间段呈现不规律 化，但不会彻底消除周期。（3）波动幅度：周期性的猪价振幅并不一定会随着养殖规模化的发展而缩 窄，阶段性猪价的振幅可能会收敛或呈现不规律变化。具体而言，规模化加速期周期波动幅度尤其是下行 周期波动幅度明显增大；规模化完成后猪价超跌现象明显改善，但上 ...