1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the price of live pigs will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 22, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,706 lots today, with a position of approximately 94,000 lots. The highest price today was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,780 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,795 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not the periods of large consumption increments, and the demand has limited support for pig prices. The long - side logic includes that the farming sector has reduced the weight of pigs, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only, not as investment advice) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 22, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous period, with a decline rate of 0.31%. The average live pig slaughter price in Henan was 12.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, with a decline rate of 0.08%. The average live pig slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 12.34 yuan/kg [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.04%; the 03 contract was 12,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%; the 05 contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.05%; the 07 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.38%; the 09 contract was 12,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.96%; the 11 contract was 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.23% [6]. - The basis of the main contract in Henan was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period, with an increase rate of 26.67% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-18 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, Pig Analyst [5] - Contact: Email - shixy@hrrdqh.com, Phone - 0371-69106756 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall view on the pig market is weak - oscillating. The main reasons are that the pig supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, so there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Dynamics - On June 17, the number of registered pig warehouse receipts was 750 lots. The LH2507 contract focuses on the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are oscillating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 927 lots today, with a position of about 80,000 lots, a maximum price of 13,855 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,755 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,815 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of sows capable of reproduction, the pig supply is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the pig slaughter volume will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may oscillate and adjust [3]. - Market bearish logic: slow weight reduction in the breeding end, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. Bullish logic: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and limited increase in future slaughter volume while gradually entering the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak - oscillating. The core logic is that the pig slaughter volume in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. It is recommended to wait and see for the 09 contract as its price is currently in a relatively reasonable range [4]. 4. Market Data - On June 17, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.23 yuan/kg, a 0.14% increase from the previous day. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also increased slightly. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 09, and 11 contracts increased slightly, while the 03, 05 contracts decreased. The main basis in Henan decreased by 4.81% [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-06 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, a pig analyst with futures qualification F03086321 and trading consultation qualification Z0019355 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4] - The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4] - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4] - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On June 5, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0 [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games. The far-month contracts are affected by the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future supply, showing a weak and fluctuating trend [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 999 lots today, with a position of approximately 77,600 lots. The highest price was 13,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,445 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,485 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of sow inventory, the pig supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the pig supply in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: ① Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; ② Future supply is expected to continue to increase; ③ Q2 and Q3 are not the peak consumption seasons, and demand provides limited support for pig prices. Bullish logic: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen pork inventory, which can support pig prices; ② Spot prices are firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as bears expect; ③ Although future supply will increase, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak pig consumption season [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Core logic: ① Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; ② The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly; ③ If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows; ④ Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Market Overview - On June 5, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.49% from the previous day. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.17 yuan/kg and 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg (0.84%) and 0.1 yuan/kg (0.71%) respectively [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined slightly, except for the 05 and 11 contracts, which increased by 0.12% and 0.15% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan was 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 14.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - Includes the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the spread between the 09-11 contracts, and the spread between the 11-01 contracts [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, hog prices may reach new lows [4] - Based on sow and piglet data, hog supplies in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 will be abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices [4] - Demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for hog prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4] - Although the current hog slaughter weight has slightly decreased, it remains at a high level, which is bearish for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may hit new lows [4] - Due to high uncertainty in the long - term spot price reaching new lows and weak short - term market weight - reduction drivers, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory I. Market Overview - On June 4, the number of registered hog futures warehouse receipts was 0 hands [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly about futures - spot convergence and delivery game. The far - month contracts are oscillating weakly due to the expected decline in spot prices and possible increase in future slaughter volume [2] - The main contract (LH2509) added 1,200 lots today, with a position of about 78,600 lots. The highest price was 13,520 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,390 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,490 yuan/ton [2] - The national average hog slaughter price on June 4 was 14.28 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.56%) from the previous day. In Henan, it was 14.29 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg (-0.97%); in Sichuan, it was 14.11 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg (-0.56%) [6] - Among futures prices, the 07 - contract price increased by 45 yuan/ton (0.34%), while the 09 - contract price decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [6] - The main basis in Henan was 800 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton (-13.04%) from the previous day [6] II. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Bearish factors include: the breeding side has not yet reduced the hog weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons, so demand support for hog prices is limited [3] - Bullish factors include: there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3] III. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may be new lows [4] - Due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction drivers, and the futures price being in a reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see [4]