1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view is that the price of live pigs will experience a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the monthly hog slaughter volume may increase until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 22, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots [2]. - In the short term, there is limited room for the spot price to continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its positions by 2,706 lots today, with a position of approximately 94,000 lots. The highest price today was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,780 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,795 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen in a volatile manner [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the slaughter weight has stopped falling and increased, the "inventory" pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume remains high; September and October are not the periods of large consumption increments, and the demand has limited support for pig prices. The long - side logic includes that the farming sector has reduced the weight of pigs, which is beneficial for the future market; consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is a weak and volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which will weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce the weight of pigs and support the pig price to some extent; if the price weakness continues, a negative cycle may form, and if this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and investors can consider conducting a reverse spread on the 11 - 01 contracts (for reference only, not as investment advice) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 22, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous period, with a decline rate of 0.31%. The average live pig slaughter price in Henan was 12.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, with a decline rate of 0.08%. The average live pig slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 12.34 yuan/kg [6]. - Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.04%; the 03 contract was 12,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.66%; the 05 contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.05%; the 07 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 1.38%; the 09 contract was 12,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.96%; the 11 contract was 12,795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.23% [6]. - The basis of the main contract in Henan was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period, with an increase rate of 26.67% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].

另存为PDF 生猪日报 | 2025-06-18 【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 1、6月17日，生猪注册仓单750手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓927手，持仓约8万手，最高价13855元/吨，最 低价13755元/吨，收盘于13815元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端降重缓慢，供应压力尚未完全释放；②后续 出栏量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限； 多头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格韧性强，说 明供需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度 逐渐进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：震荡偏弱； 2、核心逻辑： 1） 从母猪、仔猪数据看，2025年 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-06 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, a pig analyst with futures qualification F03086321 and trading consultation qualification Z0019355 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4] - The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4] - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4] - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On June 5, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0 [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games. The far-month contracts are affected by the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future supply, showing a weak and fluctuating trend [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 999 lots today, with a position of approximately 77,600 lots. The highest price was 13,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,445 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,485 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of sow inventory, the pig supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the pig supply in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: ① Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; ② Future supply is expected to continue to increase; ③ Q2 and Q3 are not the peak consumption seasons, and demand provides limited support for pig prices. Bullish logic: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen pork inventory, which can support pig prices; ② Spot prices are firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as bears expect; ③ Although future supply will increase, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak pig consumption season [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Core logic: ① Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; ② The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly; ③ If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows; ④ Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Market Overview - On June 5, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.49% from the previous day. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.17 yuan/kg and 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg (0.84%) and 0.1 yuan/kg (0.71%) respectively [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined slightly, except for the 05 and 11 contracts, which increased by 0.12% and 0.15% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan was 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 14.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - Includes the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the spread between the 09-11 contracts, and the spread between the 11-01 contracts [14]

【期价震荡调整】 【市场动态】 生猪日报 | 2025-06-05 另存为PDF 1、6月4日，生猪注册仓单0手； 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主，远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行； 3、主力合约（LH2509）今日增仓1200手，持仓约7.86万手，最高价13520元/ 吨，最低价13390元/吨，收盘于13490元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看，3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加，但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看，2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加；需求端来看，上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季，下半年属需求旺季； 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看，肥标差或震荡调整； 3、市场多空逻辑： 空头：①养殖端尚未进行降重，实则利空后市；②后续出栏 量有望持续增加；③二三季度尚未到消费旺季，需求对猪价的支撑有限；多 头：①冻品库存仍有增加的空间，能给猪价以支撑；②现货价格坚挺，说明供 需不像空头想的那么宽松；③后续出栏虽有增量但幅度有限，且三四季度逐渐 进入生猪消费旺季。 【策略建议】 1、观点：短期猪价或震荡，中长期来看猪价或仍有新低可能； 2、核心逻辑： 1） ...