Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs will be accelerated, and the pressure before the festival will increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 12,680 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 350 yuan/ton year-on-year), and in Guangdong is 12,060 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton year-on-year) [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 11,220 yuan/ton (up 55 yuan/ton year-on-year), 11,650 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,345 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig futures contract 2603 is 69,198 lots (an increase of 13,547 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 101,717 lots (a decrease of 16,937 lots compared to the previous day); the trading volume of contract 2605 is 37,941 lots (an increase of 8,804 lots), with an open interest of 129,133 lots (an increase of 4,384 lots); the trading volume of contract 2607 is 5,125 lots (an increase of 838 lots), with an open interest of 47,024 lots (an increase of 358 lots) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2603, 2605, and 2607 are 1,460 yuan/ton (down 55 yuan/ton year-on-year), 1,030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 335 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the price spreads between contracts 3 - 5 and 5 - 7 are -430 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton year-on-year) and -695 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2]. 3.2 Market Information - On January 30th, the warehouse receipt price of the Lianzhou delivery warehouse was close to 11,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the value range being integers within the [-2, 2] interval [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Bullish [3] - Strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise in spot pig prices is driven by the imbalance of inventory structure, not a fundamental change in the supply - demand fundamentals. The overall supply of the market remains loose, and the rebound of pig prices is limited. The growth rate of pig supply is still high, while the demand is not strong enough. It is recommended to short the January contract on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [3]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - 1.1 Pig Spot Price: The report shows the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, with data from Wind [5][6][7]. - 1.2 Pig Basis: It presents the basis of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [9][10][11]. - 1.3 Pig Price Spread: The report shows the price spreads of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [13][15]. - 1.4 Futures Institutional Net Positions: It shows the long - to - short ratios of institutional positions in the January and March pig futures contracts, with data from Wind [17][18][19]. Supply Analysis - 2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows is presented, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [21][23]. - 2.2 Piglet Supply: It shows the Henan piglet - to - pig price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, with data from MySteel [25]. - 2.3 Pig Slaughter: The average weight of commercial pigs sold by sample enterprises and the slaughter structure are shown, with data from MySteel [28][30]. - 2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread: The daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price spread are presented, with data from MySteel [31][32][33]. Demand Analysis - 3.1 Pig Slaughter: The daily slaughter rate of key pig slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of slaughter gross profit are shown, with data from MySteel [34][35][36]. - 3.2 Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the frozen product storage rate, are presented [37][38]. - 3.3 Substitutes: The seasonal charts of the price ratios between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are shown, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [40][41][42]. Profit Analysis - 4.1 Breeding Profit: The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets are presented, as well as the seasonal chart of self - breeding and self - raising profits [43][44]. - 4.2 Pig - to - Grain Price Ratio: The pig - to - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart are shown [45][46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The spot performance of live pigs is below expectations, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live - pig spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Guangdong's is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live - pig 2509 contract is 13,795 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35; the 2511 contract is 13,910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 70; the 2601 contract is 14,240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 95 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - pig 2509 contract is 1,861 lots, a decrease of 478 from the previous day, and the open interest is 9,733 lots, a decrease of 1,090 from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 29,558 lots, a decrease of 7,223, and an open interest of 70,029 lots, a decrease of 3,231; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 11,414 lots, a decrease of 917, and an open interest of 48,013 lots, a decrease of 174 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live - pig 2509 contract is - 15 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 2511 contract's basis is - 130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70; the 2601 contract's basis is - 460 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95; the 9 - 11 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 [2] 2. Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish view and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4]