Report Industry Investment Ratings - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Bullish [3] - Strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The short - term rise in spot pig prices is driven by the imbalance of inventory structure, not a fundamental change in the supply - demand fundamentals. The overall supply of the market remains loose, and the rebound of pig prices is limited. The growth rate of pig supply is still high, while the demand is not strong enough. It is recommended to short the January contract on rallies for the medium - to - long - term and wait and see in the short - term [3]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - 1.1 Pig Spot Price: The report shows the Henan pig price and its seasonal chart, with data from Wind [5][6][7]. - 1.2 Pig Basis: It presents the basis of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [9][10][11]. - 1.3 Pig Price Spread: The report shows the price spreads of each pig futures contract, with data from the Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [13][15]. - 1.4 Futures Institutional Net Positions: It shows the long - to - short ratios of institutional positions in the January and March pig futures contracts, with data from Wind [17][18][19]. Supply Analysis - 2.1 Breeding Sows Inventory: The inventory of breeding sows is presented, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [21][23]. - 2.2 Piglet Supply: It shows the Henan piglet - to - pig price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, with data from MySteel [25]. - 2.3 Pig Slaughter: The average weight of commercial pigs sold by sample enterprises and the slaughter structure are shown, with data from MySteel [28][30]. - 2.4 Standard - Fat Price Spread: The daily and seasonal charts of the standard - fat price spread are presented, with data from MySteel [31][32][33]. Demand Analysis - 3.1 Pig Slaughter: The daily slaughter rate of key pig slaughtering enterprises and the seasonal chart of slaughter gross profit are shown, with data from MySteel [34][35][36]. - 3.2 Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product storage rate and fresh - meat efficiency of key slaughtering enterprises, as well as the seasonal chart of the frozen product storage rate, are presented [37][38]. - 3.3 Substitutes: The seasonal charts of the price ratios between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are shown, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [40][41][42]. Profit Analysis - 4.1 Breeding Profit: The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets are presented, as well as the seasonal chart of self - breeding and self - raising profits [43][44]. - 4.2 Pig - to - Grain Price Ratio: The pig - to - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized Chinese cities and its seasonal chart are shown [45][46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The spot performance of live pigs is below expectations, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live - pig spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Guangdong's is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live - pig 2509 contract is 13,795 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35; the 2511 contract is 13,910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 70; the 2601 contract is 14,240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 95 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - pig 2509 contract is 1,861 lots, a decrease of 478 from the previous day, and the open interest is 9,733 lots, a decrease of 1,090 from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 29,558 lots, a decrease of 7,223, and an open interest of 70,029 lots, a decrease of 3,231; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 11,414 lots, a decrease of 917, and an open interest of 48,013 lots, a decrease of 174 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live - pig 2509 contract is - 15 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 2511 contract's basis is - 130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70; the 2601 contract's basis is - 460 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95; the 9 - 11 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 [2] 2. Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish view and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4]