Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing weak price trends in early February 2026 due to abundant supply and lower-than-usual pre-Spring Festival stocking levels, with expectations of a price decline post-Festival [3][13]. Group 1: Historical Analysis of Pig Slaughter Volume - Historical data shows that pig slaughter volumes typically increase before the Spring Festival, with significant growth observed in most years from 2019 to 2025, except for 2019. The highest increase was recorded in 2024 at 131.46% [3][4]. - The peak slaughter volume usually occurs between the 24th and 26th day of the lunar month, with expectations for 2026 to follow this trend [3][4]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - In January 2026, pig slaughter volumes showed a month-on-month decline, but began to increase again towards the end of the month, with a cumulative increase of 35.29% by February 9 [4][15]. - The pre-Festival stocking period is limited this year, which may restrict the support for pig prices [15]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Forecast for February and March - February is expected to see an increase in both daily slaughter and outflow volumes, with a projected month-on-month increase of 1.07% in slaughter volume, but overall supply is anticipated to exceed demand, leading to a potential decline in average prices [8][17]. - March is likely to continue the trend of increased supply, with a forecasted 3.86% rise in daily outflow, while demand remains low, suggesting a continued oversupply situation [9][17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Market Reactions - The market may experience a brief price increase before the end of February, but a downward trend is expected as the stocking period concludes, with average prices projected between 11.0 and 11.4 yuan per kilogram [11][20]. - Low prices may stimulate demand from slaughterhouses for storage and lead to increased restocking activities, potentially resulting in a rebound in prices towards the end of March, with estimates of 11.6 to 12.0 yuan per kilogram [20].

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 02 月 05 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，4日生猪主力2605合约小幅高开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高11800 元/吨，最低 11580 元/吨，收盘报 11735 元/吨，较 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 生猪行情： 期货方面，30 日生猪主力 2603 合约平开后冲高回落震荡走高，尾盘收阳， 最高 11880 元/吨，最低 11695 元/吨，收盘报 11790 元/吨，较昨日涨 0.47%，指 数总持仓减少 25 ...